The Novice Tipster

1st Mister Chow 4/1 - 110 2nd Shambra 4/1 - 80 3rd Lisp 11/4 - 75 One point here. Horses rated 130+ have a 46.67% strike rate int his race. There has only ever been 15 horses rated that highly. Of those 10 were the top rated in the race and 6 won. Today we have 2 horses rated 130 and both are the top rated which is Lisp and Mister Chow. So for me it has to be between these 2. But you never know what is lurking though. Mister Chow beat Swaffham Bulbeck last time out, it was Swaffham Bulbecks first run after a break so you have to think he would come on from that. The horse who came 3rd in that race has since gone on to win. So thats a good form boost for them. Lisp won last time out, but not really sure how strong that form is yet. Cornerstone Lad beat Turning Gold last time out but is now weighted to turn the tables. Shambra won so easily last time out, but its another one i am not sure about the form. So far Mister Chow has the best speed on heavy My Selection: Mister

2:30 Faatinah 10/11 (Nap) 3:05 Pillar Of Society 6/1 3:40 Heavy Metal 4/11 4:15 Yalta 10/11 4:50 Promising Run 4/7 (nb) 5:25 Mountain Hunter 6/4 6:00 Ibn Malik 16/1

1st Zarkander 5/1 - 85 2nd No Hassle Hoff 14/1 - 75 3rd Agrapart 4/6 - 60 Zarkander won this last year, but he was a bit disappointing on his return from a break last time out. I wonder if its because he is 11 now and maybe needed the run, but still it was a bit disappointing. However one thing which is noticable is that Zarkanders best form comes in small fields of under 8. His stats in fields under 8 is F, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, UR, 5, 1. Its tough because like Cue Card, based on old form this horse will take the beating. His stats on heavy are 1, 1, 2, PU. The PU was his last race after 231 days off. Agrapart has possibly the best recent form of the race with his win against Wholestone last time out. His stats on heavy are 2, 3, 1, 2, 1. He was 3rd behind Zarkander last year, but he gave 8lb to Zarkander last year, and today they are on level terms, which is a negative for Zarkander. It wont take much for Agrapart to win. No Hassle Hoff has beaten Zarkander twice, but last

1st Top Notch 2/1 - 135 2nd Cue Card 10/1 - 120 3rd Coney Island 7/2 - 75 4th Waiting Patiently 9/4 - 60 Firstly i want to point out that this is a difficult system. Cue Card has won this race twice so he is going to score well. When he was at his peak, he would have beaten all these hands down. However these are all young 'uns and not reached their peak yet. Based on stats he should go well, but my personal opinion is that he is past his best. Waiting Patiently probably has the best recent form with his win last time out. He had Josses Hill well beaten that day, where as Top Notch only beat him just over 3L, however distance was different, going was in both cases so its hard to gauge. Coney Island could be anything. I think he could be a contender for the Gold Cup. He didnt score well because he hasn't had the races, his trainer not in the form of the others,. Waiting Patiently suffers the same issue with my system. Only every raced 8 times, but look what he has

1st Blaklion 9/4 - 95 2nd Mysteree 10/1 - 80 3rd The Dutchman 9/2 65 4th Silsol 12/1 -55 No horse rated above 149 has won on heavy ground, which is a bit of a negative for Blaklion (161), he tried in this last year off 152 when he came 2nd, although he and the winner were well clear of the 3rd horse. Blaklion is 9lb higher than that year, so it makes life hard for him. Only one horse in 10 has ever won off top weight (Silver By Nature). It does worry me that last year he carried top weight on Good-Soft and this year its heavy. Thats a big ask, even for a class horse like Blaklion. What we do know though is that he stays forever and jumps well. His stats on heavy are 2, 1, 1. He is the one they have to beat. Mysteree's stats on heavy are 3, 1, 1, PU. His PU was after 294 days off the track and although he was 2/2 after a break of over 200 days., this was a Grade 3, so it was a big ask. He has to find a bit to beat Blaklion, but he is carrying 25lb less than Blaklion on thi

