The Novice Tipster

1st Now This Is It 22/1 - 65 2nd Ruaraidh High 12/1 - 50 3rd Green Zone 9/1 - 40 3rd Malin Bay 9/1 - 40 Now This Is It has drifted massively out to 22/1, which is a worry. However his stats say he has a massive chance. At Perth on good or firmer ground he is 1, 1, 1, 3, UR, 2. He has been off the track a long time and since coming back has shown nothing, but i am inclined to forgive his last run, as it was at Perth on soft ground, an soft ground has never been his thing. Richard Johnson is an interesting booking. He is no way a certainty but he could go well. Ruaraidh High was put up 6lb for his last run, i think that's quite harsh. He is 4lb lower than his highest every mark so he has a lot to do here, but has the ground to suit, and he gets on really well with his jockey where they are 5 wins from 9 runs. I don't like Dumbarton at all, never won at this grade in 10 attempts, never won at Perth in 3, i also think he needs to drop grade to have a chance, 3/1 is to

1st Kilbree Kid 10/3 - 105 2nd Present Lodger 8/1 - 70 3r Isla Pearl Fisher 7/1 - 55 As you can see by the score, KK has a lot going for him today. He is also a Ratings System horse, so i really do hope he goes well. Here is why he scored so well His last win came here at Perth over a year ago in a much better race than this an 2 classes higher. He is 17lb lower in the handicap now after some not very good runs on unsuitable going. He has been run 4 times since on soft ground, and he has never won on soft ground, but fared better on good to goo to firm groun. His stats on Good ground whilst Chasing are 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 5, 3, 3. If you take out all distances that are not 3m - 3m1/2f then the stats are 1, 1, 2, 5, 3. and then also look at Perth on good ground an at 3m/3m1/2f on good ground, you have 1, 2. He goes well At Perth, he goes well with this jockey 18 runs 6 wins and 10 placed. Also his stats whilst  in a Class 4 race are 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, PU, 3. The PU

1. Best sire at Bath today has to be Champs Elysees, not only is his stats at Bath are 46 runners 14 winners = 30.43% strike rate but he also produces offspring who like firm going 22 runners 9 winners = 40.91% if you combine Bath with Firm ground and you will find that all but one of these firm ground stats were at Bath/ 21 runners 9 winners = 42.86% He has 1 runner today here, an i would be shocked if this one didnt win 5:10 Bath - Withold 11/10 2. Dansili is probably the best sire at Chelmsford today since it reopened last year. With a strike rate of 46 runners 13 winners = 28.26% Overall on Polytrack he is a good sire to have on side anyway as his stats are 217 runners 44 winners = 20.28% strike rate. He has one runner today at Chelmsford who looks to have big claims 7:20 Chelmsford - Yangtze 7/4 3. Sir Mark Prescott doesn't send a great deal to Sandown, but when he does, you should take note. 58 runners 21 winners = 36.21% strike rate. During

Bath 5:10 Stalls : none Rating : Hannah Just Hannah Going : Withold Speed : Arthur McBride My Selection : Withold 11/8 5:40 Stalls : none Rating : Rum Swizzle Going : Oratario’s Joy/Rum Swizzle Speed : Oratorio’s Joy My Selection : Oratorio’s Joy 7/1 6:05 Stalls : none Rating : Hope Is High Going : Azure Amour Speed : Overlord My Selection : Hope Is High 5/2 6:35 Stalls : Somemethewayavrilo/Waneen Rating : Showmethewayavrilo Going : Chandresh Speed : Storm Melody My Selection : Chandresh 20/1 7:05 Stalls : Hot Mustard Rating : Saint Helena Going :   Hot Mustard Speed : Hot Mustard My Selection : Hot Mustard 11/2 7:35 Stalls : none Rating : Molly Jones Going :   Molly Jones Speed : Mambo Spirit My Selection : Molly Jones 7/1 8:05 Stalls : none Rating : Pivotal Flame Going : Tenerezza Speed : Pina My Selection : Pivotal Flame 4/1

Chester 2:05 Stalls : Hartswell Rating : Rays The Money Going : Jenji Speed : Rays The Money My Selection : Rays The Money 15/8 2:40 Stalls : Partitia Rating : Rosabelle Going : none Speed : Grizzel My Selection : Partitia 9/4 3:15 Stalls : none Rating : Sea Of Heaven Going : Mistiroc Speed : Pamona My Selection : Sea Of Heaven 5/1 3:50 Stalls : Right Touch Rating : Ice Slice Going : Ice Slice/Right Touch Speed : Intransigent My Selection : Right Touch 5/1 4:25 Stalls : none Rating : Powerallied Going : Kibaar/Blithe Spirit Speed : Lightscameraaction My Selection : Powerallied 11/2 5:00 Stalls : Snowy Dawn Rating : Chocala Going : Perfect Summer Speed : Communicator My Selection : Communicator 5/1 5:35 Stalls : none Rating : African Blessing Going : Dark Defender Speed : Sixites Sue My Selection : Dark Defender 11/2

7:05 Bath - Hot Mustard 8/1 * 8:20 Chelmsford - Dukes Meadow 9/1 5:50 Perth - Kilbree Kid 4/1 *

Sandown 1:55 Stalls : none Rating : Serengeti Sky Going : Harbour Master Speed : Dourdo My Selection : Serengeti Sky 11/4 2:30 Stalls : Persuasive Rating : Persuasive Going : Red Box Speed : Mix And Mingle My Selection : Persuasive 9/4 3:05 Stalls : Repton Rating : Monticello Going : none Speed : Bahamas My Selection : Repton 12/1 3:40 Stalls : none Rating : Goodwood Mirage Going : Revolutionist Speed : Fire Fighting My Selection : Fire Fighting 8/1 4:15 Stalls : Soie Dleau Rating : Shamshon Going : Ziggy Lee Speed : Stepper Point My Selection : Shamshon 5/1 4:50 Stalls : Wind In My Sails Rating : Unison Going : Cricklewood Green Speed : Bernies Boy My Selection : Wind In My Sails 6/1 5:25 Stalls : Franco’s Secret Rating : Inniscastle Lad Going : Croquembouche Speed : Rydan My Selection : Croquembouche 11/1