The Novice Tipster

Doncaster 1:50 Stalls : none Ratings: Justanotherbottle Going: Compas Scoobie Speed:   Spring Loaded My Selection: Compas Scoobie 14/1 2:25 Stalls : none Ratings: Breton Rock Going: Home Of The Brave Speed:   Home Of The Brave My Selection: Home Of The Brave 7/2 3:00 Stalls : none Ratings: Dream Today Going: Mythical Magic and Red Mist Speed:   Hey Gaman My Selection: Mythical Magic 5/2 3:35 Stalls : none Ratings: Defoe Going: Coronet Speed:   Stradivarius My Selection: Defoe 11/2 4:10 Stalls : Ratings: none Going: Rhosneigr Speed:   Rhosneigr My Selection: Rhosneigr 7/2 4:45 Stalls : none Ratings: Bronze Angel Going: Youre Fired/Just Hiss Speed:   Youre Fired My Selection: You’re Fired 25/1 5:55 Stalls : King Bolete Ratings: Game Starter Going: Nietzsche Speed:   Nietzsche My Selection: Nietzsche 12/1

3:05 Lingfield - Lunar Maria 7/2 4:55 Gowran Park - Lucky Mistake 10/1 5:25 Lingfield - Arctic Flower 11/4 5:30 Gowran Park - Pass The Ball 25/1 5:55 Doncaster - Game Starter 10/11

Chester - Heavy 1:30 Show Palace 11/4 (good stall) - Ballesteros 4/1 is good but awful stall 2:05 Porchy Party 4/1 2:40 Soldier In Action 11/4 3:15 Kings Pavilion 6/1 (Fingals Cave 20/1) 3:50 Flere Imsaho 22/1 4:25Throckley 9/2 5:00 West Drive 4/1 & Plymouth Sound 14/1 Gowran Park - Heavy  2:00  Sister Anne 8/1 2:35 Imagning 3/1 3:10 Sorelle Delle Rose 7/4 & Upgraded 9/2 3:45 Harvery Specter 15/2 4:20 Laganore 7/2 4:55 Lucky Mistake 10/1 4:30 Pass The Ball 25/1 Lingfield - Soft  1:55 Multigifted 22/1 (Perfect Spy 4/1- breeding) 2:30 Our Cilla 4/1 3:05 Lunar Maria 7/2 3:40 Oh This Is Us 7/4 4:15 Curious Fox 15/2 4:50 Dutch Uncle 14/1 & Awesome Allen 28/1 5:25 Arctic Flower 11/4 6:00 Live Dangerously 12/1 Listowel - Heavy  1:40 Big Ben 9/2 2:15 Minella Beau 1/3 2:50 White Lilac 14/1 & The Ballyboys 12/1 3:25 Getoutwhenyoucan 8/1 4:00 Vinnie Luck 11/2 4:35 Montys Meadow 10/3 5:10 Sea Light 15/2 5:40 Awbeg Prince 9/4

1st Viscount Loftus 7/2 - 95  2nd Mr Greenlight 11/1 - 45 2nd Angel Force 7/1 - 45  One horse i would like to mention is Brandy Station, he is a big outsider here, but here breeding suggests that maybe the conditions today will suit him. He hasn't enountered these conditions before, and he has been tried in good races, so maybe these softer conditions might be what he wants.  However he only scored 25, and it was Viscount Loftus who came top here. No guarantee the heavy ground will suit, but he has the form. He was well back in the field in the Norfolk, but the winner that have come out of that race. He was beaten about 5L by Havana Grey who was just touched off in the Flying Childers yesterday, and his last race, the 3rd has since gone on to win VERY EASILY  next time out, so Viscount Loftus looks to have the form here. Mr Greenlight also needs to prove he goes on this ground, and Angel Force is the same. its a guessing game really. My Selection: Vicount Loftus 7/1 (sm

1st Mythical Madness 9/4 - 90 1st Red Mist 10/3 - 90 2nd Seahenge 14/1 - 50 3rd Hey Gaman 6/1 - 45 4th Dream Today 3/1 - 40 Close race this, Mythical Madness will be my selection, because compared to Red Mist, MM's trainer is in form with a 36% strike rate in the last 14 days compared to 6% of Red Mist's trainer. Thats the only way i can seperate them. Also Charlie Appleby has sent 3 horses to run in this race and 2 have won, so he knows what it takes to win this. Red Mists sire Frankel though has had 10 runners at this track and 5 have won!. Dream Today is interesting, but didn't score as much as trainer is in ok form but not as good as Appleby, and only one run, so not going to score as highly, that's whats wrong with the 2yo races im afraid, i do look at stallions, as well and Dream Todays stallion stats at Doncaster are not very good. I think this race is between MM, Red Mist and Dream Today personally. My Selection: Mythical Madness 9/4