Lingfield 12:40 Sir Jamie 15/2 1:10 Mister Freeze 7/1 1:45 Zenith One 16/1 2:20 Arzaak 11/2 2:55 Ay Ay 6/4 3:30 Make Music 13/2 4:05 Nomorecalls 11/8 4:40 Mouchee 11/2 Kempton 5:45 Vodka Pigeon 7/1 6:15 Black Sails 15/8 6:45 Nezar 11/2 7:15 Yeah Baby Yeah 20/1 7:45 Wimpole Hall 3/1 8:15 Bluff Crag 10/1

Ascot 1:15 Dame Du Compagnie 2/1 1:50 Ms Parfois 7/4 2:25 Tenor Nivernais 7/1 3:00 Court Minstrel 16/1 3:35 Top Notch 2/1 4:10 Templeross 11/2 4:45 The Imitation Game 40/1 Haydock 1:30 Mister Chow 3/1 2:05 Agrapart 4/6 2:40 Markov 11/8 3:15 Silsol 12/1 3:50 Black Ivory 11/4 4:25 Shannon Bridge 3/1 5:00 Argocat 9/2 Wincanton  1:40 Jully Les Buxy 9/1 2:15 War Sound 5/2 2:45 Call Me Lord 7/4 3:20 Gamain 9/4 3:55 Cougar Kid 6/1 4:30 Silverhow 11/4 5:05 Embole 3/1 Gowran Park  1:25 Up For Review 4/1 2:00 Our Duke 6/4 2:35 Tongie 5/2 3:10 Mick Jazz 5/4 3:45 Make It Hurrah 16/1 4:20 Rihtdownthemiddle 16/1 4:55 Quri 16/1

1st Gassin Golf 4/1 - 85 2nd Chieftains Choice 12/1 - 55 3rd Mr Fickle 25/1 - 45 Gassin Golf's 3rd over C&D  in January makes him the horse to beat. it was a much better race than this, i was working out that its was about a 10lb better performance than this race average, so if he runs to that nothing will come close. The going is fine a his run last time was on heavy as well. Cheiftains Choice has won at this Grade over C&D on soft. He shouldn't have an issue with the going either, he has only won once on heavy at this grade, his 3 losses on heavy were in much better races and he managed a 3rd in a better class on heavy. He looks overpriced. He did beat GG before, but GG was well beaten that day. Mr Fickle is 3lb lower than when winning over C&D back in 2015. Probably wouldn't want it as heavy as this though, but could be capable of pulling it out the bag. Would be surprised if he could beat Gassin Golf though. My Selection: Gassin Gold 4/1

1st Rathlin Rose 9/4 - 95 2nd Orbasa 5/2 - 85 3 horses were 3rd on 50 - Midnight Monty, Leo Luna and Renard. This really does look a 2 horse race. Firstly you have the horse who won this last year and is 2/2 with todays jockey here. And then you have a horse from the Nicholls yard, Nicholls has won this race 6 times. And his stats here are so good, you have to take his runner seriously. He hasn't had a runner in it since 2015 when he won with Cowards Close, with todays jockey, In fact todays jockey has won this twice. So who do we follow? Rathlin Rose is 2lb lower than when he won this race last year on soft. Sandown is certainly a specialist course, and we know Rathlin Rose comes alive here. The only concern is that he is carrying 12lb more than he did that day and is top weight. He hasn't been in the bet of form lately but i would put that down to the ground and they would have wanted to bring his handicap mark down again for this. Orbasa also has to carry a big w

Lingfield  1:30 Flirtare 11/2 2:00 Sheila's Fancy 13/2 2:35 Miss Minuty 11/4 3:10 Dragon Mall 1/4 3:40 Dream Magic 9/2 4:15 Pour L'amour 9/1 4:45 Dolphin Village 5/1 Dundalk 6:00 TY Rock Brandy 20/1 6:30 Max Velocity 3/1 7:00 Rosenborg Rider 7/1 7:30 Art Nouvelle 11/2 8:00 Mainicin 5/1 8:30 Spring Garden 4/1 9:00 Lizard Point 7/1 Newcastle  5:45 Be Bold 9/2 6:15 Elite Shadow 4/1 6:45 Dapper Man 12/1 7:15 Chingachgook 10/3 7:45 Mishaal 10/1 8:15 Chloris 7/2 8:45 Kingstreet Lady 11/4

