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Showing posts from May 28, 2017

03/06/17 Interesting Horses

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2:35 Epsom - Epsom Icon 12/1
She won this race last year. And she lives up to her name, as she is 2/2 at Epsom. Last year she easily beat the French raider who was rated 109, this year she faces Laugh Aloud, who let's face it, is the one to beat. But Epsom Icon is an insane price for a horse with C&D form, at a track where it can give you an advantage.  She looks to have strong place claims at least.
5:50 Epsom - Ashpan Sam 14/1
He was 8th in this last year on a rating of 100, he is 11lb lower this year. Last years 8th can probably be ignored, albeit a solid run for a horse coming back off a break. He has always needed a run back from a break, this year he has had a run already, so that would have done the world of good and he will be fitter this year. If you take out the 8th and look at his other runs at Epsom, 1, 1, 2. The two first were this race in 2014 & 2015 with marks off  100 & 97, so he is 8lb lower than his last win here, plus they were on the back of at leas…

03/06/17 The Derby 4:30 Epsom - System

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1st Cracksman5/1 - 135 2nd Venice Beach 12/1 - 125 3rd Permian 11/1 - 100 4th Crowned Eagle 50/1 - 75 4th Pealer 200/1 - 75 5th Cliffs of Moher 5/1 - 70
By now everyone knows I have backed Cracksman at 40/1 and Cliffs Of Moher at 33/1, and I hope some people followed when I told you last year. I think both will go well and I will certainly get a run for my money.
So I am pleased Cracksman came top, bit surprised Cliffs Of Moher was that far down the list. But I do like Venice Beach at a nice ew price.
Cracksman won the Derby Trial here at Epsom, and for me Course form is everything. Permian was second to him. It was very close that day and Permian has won since and we have no worries that Permian will get the distance, but we do not know if Frankel's offspring are really bred to stay, the only offspring of his to run over 1m 4f has actually won, so it looks promising.
Venice Beach was not really a surprise to be honest, I quite like him. He won the Chester Vase at Chester and I think …

03/06/17 Epsom

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Epsom
2:00 Stalls: none Ratings: Emenem Going: none Speed: Drochaid My Selection: Drochaid 13/2
2:35 Stalls: Elbereth Ratings: Epsom Icon Going: Crowning Glory Speed: Laugh Aloud My Selection: Laugh Aloud 5/4
3:10 Stalls: Ballet Concerto Ratings: Oh This Is Us Going: Oh This Is Us Speed: Here Comes When My Selection: Oh This Is

03/06/17 Speed Analysis

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Did ok yesterday so I am sticking with them
Doncaster (good)
1:55 Waiting For Richie 9/2 2:30 Reflect Alexander 5/1 (Natural 9/2 is probably much better but unraced so no speed) 3:05 Jabbarockie 14/1 3:40 Fourth Way 9/4 (was Shypen but now a NR) 4:15 Sgt Reckless 10/1 5:10 Monticello 8/1 5:40 Marzouq 8/1

Musselburgh (good-firm)
1:40 Ralphy Boy 7/1 2:15 Rebel Assault 4/7 2:50 Unforgettable Filly 7/4 3:25 Time To Study 9/4 4:00 Thomas Cranmer 5/1
4:55 Royal Brave 5/1
5:30 Lady Clitico 9/2

Lingfield 

5:45 Ravenhoe 6/1
6:20 Too Many Shots 4/1
6:50 Bizet 20/1
7:20 Magic Applause 5/2
7:50 Isables On It 2/1
8:20 Tanasoq 3/1
8:50 Annie Salts 4/1

Newcastle 

6:10 Bustam 4/6
6:40 Nashville 20/1
7:10  Star Of Lombardy 8/1
7:40 Light Of Joy 5/1
8:10 Hussar Ballad 6/1
8:40 Faintly 9/4
9:10 Wilde Extravagance 6/1



02/06/17 A Multi Bet?

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6:50 Bath Mr Pocket 10/3
8:10 Goodwood Saint Contest 9/2
8:50 Bath King Oswald 9/4

02/06/17 Speed Analysis

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Catterick

1:50 Consequences 1/2 (of those who have run. Pursuing The Dream was nb)
2:25 Viewpoint 5/4
3:00 Glyder 3/1
3:35 Lester Kris 9/4
4:10 Be Royale 7/1
4:55 Lucky Beggar 2/1
5:30 Sir Geoffrey 10/3
6:05 Searanger SP

Bath 

5:45 Platos Kode 11/2
6:20 Fab 11/4
6:50 Mr Pocket 10/3
7:20 Dealers Choice 1/4
7:50 Harrison Stickle 7/2
8:20 Fly True 9/1
8:50 King Oswald 9/4

Doncaster

6:00 Teodoro 4/1
6:30 Livella Fella 2/1
7:00 Mudallel 9/4 (The Statesman 11/1 could have place claims)
7:30 Gallipoli 11/2 (Burnt Sugar 20/1 could go well)
8:00 Bashiba 11/2
8:30 Used To Be 14/1

Goodwood

6:10 Gabrial The Thug 6/4
6:40 Merchant Marnie 9/1 (only 2 have previous form though, so very vulnerable as times not great)
7:10 Auntie Pam 11/10 (only horse to have a run)
7:40 Iseemist 10/3
8:10 Saint Contest 9/2
8:40 Shaaqaaf 2/7


02/06/17 Coronation Cup 3:10 Epsom - System

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1st Journey 9/2 - 85
2nd Air Pilot 33/1 - 75
3rd Hawkbill 10/1 - 60
4th US Army Ranger 14/1 - 55
5th Highland Reel 7/4 - 50

Journey has been in the form of her life since stepping up to 1m 4f, with stats of 1, 2, 1, 1, 1. The 2nd was hardly a disgrace when beaten by Simple Verse in the Champion Fillies & Mares Group 1, when beaten less than a length in less than ideal conditions. If you look at the going and zoom in on todays good conditions, then she is 1, 1, 1. Her sire Dubawi has a 26% strike rate with offspring at Epsom, so you would like to think the course's quirks will not be an issue.

Journey has a 3lb mare's allowance and there is 3lb between her and Highland Reel in the handicap mark.

One interesting fact is, that both Journey and Highland Reel have raced over 1m 4f at Ascot last season in Group 1 races. Journey's was much quicker than Highland Reel, and Highland Reel had the advantage of quicker ground. You look back at previous runs at Ascot where t…

02/06/17 The Oaks 4:30 Epsom - System

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1st Rhododendron 5/6 - 50
2nd Enable 6/1 - 45
2nd Sobetsu 9/1 - 45
3rd Coronet 8/1 - 40

No surprise Rhododendron was top here, best speed stats, by Galileo, trainer and jockey are in form and she has every chance, however the trip for me is possibly a worry. Obviously Galileo offspring normally have no issue at 1m4f. But she has 3 full brothers and sisters. Flying The Flag was pacemaker in the 2013 Derby, so i guess that doesn't count. But the next time he ran at that distance was a Listed race and he nearly came last. Her brother Hanover Street did win a hurdle race over 2 miles, but failed at 1m 4f. And Sister Just Gorgeous did win at 1m 4f but a very poor maiden, and then failed miserably at 1m 4f the next 2 attempts, with a 12th out of 12 in a Listed. Saying all of that though, she has the class, she is already a Group 1 winner, and the one they all need to beat.

Enable is a horse who will stay and has won the Cheshire Oaks. Although since 1998, only one horse has won both, and t…

02/06/17 Epsom