Showing posts from June 18, 2017

24/06/17 5:00 Ascot - System

1st Normandy Barriere 11/1 - 80
2nd Raucous 11/1 - 60
3rd Squats 20/1 - 55
4th Outback Traveller 10/1 - 45
5th Projection 17/2 - 40

This was a little more clear cut than the other system. Normandy Barriere was impressive here. Unfortunately all of these are drawn high, so lets hope the high numbers come in on this one. He is 2 wins and 2 places from 5 runs at Ascot, he is 5 wins and 4 places from 11 on this going, he is 3 wins from 4 with William Buick on board, the distance is perfect. Everything is perfect for a big run. The only worry is the draw!!

Outback Travaller won this race last year, off 4lbs lower than today, still gives him a chance, although he is drawn high and he possibly wants the rain to come to soften the going slightly.

Raucous was my selection so i am pleased he is 2nd here, means he has a chance. Everything is perfect for a good run, and although he is a lower stall fraw than the other 2, it's still a little too high for my liking .

His stable mate Squats is …

24/06/17 3:05 Ascot - System

1st Scarlet Dragon20/1 - 60
1st Central Square 15/2 - 60
2nd Elbereth14/1 - 45
2nd Allez Henri 50/1 - 45
2nd Majeed 25/1 - 45
3rd Maverick Wave 28/1 - 35
3rd Pacify 10/1 - 35

This system favours the ones with experience it seems.

Scarlet Dragon actually stood out in this system for me, more so than Central Square. Scarlet Dragon has probably been overlooked because he isn't from one of the top stables. But his stats are solid, he is 3 wins from 4 on this going, 4 wins from 7 on similar tracks, a distance winner, and he won a nice race at newmarket last time out. So he has every chance, but once again has to run a career best to take this.

Central Square is 2 wins from 3 at this distance, and the same with Andrea Atzeni aboard. He is drawn wide though, but he also has claims

Elbereth could give Oisin Murphy a secnond winner of the meeting, the ground, distance and track are ideal, he gets on well with Oisin. And i think he has strong claims.

Obviously all these are are in danger of a pot…

Speed Analysis

23/06/17 Interesting Horse

8:10 Ayr - Harwoods Volante 12/1

Scorching Heat is very much the one to beat here, but Harwoods Volante does stand out as well and he certainly has place claims.

He is 2lb higher than his last win, todays going and track are fine for him, and he comes into this race slowly getting back into form. He loves June and his stats for running in this month are 2, 3, 1, 1, 10, 3, 3.If you take out those which do not have good in the going then it's 2, 3, 1, 1, 3, 3. and then focus on todays distance, then its 2, 1, 3. He came 3rd last time out on soft ground, and although he is versatile, i think the better ground suits him more, he has been dropped 1lb for that run, and i can see him going close.

Maybe a RFC  with the favourite?

23/06/17 Speed Analysis

22/06/17 4:20 Ascot - System

1st Simple Verse 8/1 - 75
1st Order Of St George 10/11 - 75
2nd Big Orange 8/1 - 70
2nd Endless Time 28/1 - 70
3rd Sweet Selection 16/1 - 55
4th Harbour Law 28/1 - 50

This is a tighter race than i thought.

Simple Verse will love conditions, she will love the track the only concenr is that she has never gone this far, but she did come 3rd here over 2miles in October and thats not bad.

Order Of St George holds obvious claims. He won this last year on soft ground, Todays going will not worry him and he is the one to beat.

Big Orange has gone from strenght to strength, especially since cheekpieces were added. He too has never gone this far but he will love the going.

My Selection: Simple Verse 8/1 

22/06/17 Speed Analysis