Some nice winners on Thursday so am doing it again Sandown 1:20 Gassin Golf 7/2 (Subcontinent 4/1 nb) 1:50 Un Beau Roman 13/2 2:25 Naranja 12/1 3:00 Orbasa 3/1 3:30 Et Moi Alors 1/3 4:05 Aubusson 11/2 4:35 Herewego Herewego 5/4 Fakenham  1:40 Beyah 8/1 2:10 Rather Be 2/5 2:45 Dashing Perk 9/4 3:20 Cusheen Bridge 12/1 3:50 Calipso Collonges 2/9 4:25 Foxcub 1/1 4:55 Oborne Lady 16/1

Chelmsford  5:55 Maraakib 10/3 6:30 Bear Valley 6/1 7:00 Beautiful Memory 6/5 7:30 Arnarson 7/2 8:00 Breaking Free 7/1 8:30 Be Bold 10/3 9:00 Quebec 9/1

As its muddy out there i will look at best speed on going or overall speed. Kelso  1:25 Rons Dream 1/1 1:55 Taxmeifyoucan 7/2 2:25 Cyrus Darius 10/3 3:00 Shantou Flyer 5/4 3:35 Landecker 8/1 4:05 Killer Crow 12/1 4:40 Dali Mail 7/1 Leicester  1:40 Red Tortue 13/2 2:15 Grow Nasa Grow 5/1 * 2:45 Bright New Dawn 12/1 3:20 Tree Of Liberty 2/5 3:55 Tara Mist 3/1 4:30 Sybarite 8/1 Fontwell 2:05 Night Of Glory 5/4 2:35 Daleelak 200/1 (not any form really, and based on flat races) 3:10 Rothman 10/11 3:45 Navajo War Dance 9/1 4:20 Turban 9/2 4:55 Scorpian Haze 11/4

1st Willshebetrying 12/1 - 65 2nd The Green Ogre 6/1 - 55 3rd Minellatillmorning 4/5 - 45 3rd Prettylittlething 25/1 - 45 Willshebetrying won a weak race over C&D 2 races ago on heavy ground. She then tailed off and was pulled up her next time out over C&D. So its hard to know how he will go, her best form has come on heavy though so who knows. A horse who came 6th when she won went out to win at this grade next time out. So maybe Heavy ground is her thing. The Green Ogre has placed behind Rock The Kasbah at Fontwell on soft before, rated 20lb higher than today. His form is quite patchy though, but he likes the course the going should be fine, its just up to the horse who is handicapped to win. But will he? Minellatillmorning could be improving especially now he got that all important win behind him. The going shouldn't pose a problem, and probably is the one to beat based on recent form. However i am happy to stick to an ew bet. Navajo Dancer could be interes

1st Rons Dream 1/2 - 75 2nd Elusive Theatre 2/1 - 55 When i saw the race i thought it wouldnt be competitive, but it was. These 2 have met twice, and Elusive Theatre has come out on top twice. So why is Elusive Theatre not top here? Its because conditions are in Rons Dreams Favour today. Rons Dream has always been rated higher than Elusive Theatre. The first time they met over hurdles RD was rated 20lb higher and carrying top weight. Elusive Theatre came in front of her by only 3l. The next time they met, There was 15lb difference and ET came home 16L in front. Looking at that though i do think the course didnt suit, as it was Cheltenham and its a testing course. RD has never won going right handed and her best runs have come on not so testing tracks. Over Fences Rons Dream has certainly the advantage, came 2nd in a better Novice Chase than ET. Rons Dream has a Won 3 times on heavy and placed 5 times from 9 runs where ET is one win in 4 attempts on Heavy in what turns out wa

3:05 Best Solution 13/8 3:40 Don't Give Up 6/4 (NAP) 4:15 Danzeno 8/1 4:50 Gold Town 4/9 5:25 Natural Scenery 6/4 (nb) 6:00 Tashweeq 25/1

1:55 F/H Bee A Beneficiary 5/4 1:50 Lingfield Bengee Jump 7/4 3:20 Lingfield Samovar 9/2 3:50 Lingfield Red Verdon 4/5 2:40 Towcester Grand Introduction 2/1 3:40 Towcester Delire Destruval 7/4 8:15 Wolves Our Man In Havana 7/2