1st Defoe 11/2 - 95 2nd Stradivarius 6/1 - 85 3rd Crystal Ocean 12/1 - 65 3rd Capri  7/2 - 65 I would feel very confident that the winner will be one of these. I am on Defoe at 14/1 so obviously i am very pleased Defoe came top here. Remember this is not my view, this is based on stats, so my view has nothing to do with the outcome here. Defoe has never raced on Good-Soft but he is a winner on Good and Soft, any rain will definitely be a positive for Defoe. And there is rain just not enough. Now as a 3yo Defoe is 4/4, his 2yo career was patchy, he was beaten by Coronet at Newmarket, but he was obviously not right that day because he was well beaten that day. Although only a Group 3 winner, that Group 3 was quite telling as he beat Frontiersman who had come out of the Coronation Cup where he was 2nd to Highland Reel and they had left a whole hose to Group 1 winners in their wake. He could go well here. Stradivarius comes here with obviosu claims after his win in the Goodwood

1st Dan Troop 7/2 - 90 2nd Kenstone 4/1 - 85 3rd Ice Slice 13/2 - 45 Well the system pretty much agrees with the market in this - nice T/C here of  94/1, if you are inclined. Dan Troop and Kenstone were well clear of the rest of the field, they both have good stalls as well. Dan Troop won over C&D last time out so easily, he was raised 13lb for that effort, and his jockey only claimed 3lb that time, this time its 7lb which will help. He is a winner on soft and he could go very well again. He is only a 3yo and looks to be imporving still. As usual with Chester the low stall draw is key and Dan Troop has stall 1!! Kenstone also has a good stall. He is a C&D winner and so consistant. In theory his stats are better than Dan Troop, but the reason Dan Troop came out on top, is because Dan Troop has won on soft and Kenstone hasn't won in 2 attempts. Ice Slice has a good stall also but on these stats, has something to find on the top 2. My Selection: Dan Troop 7/2

1st Echo Of Lightening 13/2 - 60 (11%) 2nd Maggie Pink 25/1 - 55 (4%) 2nd Dark Devil 4/1 - 55 (0%) 3rd Bell Heather 10/1 - 45 (11%) The percentages here are stalls. Chester has a bias in shorter races for the lower stalls, Dark Devil and Maggie Pink are in 10 and 11, which is not ideal. Not saying neither will win, but especially for the favourite Dark Devil, its a shocking stall with no winners from it as this distance, and that could be quite important. Echo Of Lightening has an ok stall, drawn midfield. He will love the going, having won by 5l in this class at Pontefract 2 races ago over 1/2 a furlong further. He will like the going, the distance, the track and the drop in class. He has a fantastic chance. Maggie Pink is another who will appreciate the going. She has only ever encountered soft ground twice in her career and is 2, 1. on the going. But has been badly out of form lately, and has a poor stall draw, she does have it all to do. However if liking the going agai

1st Tomyris 11/2 - 85 2nd Talaayeb 7/2 - 75 2nd On Her Toes 11/1 - 75 3rd Eternally 5/1 - 70 This is such a competitive race, as you can see there is not much between these 4, then there is a little gap to Unfrogetable Filly who scored 45. Tomyris just nabbed top spot, She seems to prefer some cut in the ground. She came 5th of 6 in the Coronation Stakes, but not beaten far, this was on good-firm ground, Maybe she would have gone better on softer ground. However she gets the cut here so maybe we will see her in a better light. Her connections are 3/3 at this meeting so far. Talaayeb's 4th in the 1000gns is probably the best form on offer. and she is the one to beat. The going is the unknown with her though, her breeding suggests good is probably as soft as she will want it, but she is a good filly, and there ground might not slow her down. My Selection: Tomyris 11/2 

