The Novice Tipster

A lot to get through today as i am not around tomorrow so will put all my permanent systems that have good chances, and at the bottom ill do what horses qualify for the most systems. 1. 117 runners 72 winners 61.54% 84 placed 71.79% place rate £197.13 ROI If the race is a Maiden then the stats look even better 52 runners 43 winners 82.69% £399.29 ROI 1.50 Goodwood - Hills Of Rome  20/1 Thought i would put that as number 1 as my tracker horse 2. 25 runners 22 winners 88% strike £445 ROI (14 days only) 1.50 Goodwood Frontiersman 11/4 3. 24 runners 23 winners 95.83% Strike rate (14 days only) 5.10 Goodwood Staintondale Lass 10/1 3.05 Listowel Approcaillis 9/2 5.15 Listowel All Dolled Up 11/2   4.  74 runners 43 winners 58.11% strike 65 placed 87.84% place rate  shortern it down to Richard Johnson riding in June and its 2 runners 2 winners 3.45 Perth Hostile Fire 5/6 5.25 Perth Bingo Conti 6/4   5. 3 runners 2 winners 66.67% (last 14days only)

Ashpan Sam 1st Iseemist 25/1 - 50 2nd Shared Equity 13/2 - 45 2nd George Bowen 15/2 - 45 3rd Perfect Pasture 33/1 - 35 3rd Ashpan Sam 14/1 - 35 Very close race this. Iseemist just squeaked into the lead though so i will stick with her. She will go well on good-soft, even it it dries out slightly it shouldn't be a worry. Goes well at Epsom though and is 2 wins from 3, but she does need a career best to win this and is 11lb higher than last win. Came 10th out of 13 in this last year but got quite badly hampered. Ashpan Sam won at this meeting the last 2 years in a row, expect a good run. Jockey booking is a worry though, but takes  a very handy 7lb off his back. He is only 3lb higher than his win last year. Shared Equity will love the going, 4lb higher than last win, but goes well for Graham Lee the have teamed up 11 times, won 3 and placed 7 times. Jamie Spencer got a fine tune out of George Bowen last year, in a much better race than this, if Spencer can work his

4:50 Curragh - 11 runners stalls 7-11 have a 62% strike rate - positive for Camellia Japonica, Roseisarose, King Tout, Pick Of Any, Changed Times 6:30 Curragh - 6 runners Stall 6: General Macarthur 12/1 - 37%  3:05 Doncaster - 7 runners (only 17 races, 3 under what i like, but interesting stats) Stalls 1 - 3 have a 82% strike rate, so these must have a great chance - Mr Snoozy, Hurricane Volta, Hurry Home Popp. I would suggest a combination f/c 

1 . Trainers in form with Maidens/Novices last 14 days. I am not a fan of these races anyway, however some trainers, are doing ok with their maidens/novices Saeed Bin Suroor is 4/4 in Maidens and Novices in the last 14 days, and 5 wins from 7 in the last 21 days. He has 2 today 1.55 Dubai Elegance Doncaster 9/4 6.40 Huge Future Newcastle 10/11 James Doyle rode those 4 winners and he is on Dubai Elegance today  2 other trainers who have had 1 winner out of 1 runner, with a runner today is 5.00 Worcester One More Go 9/4 5.35 Worcester Huntsman Son 9/1 - (trainers maiden winner was 20/1) 2 .  Same with the one above but with Handicappers. John Gosden is 3/4. Frankie is 1/1 on them and Robert Havlin is 2/3, both have a ride each today 5.40 Doncaster Heart Of Lions SP 2.00 Epsom Cartago 5/1

