The Novice Tipster

  1st Modus 11/1 - 60 2nd Morning Vicar 10/1 - 35 3rd Huntsman Son 16/1 - 30 3rd Relentless Dreamer 40/1 - 30 Over the National fences anything can happen and this system bar Modus is so close. A race like this the horse can need a lot of luck so even the best of stats wont help.  Modus is a lovely old boy and has been around the block but one thing is for sure, he runs so well fresh. In fact his stats when off for over 100 days his stats are 2, 1, 3, 1, 6, 1,  his Aintree form is 11, 5, 1, 3. The 5, 1, 3, were over fences and the 5th was a grade 1. and the 3rd was over C&D over the National course last time out in December. He runs off the same mark and he was beatn just under 2L by Sir Jack Yeats who came 2nd and where as Modus is on the same mark, Sir Jack Yeats has gone up 5lb, so Modus could easily turn the form around if he doesnt try to walk through Valentines again. Will be interesting to see how Semetagal has done on Thursday as both these were well clear of ...

  1st Wilde About Oscar 9/2 - 90 2nd Monte Cristo 9/1 - 55 3rd Nightboattoclyro 20/1 - 50 3rd Jacamar 20/1 - 50 This race was incredibly close race for all but Wild About Oscar, who ran away here.  My biggest worry is that only 2 horses in the last 23 years has won over the rating of 145, at 150 it will be hard. He is a C&D winner in a Class 4 Novice, he won that with ease. Is 2/2 on Good to Soft. His last race the average rating was 135 and this race is 136. He is 4lb higher since that win. Its a big ask carrying this weight but he is only 6 and his potentially still improving over hurdles and 6yo have a good record in this race. Monte Cristo, is also unexposed over hurdles and is only 5. He was a easy winner over 2m 5f at Kempton in a Class 3. In fact he won very cosily, and the 2nd placed horse has won since and the 3rd placed horse has since come 2nd in a Grade 3. Also had Jarveys Plate back in 6th. So the potential is there. He then went to the Coral Cup and was press...

  Aintree   1:45 Ratings: Hitman Going: The Shunter/Eldorado Allen Speed:   Umbrigado My Selection: Umbrigado 10/1   2:20 Ratings: Monmiral Going: Monmiral Speed:   Fiveandtwenty My Selection: Monmiral 10/11   2:50 Ratings: Native River Going: Tiger Roll Speed:   Clondaw Castle My Selection: Clondaw Castle 13/2   3:25 Ratings: Buveur D’air Going: Mcfabulous Speed:   Buzz My Selection: Buveur D’air12/1   4:05 Ratings: Cat Tiger Going: Sametagel Speed:   Killaro Boy My Selection: Sametagel 5/1   4:40 Ratings: Moon Over Germany Going: Destrier Speed:   Getaway Trump My Selection: Getaway Trump 8/1   5:15 Ratings: Elle Est Belle Going: Miss Lamb Speed:   Elle Est Belle My Selection: Elle Est Belle 5/2

  1st Semetagel 6/1 -50 2nd Ravished 33/1 - 40 2nd Kashmir Peak 50/1 - 40 2nd Greensalt 100/1 - 40 3rd Bishops Road 66/1 -35 Going over the National fences is tough and anything can happen, this system as you can see is very close but im hoping the winner is named above. But it all does depend on a clear round.  Semetagel came 6th in the Grand Sefton in December over C&D off 142, today he arrives off 138, he also came 3rd in the Grand Sefton in 2017 off 144, so although he is now 12, all his 3 runs have been on soft or heavy and i actually think he would like the better ground with his form on good is 2, 1, 2, 8, 3. This is probably been his aim all year so will be primed for this. He came 2nd in a Hunter Chases in February who was carrying 11lb less than him, and the winner has since gone on to win again, He is sure to give his best. Ravished pulled up in the Hunters Chase at Cheltenham and the race before that, which is worrying, however the predicted good ground should ...

  1st Grey Diamond 12/1 - 70 2nd Getaway Trump 5/1 - 50 2n Brelan D'as 33/1 - 50 3rd Jan Maat 20/1 - 45 Grey Diamond will aprreciate the better ground here with stats on good of 1, 4, 5, 4, F, 1, 3, 2, 1. His last win he beat Dostal Phil quite cosily, there was a 10lb difference that day with Dostal Phil carrying 10lb more and today only 5lb difference. Dostal Phil seems to want the rain which he wont get here. The average rating for that race was 136, and this race its 137, so for a Class 3 race it was very competitive. Grey Diamond has only run 5 times over fences and this is his toughest test to date,  he could still be improving. Track should suit well as he actually runs very well on flat tracks, with stats of 1, F, 3, 1. So he could run well.  Getaway Trump has a very big weight here, and thats my biggest concern. Only 2 horses in the last 23 years have carried more than 11st 8lb to victory. Up 9lb for his latest victory, and he loves this ground, his stats on good ...

  1st Agusta Gold 9/1 - 60 2nd Court Maid 16/1 - 50 3rd Fitzhenry 28/1 - 45 3rd Snugsborough Benny 66/1 - 45 As you see Agusta Gold is clear here only just, 4th placed Latest Exhibition, Espanitio Bello, Run Wild Fred and Enjoy D'allen all scored 40  Agusta Gold is extremely consistant, so consistant she seems ok on any ground. She actually won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown last year, so we know the distance today will not be an issue. Her stats at Fairyhouse are 2, 3, 1. She runs off a career high mark here which means she needs to find more, and that would be a worry however, hre last run over fences was on her season debut after 320 days off, the average handicap mark in that race was 141 and today its 143. the biggest difference was that it was over 2m 5f on heavy and taday its 3m 5f on yielding. She beat Moyhenna that day who is not only 1lb lower than that run, has a 5lb claimer on where as Agusta Gold is up 7lb, so thats a big swing in Moyhennas favour. Moyhen...

  Fairyhouse   2:05 Ratings: Papal Lodge Going: Papal Lodge Speed:   John Ess My Selection: Papal Lodge 16/1   2:40 Ratings: Teahupoo Going: Nazine/Coventry Speed:   Busselton My Selection: Teahupoo 4/5   3:15 Ratings: Aarons Day Going: Red Gerry Speed:   Red Gerry My Selection: Red Gerry 16/1   3:50 Ratings: Stormy Ireland Going: Stormy Ireland Speed:   Unexpected Depth My Selection: Stormy Ireland 8/1   4:20 Ratings: Fakir D’oudairies Going: Snow Falcon/Battleoverdoyen Speed:   Fakir D’oudairies My Selection: Fakir D’oudairies 1/1   5:00 Ratings: Court Maid Going: Latest Exhibition Speed:   Escaria Ten My Selection: Court Maid 16/1   5:40 Ratings: Paper Lantern Going: Smoking Gun Speed:   Valdieu My Selection: Paper Lantern 50/1