looking in brief at best speeds Doncaster  1:20 Tigre Du Terre 3/1 1:50 Unforgetable Filly 9/1 2:25 Heartache 13/8 3:00 Byron Flyer 9/2 3:35 Sheikhzayedroad 5/1 4:05 Cherzy Boy 14/1 4:35 Amazour 7/2 5:10 Swilly Sunset 3/1 Sandown 1:30 Time For Wine 7/2 2:00 Zipedeedodah 13/2 2:35 Zaajer 7/4 3:10 Manson 11/1 3:45 Caridade 9/4 4:15 Miss Pacific 16/1 4:45 Capton 6/1 Salisbury  4:25 Deyaarna 2/1 5:00 Alifax 4/1 5:30 Incentive 11/2 6:05 Validator 5/2 6:35 On To Victory 8/11 7:05 Amjan King 8/11  

Chester - soft 2:15 Spud 2/5 & Regular Income 16/1 2:50 Magnus 5/1 (The Throstles 7/1 breeding) 3:25 Nathan 10/11 3:55 Explain 4/1 4:30 Clemency 8/1 5:05 Key Bid 4/7 5:40 Echo Of Lightening 13/2 Listowel - Heavy  2:05 Highway To Heaven 11/8 2:40 Tribal Path 7/1 & Youceeyouceecee 11/2 3:15 Lord Erskine 9/4 3:50 Alls Quiet 7/2 4:20 Kylecrue 13/2 4:50 Alaliya 13/2 5:20 Trojan Lass  25/1 5:50 Koroleva 6/5

2:00 Sandown - Zipedeedodah 13/2 Zipedeedodah was beaten a head last time out, but that horse was carrying 12lb less, Zipedeedodah was given a chance by the handicapper and dropped another pound today. He is 2lb higher than his last win, but his jockey claims a very handy 5lb. So what's interesting? Well he comes alive this time of year. From September - December 5 of his 7 wins have happened, but in September his stats are 1, 5, 2, 1, 2 - i would ignore the 5th place because that was over 6f, he has never won or placed over 6f, and today is 5f. The ground is perfect, the trip perfect, and although he has never run at this track, there is no reason why it wouldn't suit. Melonade and Jashma are obvious dangers, but if Zipedeedodah is back to form, he will be there at the business end

2:35 Sandown - Mekong 12/1 3:25 Chester - Nathan 1/1 3:45 Sandown - Snow Squaw 5/1 5:20 Listowel - Trojan Lass 25/1 would be a qualifier but poor form 7:05 Salisbury - Crystal Sunstone

1:20 Doncaster - Vimy Ridge 12/1 2:50 Chepstow - Milan Reef 7/1 3:25 Chepstow - Right About Now 7/1 5:10 Hexham - Cash Again 11/8

4:10 Sophie Olivia 7/4 4:40 Dr Maloney 10/3 5:10 Cash Again 11/8 5:40 Man With A Van 5/2 6:10 Call The Cops 9/1 6:40 My Idea 3/1 7:10 Western Jo 8/1

Doncaster - Soft  1:20 Kinglami 14/1 1:50 The Mums 9/4 2:25 Sizzling 8/1 3:00 Melodic Motion 4/1 3:35 Neola 8/1 & Alba Power 8/1 4:05 Euginio 3/1 4:35 Nathalie 4/1 Listowel - Heavy  2:05 Lady's Wish 50/1 2:40 Hurricane Twister 6/1 3:15 West Coast Time 10/3 3:45 Nelson Road 6/1 4:20 Ask Susan 3/1 4:50 Une Lavandiere 4/1 5:20 Plinth 12/1 5:50 Icantsay 14/1

2:00 Equus Amadeus 3/1 2:30 Art Of Payroll 11/8 3:00 Waltz Darling 13/2 3:30 Rossetti 8/1 4:00 Honkytonktennessee 11/2 4:30 Bohernagore 11/1