Not feeling as confident today, some poor horses in this. But i have done it the same way as last time. I have also looked at stalls, no way i can say there is a bias, but there could be a guide of where the winners are coming from Newcastle 6:10 Stalls: 2 runners over this distance and winner has come from a higher stall number Rating : Tailors Row Going : Tailors Row/White Royale Speed : Rapid Rise My Selection : Tailors Row 15/8 6:40 Stalls : same as above Rating : Gibbs Hill Going : Huge Future/Rockery Speed : Corroyer My Selection : High Future 1/1 7:10 Stalls : same as above Rating : Outlaw Torn Going : La Havrese Speed : Yulong Xiongba My Selection : Outlaw Torn 14/1 7:40 Stalls : none Rating : Yorkshireman Going : Nonagon Speed : Bowdlers Magic My Selection : Bowdlers Magic 3/1 8:10 Stalls : 2 wins with higher numbers and one lower number so nothing showing Rating : Sand Chorus Going : Muhaafiz Speed

Maljaa 1st Maljaa 8/1 - 95 2nd Caspian Prince 12/1 - 80 3rd Lathom 28/1 - 50 I am a big fan of Caspian Prince, he has done me well before and 12/1 is a great price. He won this race in 2014 and then came in nearly last, last year. I think there might of been excuses for that, firstly the fact it was good-firm ground, and he has never won on anything firmer than good. He is 2/3 at Epsom and 2/3 on the going, he looks like this race ha been his target again and i expect to se a different horse this year than last. As long as the ground doesn't harden up. Expect a big run. Maljaa i read is considered a potential Group 1 horse in the future, he certainly likes winning. He has come out of his prep run bouncing and is much sharper now. He wasn beaten by a horse who runs well fresh and a horse that came 7th in that race, has since gone onto win a Listed race. Also i notice that he seems to like the big fields, in races under 15 runners he is 2, 1, 3, 2, 2, 2. But for races wi

1. Trail System for the AW tomorrow 5.45 Lingfield Barnaby Brook 4/1 6.20 Lingfield Mighty Lady 20/1 54 runners 32 winners 59.26%  46 placed  85.19% place rate £211.85 ROI 2. I have a system that follows Paul Nicholls at certain tracks, its not a great stat, but in his career he has only sent one horse to Hexham and it won. The same horse goes there again 2.05 Hexham Keltus 11/8

Epsom 2:00 Stalls : none Rating : Medburn Dream Going : Bathos Speed : High Grounds My Selection : High Grounds 16/1 2:35 Stalls : none Rating : Epsom Icon Going : Epsom Icon Speed : Merry Me My Selection : Epsom Icon 10/1 ew (Sayana should win but   have no speed stats etc) 3:10 Stalls : Second Step Rating : Arabian Queen Going : none Speed : Postponed My Selection : Postponed 10/11 3:45 Stalls : Normal Equilibrium Rating : Caspian Prince Going : Caspian Prince Speed : Maljaa My Selection : Caspian Prince 12/1 4:30 Stalls : Ulysses Rating : Wings Of Desire Going : none Speed : Maasaat My Selection : Wings Of Desire 5/1 5:15 Stalls : none Rating : Repeater Going : Polarisation Speed : Blue Surf My Selection : Polarisation 12/1 5:50 Stalls : none Rating : Ashpan Sam Going : Iseemist Speed : Boomerang Bomb My Selection : Ashpan Sam 11/1

Wings Of Desire 1st Wings Of Desire 5/1 - 90 2nd Red Verdon 22/1 - 85 3rd US Army Ranger5/1 - 65 4th Ulysses 8/1 - 50 Well that's a pleasing result for me as i am on Wings Of Desire and US Army Ranger already with AP bets. Red Verdon was the surprise, but he is a winner at this distance and on g-s and he wont mind the going if it dries a little. He does need to step up on his last race, and i am not sure how good he is, he might go well as the race is quite open, the reason he scored so well is because of his distance win and he will like the going. US Army Ranger need to learn a lot and that's why he went to Chester, he nearly lost to Port Douglas though, however i think he can confirm placings here with PD. Wings Of Desire i have been told is thought to be better than Golden Horn at this stage, make of that what you will, but Golden Horn won a very competitive Derby last year. He is a full brother to Eagle Top and The Lark so 1m 4f will be right up his stre