Lingfield  1:50 Bungee Jump 13/8 2:20 Cristal Pallas Cat 14/1 2:50 Sweet And Dandy 7/4 3:20 Samovar 9/2 3:50 Red Verdon 4/5 4:20 Pride Of Angels 13/8 4:50 Karam Albaari 12/1 Wolverhampton 5:15 Joeys Destiny 6/1 5:45 Secret Return 4/1 6:15 Breaking Records 1/1 6:45 Silvanus 33/1 7:15 Vigee Le Brun 33/1 7:45 Rock On Baileys 2/1 8:15 Our Man In Havana 7/2

Musselburgh  2:00 So Satisfied 2/1 2:30 Silver Concorde 2/11 3:00 Divine Spear 4/9 3:30 Our Lucas 7/2 4:00 Canny Style 2/1 4:30 Staigue Fort 16/1 5:00 Eternally Yours 5/1 Towcester  2:10 Goodnight Charlie 11/2 2:40 Grand Introduction 2/1 3:10 Braventara 5/2 3:40 Delire Destruval 7/4 4:10 How's My Friend 4/1 4:40 Hunt Politics 11/2 Fairyhouse  1:25 Moonlight Escape 6/5 1:55 Bee A Beneficiary 5/4 2:25 Ask Heather 5/2 2:55 It's All Happening 7/2 3:25 Bold Sky 6/4 3:55 Flemenstorm 9/2 4:25 Allannahs Gold 5/1

1st The Compeller 16/1 - 85 2nd Surpise Vendor 8/1 - 60 3rd Titus Bolt 13/2 - 35 The Favourite Our Lucas has the best current form when 2nd in a better race, but he will have to prove himself on the better ground. I do not always understand where my systems come from based on pure stats, then my system tells me The Compeller is the horse to go with, but the P's in his form are a worry. The first P i wonder if he was injured, because his next run was 572 days later, and on soft ground that would be hard for any horse to come back off a break like that. The better ground could suit and the shorter distance. The horse scored well because the trainer is in form and the jockey is flying. When teamed together they have a 40% strike rate in the last 14 days and 60% place rate. . Surprise Vendor is getting on a bit, he is capable at this level but his recent wins have come on heavy, in fact his last 3 wins have come on heavy. Titus Bolt will prefer this better ground, would pr

1st Pride Of Angels 11/8 - 90 2nd Billyoakes 5/1 - 65 3rd Strategic Heights 8/1 - 60 4th Gold Club 7/1 - 35 Pride Of Angels looks a good solid favourite here. Won over C&D in December and beat Strategic Heights, who has placed 3 times since, including another effort behind Pride Of Angels last time out. The 5th, 6ht 8th and 10th placed horses have all gone on to win since. The 5th Actually turned the tables on Pride Of Angels in her last race, but that doesn't really tell you the whole story because POA got caught behind another runner around the last bend, and the winner got away, however POA was closing like a steam train and just couldnt quite get there. She certainly left Strategic Heights for dust again who came 3rd. Given a clear run Pride Of Angels will go close. Billyoakes is handicapped to go close, possibly would have liked a couple pounds lower but he is a C&D winner off 3lb lower, should go well. Strategic Heights has been consistent since Visors wer

1st Isleofhopeandreams 25/1 - 85 2nd Folsom Blue 11/2 - 55 3rd Road To Riches 40/1- 45 3 horses on 40 Thunder & Roses, Woods Well and Childrens List. I am baffled a bit by Isleofhopeandreams, scored well when i did a system on his last race but PU. The facts are is, he will like the course, and he stays, the going is fine as well. PU in his last 2 races though, he needs to prove it in this class though. Potential is possibly there. Folsom Blue looks the likliest of winners though and i wouldnt put you off him either. I am sticking with the system but will do Folsom Blue as well My Selection: Isleofhopeandreams 25/1 (EW on Folsom Blue 11/2 as well)

3:25 Ayr Progress Drive 6/5 4:30 Ayr Finaghy Ayr 3/1 3:35 Exeter Pete The Feat 17/2 4:10 Exeter Elgegant Escape 10/11 4:40 Exeter La Rocher 15/8 3:15 Punchestown Benarty Hill 4/1 nb and close Georges Conn 8/1