There is a lot of rain around, with conditions already on the soft side. I am looking at those horses who will like a good slog, either breeding or form on heavy. Doncaster -Soft 2:20 John Kirkup 6/1 2:50 Placebo Effect 8/1 3:20 Final Venture 13/8* 3:50 Hitman 16/1 4:20 Pillar Of Society 11/1* 4:50 Mirage Dancer 6/5 5:20 Fredricka 25/1 (Venturous 10/1) Carlisle - Heavy 2:10 Fastalong 40/1 2:40 Thornaby Nash 9/1 3:10 Dubai Empire 7/2 & Ormesher 11/2 3:40 Mohab 14/1 4:10  Ann Without An E 5/4 4:40 Dellguista 15/2 5:10 Starshell 9/4 (Bourne 12/1) 5:40 Boadacious Name 9/4 Listowel - Heavy 2:05 Keep Believing 10/1 2:35 Maximus Daia 15/2 3:05 Savannah Storm 14/1 3:35 Lean And Keen 13/2 (Hurricane Twister 28/1) 4:05 Kylecure 12/1 4:35 Fabulous Saga 4/7 5:05 Mount Hanover 7/4 5:35 Cool Robin 3/1

1st Kylecrue 12/1 - 100 2nd Road To Riches 20/1 - 70 3rd Steller Notion 25/1 - 65 To be honest i think this race will be less about class and more about those horses who love the mud, and have stamina in abundance, because this race will be a hard slog. All 3 named above will not mind conditions in the least, add to them A Toi Phil and Arkwrisht. Kylecrue has proven he has stamina with 3rd in the Cork Grand National 2 years ago, over 4 furlongs further on soft ground. Tempestatefloresco won the Summer Cup over 3m 2f, but the ground in a worry here, i am sure i remember connections saying he needs better ground. Viva Steve is another, but once again ground would be a concern, although by Flemensfirth, My system has found the horse, who will get the distance, will like the going and likes the track. But this is a big race with lots of very good horses running. You want a horse carrying a low weight in this. There has been no winner of this race on heavy ground carrying over 11

Catterick 1:45 Captain Jameson 11/2 2:15 Hot Hannah 11/4 2:45 Steccando 9/2 3:15 Our Charlie Brown 5/1 3:45 Traveltalk 10/1 4:15 Rapid Ranger 7/1 4:45 Wolfcatcherjack 6/5 (Sheriff Garrett 11/1) 5:15 Whipphound 9/1 Listowel  2:10  Taylor Velvet 66/1 2:40 Youceeyouceecee 11/2 3:10 Maze Runner 13/8 3:40 Valentana 16/1 4:10 Alto Esqua 4/1 4:40 On The Go Again 11/2 5:10 Staceys Pride 6/4

Worcester  2:05 King Alfonso 10/1 2:35 Kalifourchon 13/2 3:05 Hallings Comet 13/2 3:35 Robinhannon 1/10 4:05 Maria's Benefit 15/8 4:35 Tunnel Creek 2/1 Leicester  2:25 Ziarah 6/1 2:55 Lady Willpower 25/1 3:25 Felisa 7/2 3:55 Maori Bob 7/2 4:25 War Glory 11/4 4:55 Lynwood Gold 21 5:25 Ornate 15/8 5:55 Missguided 12/1

Just Newcastle today 5:45 Mountain Meadow 14/1 6:45 Amlad 9/2 7:15 Struck By The Moon 14/1 7:45 Champarisi 6/1 8:15 Table Manners 14/1 8:45 Amazing Grazing 9/4

1st Lillian 11/2 - 85 2nd Court King 7/2 - 80 3rd Ennistown 10/1 - 60 Lillian has flourished after stepping up in distance. 3miles plus and her stats are 3, 1, 2, 1, 1. She won her last race easily enough, her and the 2nd horse were so far in front of the other runners. She was put up 6lb for that victory, which is pretty good considering that she and the 2nd were so far ahead of the others, which included Mighty Leader. She is a winner of half a furlong less at this same track. The ground is fine and being a winner at the course, we know she goes well at the track. She has had a little break and will be fresh for this. Court King comes from the yard of the in form Bowen yard. The step up to this distance looks to suit and this looks easier for him than his last race and he is 2/2 in September, so he could run a big race. Ennistown is another who hits the form in september with 4 wins from 4, all his 8 wins have come on left handed courses and 5 of those have come on a fla

Just a few fancies for tomorrow Brighton 2:25 Flowing Clarets 8/1 2:55 Ashington 25/1 4:25 Oden 11/8 5:25 Port Lairgen 25/1 Listowel 3:00 True Companion 15/8 Newton Abbot 2:45 Third Act 11/4* 3:15 Ennistown 7/1 3:45 Kapricorne 13/8 4:15 Lightentertainment 25/1 4:45 Hongkong Adventure 4/1 Perth 2:05 Burlington Bert 15/2