The Novice Tipster

  1st Hewick 6/1 - 70 2nd Recite A Prayer 20/1 - 55 3rd Busselton 15/2, Embittered 16/1, The Jam Man 16/1 - 45  Tullybeg also scored 45 but is 2nd reserve.  Hewick was clear here, he carries top weight, but on this ground it shouldnt be too much of an issue and he has won twice from 3 runs carrying 11st 12lb plus. He will love the going, he has won over course and distance over hurdles which is good. His stats for running in September is 4, 1, 1, 2, 1, not much to go on but interesting. He has a lot of ticks in his box, the only negative is the top weight but he is rated 10lb superior to his rivals, so its right he gives a minimum of 10lb to each. He is racing off a career high mark so will need to improve again. Recite A Prayer is a big ew, and comes from the inform stable of Willie Mullins. The ground is perfect form him with stats of 1, 1, 1, 11. The 11th was last time out in a Grade 2 Midlands National. He does meet a lot of rivals there. I would actually ignore his l...

  1st Fairyhill Run 7/1 - 60 (First Reserve) 2nd Snow Falcon 25/1 - 50 3rd Top Moon 11/1 - 40 3rd Waitnsee 20/1 - 40 (3rd Reserve) Fairyhill Run scored well here, mainly because the ground, trip and track will suit her.  She is up 14lb for her last win but she has been in fantastic form and could still be improving over fences. She will need one to come out here, and will need to improve again, but her last race she beat Grade 2 winner Rapid Response but quite a way. So, she could run well IF she gets in. Snow Falcon won this in 2018 off a mark of 148, he is now 7lb lower . Distance is perfect, ground is ok, but any rain would be welcome, and there will be some due, if it doesnt come to late. He is 1, 1, 2 at the track, but one was this race, one was a flat race and the other over 2m 3f. He also comes the exact same route as he did when he won this, by going to the same race at Galway then here. Came 4th that year beaten 10L and this year came 9th beaten 15L. Think if he might...

1st Yorkhill 13/2 - 60 2nd Pravalaguna 16/1 - 50 3rd Dell' Arca 25/1 - 45 4th Icantsay 14/1 - 40 Its actually a very close race, with the majority of others scoring 25-30. Yorkhill won nicely last time out beating a couple fo todays rivals in the process. He has to give weight to all his rivals, but the fact Paul is riding, suggests he is the main choice. He will love the soft ground, with 4 runs on it s and 3 wins. The distance is a slight concern as never run well over 3miles yet, both were Grade 1 races too, but he has won at 2m 6 and a half furlongs so it really should not be an issue. He is the class horse of the race though . Pravalaguna has 13lb less to carry than Yorkhill here. She unlike Yorkhill has won at 3 miles, and that was last time out over hurdles. That could be what she wants and so you may see a big improvement in her today. The going and track is fine, so she has good ew claims. Dell' Arca was 4th in this last year, and is 6lb lower than then, ...

1st I Will Follow 9/2 - 65 2nd Silver Planeur 20/1 - 50 - RESERVE 3 3rd Letter Of Credit 33/1 - 45 4th Open To The World  25/1 - 35 I haven't got time to go into a lot of detail, but i like a race like this because there are lots of stats albeit poor stats and a nice big field, and normally throws up a nice price, this is why i did it. Just wish i done it last night because I Will Follow was 11/1and now is 9/2! I Will Follow is 3 runs and no wins on soft, so you might wonder, but firstly his sire has a very strong strike rate on soft, his results on soft are 14, 11 and PU, but you have to look past that. As this is a 3m race, and they were 2miles and 2m 4f. He run a 3 mile on heavy and came 2nd. The winner that day was Gold Smoke, and there is a 3lb swing in the weights to I Will Follow. Very interesting Jockey booking as the have teamed up 3 times in 5 years 1 winners and 2 placed efforts. Cheekpieces on the first time. Trainer and Jockey in great form. As long as a good...

