09/04/21 4:05 Aintree - Topham Chase

 

1st Modus 11/1 - 60

2nd Morning Vicar 10/1 - 35

3rd Huntsman Son 16/1 - 30

3rd Relentless Dreamer 40/1 - 30

Over the National fences anything can happen and this system bar Modus is so close. A race like this the horse can need a lot of luck so even the best of stats wont help. 

Modus is a lovely old boy and has been around the block but one thing is for sure, he runs so well fresh. In fact his stats when off for over 100 days his stats are 2, 1, 3, 1, 6, 1,  his Aintree form is 11, 5, 1, 3. The 5, 1, 3, were over fences and the 5th was a grade 1. and the 3rd was over C&D over the National course last time out in December. He runs off the same mark and he was beatn just under 2L by Sir Jack Yeats who came 2nd and where as Modus is on the same mark, Sir Jack Yeats has gone up 5lb, so Modus could easily turn the form around if he doesnt try to walk through Valentines again. Will be interesting to see how Semetagal has done on Thursday as both these were well clear of him. The ground is perfect for him, he wont mind a bit of rain or it drying out. He could run a big race. 

Morning Vicar found the Kim Muir too far and this drop back looks ideal for him. The ground is a big plus too. Aintree should suit him well, he jumps ok but i do fear his lack of experience as only 5 races over fences. He has a tendency to jump right and this is a left handed course. Nicky will have him practice over these type of fences so hopefully he will be fine. 

Huntsman Son won a Listed race when coming back after nearly 2 years off the track, and ran a great race in the Plate at Cheltenham when 6th to The Shunter. This ground is what he wants and the distance is perfect. On the whole he jumps pretty well, but can jump slowly, however he could run well if taking to the fences. 

Relentless Dreamer is an old boy now and this will be tough. He has run here but not over the National fneces and he pulled up, im not too worried as he loves a flat track, but he will love the going too so if he gets around he could go ok. I think he may need to find a little with some of these and his age is against him but he is so experienced that he might sneak into a place.

My Selection: Modus 11/1