1st Lite Duties 13/2 - 45 2nd Orion D'Aubrelle 11/2 - 35 3rd It's All Guesswork 2/1 - 25 Lite Duties is the oldest horse in the race and has also been off for 221, which might make things tougher, except, he was off 1070 days when coming back on heavy ground and winning at a higher level than this. But then he is getting older, so its going to get harder. On the plus side, its raining and the more rain the better. He is a winner on soft and heavy ground. He is a Grade 2 winner over hurdles. Mark Enright is back on board after steering him to victory after the 1070 days off. He jumps well so hopefully will take to the fences well. The only issue is he has to be fit enough. Orion D'Aubrelle is still a maiden, however is stepping back up in trip for this, which i think will help. He ran very well over 3 miles in a Grade 2 Handicap Hurdle in April, only beaten 3L. But then was dropped back in trip for his debut over fences. He will be much happier over this longer trip...

1st Saturnas 25/1 - 55 2nd Snow Falcon 11/2 - 45 2nd Rogue Angel 7/1 - 45 3rd Jury Duty 15/2 - 40 Very tight race where i am surprised there is a clear winner. Saturnas has had a rough couple of races recently where he has been hampared, he hasn't jumped particularly well either. However his last run, he was challenging for 3rd when the horse fell in front of him and then he wasn playing catch up.Ground wont be an issue and he has an excellent weight. If it all goes right he has claims Snow Falcon will relish conditions and has big claims Rogue Angel is reserve but is another who has claims but is first reserve. He will enjoy conditions and should go well My Selection: Saturnas 25/1

Catterick  2:00 Prince Elzaam 2/1 3:35 Midnight Warrior 9/1 4:05 Weellan 7/1 Leicester 2:10 Impulsion 2/1 3:45 Line Of Reason 5/2 4:20 Race Day 11/1 4:50 Al Mureib 4/5 Worcester 2:20 Hillary View 2/1 (i only added this because Cillians Well was jsut behind in speeds and is 14/1, could go close) 3:25 Red Hot Chilly 9/1 3:55 Premier King 7/4 4:25 Chequered View 9/4 5:30 Kilcaragh Boy 12/1 Listowel  2:05 Guido Reni 14/1 2:35 Beautiful Citi 13/8 3:05 Knock On Steel 5/1 3:40 Ingleby MacKenzie 8/1 4:10 Minnie Dahill 10/1 4:45 La Richebourg  11/10 5:15 On The Mill 66/1 Salisbury  4:00 La Fortuna 13/2 4:35 Jash 4/9 5:40 Foxtrot Lady 11/8 7:10 Rydan 5/1

Chester - Heavy 1:30 Show Palace 11/4 (good stall) - Ballesteros 4/1 is good but awful stall 2:05 Porchy Party 4/1 2:40 Soldier In Action 11/4 3:15 Kings Pavilion 6/1 (Fingals Cave 20/1) 3:50 Flere Imsaho 22/1 4:25Throckley 9/2 5:00 West Drive 4/1 & Plymouth Sound 14/1 Gowran Park - Heavy  2:00  Sister Anne 8/1 2:35 Imagning 3/1 3:10 Sorelle Delle Rose 7/4 & Upgraded 9/2 3:45 Harvery Specter 15/2 4:20 Laganore 7/2 4:55 Lucky Mistake 10/1 4:30 Pass The Ball 25/1 Lingfield - Soft  1:55 Multigifted 22/1 (Perfect Spy 4/1- breeding) 2:30 Our Cilla 4/1 3:05 Lunar Maria 7/2 3:40 Oh This Is Us 7/4 4:15 Curious Fox 15/2 4:50 Dutch Uncle 14/1 & Awesome Allen 28/1 5:25 Arctic Flower 11/4 6:00 Live Dangerously 12/1 Listowel - Heavy  1:40 Big Ben 9/2 2:15 Minella Beau 1/3 2:50 White Lilac 14/1 & The Ballyboys 12/1 3:25 Getoutwhenyoucan 8/1 4:00 Vinnie Luck 11/2 4:35 Montys Meadow 10/3 5:10 Sea Light 15/2 5:40 Awbeg Prince 9/4...

Chester - soft 2:15 Spud 2/5 & Regular Income 16/1 2:50 Magnus 5/1 (The Throstles 7/1 breeding) 3:25 Nathan 10/11 3:55 Explain 4/1 4:30 Clemency 8/1 5:05 Key Bid 4/7 5:40 Echo Of Lightening 13/2 Listowel - Heavy  2:05 Highway To Heaven 11/8 2:40 Tribal Path 7/1 & Youceeyouceecee 11/2 3:15 Lord Erskine 9/4 3:50 Alls Quiet 7/2 4:20 Kylecrue 13/2 4:50 Alaliya 13/2 5:20 Trojan Lass  25/1 5:50 Koroleva 6/5

2:35 Sandown - Mekong 12/1 3:25 Chester - Nathan 1/1 3:45 Sandown - Snow Squaw 5/1 5:20 Listowel - Trojan Lass 25/1 would be a qualifier but poor form 7:05 Salisbury - Crystal Sunstone

Doncaster - Soft  1:20 Kinglami 14/1 1:50 The Mums 9/4 2:25 Sizzling 8/1 3:00 Melodic Motion 4/1 3:35 Neola 8/1 & Alba Power 8/1 4:05 Euginio 3/1 4:35 Nathalie 4/1 Listowel - Heavy  2:05 Lady's Wish 50/1 2:40 Hurricane Twister 6/1 3:15 West Coast Time 10/3 3:45 Nelson Road 6/1 4:20 Ask Susan 3/1 4:50 Une Lavandiere 4/1 5:20 Plinth 12/1 5:50 Icantsay 14/1

There is a lot of rain around, with conditions already on the soft side. I am looking at those horses who will like a good slog, either breeding or form on heavy. Doncaster -Soft 2:20 John Kirkup 6/1 2:50 Placebo Effect 8/1 3:20 Final Venture 13/8* 3:50 Hitman 16/1 4:20 Pillar Of Society 11/1* 4:50 Mirage Dancer 6/5 5:20 Fredricka 25/1 (Venturous 10/1) Carlisle - Heavy 2:10 Fastalong 40/1 2:40 Thornaby Nash 9/1 3:10 Dubai Empire 7/2 & Ormesher 11/2 3:40 Mohab 14/1 4:10  Ann Without An E 5/4 4:40 Dellguista 15/2 5:10 Starshell 9/4 (Bourne 12/1) 5:40 Boadacious Name 9/4 Listowel - Heavy 2:05 Keep Believing 10/1 2:35 Maximus Daia 15/2 3:05 Savannah Storm 14/1 3:35 Lean And Keen 13/2 (Hurricane Twister 28/1) 4:05 Kylecure 12/1 4:35 Fabulous Saga 4/7 5:05 Mount Hanover 7/4 5:35 Cool Robin 3/1

1st Kylecrue 12/1 - 100 2nd Road To Riches 20/1 - 70 3rd Steller Notion 25/1 - 65 To be honest i think this race will be less about class and more about those horses who love the mud, and have stamina in abundance, because this race will be a hard slog. All 3 named above will not mind conditions in the least, add to them A Toi Phil and Arkwrisht. Kylecrue has proven he has stamina with 3rd in the Cork Grand National 2 years ago, over 4 furlongs further on soft ground. Tempestatefloresco won the Summer Cup over 3m 2f, but the ground in a worry here, i am sure i remember connections saying he needs better ground. Viva Steve is another, but once again ground would be a concern, although by Flemensfirth, My system has found the horse, who will get the distance, will like the going and likes the track. But this is a big race with lots of very good horses running. You want a horse carrying a low weight in this. There has been no winner of this race on heavy ground carrying over 11...

Catterick 1:45 Captain Jameson 11/2 2:15 Hot Hannah 11/4 2:45 Steccando 9/2 3:15 Our Charlie Brown 5/1 3:45 Traveltalk 10/1 4:15 Rapid Ranger 7/1 4:45 Wolfcatcherjack 6/5 (Sheriff Garrett 11/1) 5:15 Whipphound 9/1 Listowel  2:10  Taylor Velvet 66/1 2:40 Youceeyouceecee 11/2 3:10 Maze Runner 13/8 3:40 Valentana 16/1 4:10 Alto Esqua 4/1 4:40 On The Go Again 11/2 5:10 Staceys Pride 6/4

Just a few fancies for tomorrow Brighton 2:25 Flowing Clarets 8/1 2:55 Ashington 25/1 4:25 Oden 11/8 5:25 Port Lairgen 25/1 Listowel 3:00 True Companion 15/8 Newton Abbot 2:45 Third Act 11/4* 3:15 Ennistown 7/1 3:45 Kapricorne 13/8 4:15 Lightentertainment 25/1 4:45 Hongkong Adventure 4/1 Perth 2:05 Burlington Bert 15/2

Trainers Tim Vaughan 1.50 Newton Abbot Oscar Fiain 4/1 2.20 Newton Abbot Master Dancer 3/1 3.30 Newton Abbot Winter Walk 9/2 Alan King 3.20 Newbury Who Dares Wins 7/2 5.30 Newbury Ardamir 5/1 William Haggas 1.40 Newbury Original Choice 4/1 2.10 Newbury Executive Force 9/4 Jockeys Clifford Lee 3.05 Ayr Orient Class13/2   Lisa O'Neill 5.55 Listowel Amarillo Rose 16/1    

Not around today so thought i would do this 3:30 Beverley - Icefall 3/1 4:10 Listowel - Killer Crow 8/1 5:20 Listowel - Timiyan 9/4 3:25 Yarmouth - So Mi Dar 1/1

1st Killer Crow 8/1 - 85 2nd Ballycasey 8/1 - 80 3rd Your Busy 25/1 - 60 4th Three Kingdoms 12/1 - 55 4th Kylecrue 16/1 - 55 (Reserve) Ballycasey has a big weight here in testing conditions. And has never won over further than 2m 6f, although has placed at 3m 1f. He has won 3 times out of  6. I am not going to lie, its a big ask for a good horse like him. I think he might gt beat by a horse carrying a lighter weight. However he still has an ew chance. Killer Crow could be the one to beat him, he scored well, he likes the going, i think i was told he is considered a National horse, and he came 7th in the Irish National. So he obviously has stamina. he carries a nice weight as well. Your Busy has never completed a race over fences on heavy and PU in this last year, which is a worry. But he stays all day. I think he would need firmer ground than this though. No horse has won so far carrying more than 11st on heavy ground, Rogue Angel won this carrying 10-4 and in 2...

2:20 Yarmouth - Bouquet Des Flores 13/8 This is a tough race, and some big trainers are sending theirs here for this. Most of these are probably going to be much better than a Class 4 race. Especially BDF.  BDF has been given a bit of a break after coming 3rd in a Class 2 race, and obviously this race is a big drop. BDF in her first race was beaten only about a neck by Glitter Girl on her first run, and she improved no end,even if they were down the field. In BDF's 2nd race she came 3rd, the 2nd placed horse has since been beaten by a neck in a group 3. So its some good form. She comes here fresh, the going will be fine, and should be up to winning this 3:55 Listowel - Jeremeys Joy 4/1 This is a riskier one. Jeremeys Joy won last time out at Galway on heavy over longer. And her stats on heavy are 1, 1, 1. They have been over longer, but seeing as today she is top weight so the drop in trip might work for her. She certainly will have the stamina to try and run these in...

  Trainer Noel Meade 4.40 Listowel - Shes A Star 2/1 William Haggas  2.20 Brighton Ramblow 2/1 4.15 Kempton Musaanada 5/1 5.55 Wolverhampton Highland Lotus 9/4   Michael Blake 2.00 Kempton Moon Arrow 10/1 4.45 Kempton Great Fun 28/1 Jockey Wayne Hutchinson 5.20 Worcester - Seven Clans25/1   Georgia Cox 2.20 Brighton Ramblow 2/1