The Novice Tipster

Yesterday was good but 1 nr meant the payout wasn't as good, so here we go again 1:40 Musselburgh - Burbank 4/9 2:10 Musselburgh - Frodon 4/7 2:40 Musselburgh - Peter The Mayo Man 11/8 3:10 Musselburgh - Baltimore Rock 15/8 1:30 Punchestown - Cilaos Emery 4/6 2:00 Punchestown - The Crafty Butcher 9/4 4:30 Punchestown - Clitandre 5/4

Newcastle 5:45 Stalls : none Rating : Ronnie The Rooster Going : Ronnie The Rooster Speed : Portledge My Selection : Ronnie The Rooster 11/2 6:15 Stalls : Hotfill Rating : Hotfill/Jack Flash/Trick Of The Lyte Going : Things Happen Speed : Things Happen My Selection : Hotfill 7/2* 6:45 Stalls : none Rating : Table Manners/Justice Pleasing Going : Table Manners/Justice Pleasing Speed : Major Muscari My Selection : Justice Pleasing 7/1 7:15 Stalls : none Rating : Touch Of Paradise Going : Roundabout Time Speed : War At Sea My Selection : Touch Of Paradise 9/4* 7:45 Stalls : none Rating : Safe Voyage Going : Testa Rossa Speed : Revolutionary War My Selection : Testa Rossa 5/1* 8:15 Stalls : none Rating : Sugar Town Going : Poppy In The Wind Speed : Englishwoman My Selection : Sugar Town 9/2* 8:45 Stalls : Spirit Of Zebedee Rating : Commanche Going : Commanche Speed : Ki Ki My Selection :

1st Beg To Differ 7/2 - 110 2nd Antony 7/1 - 70 3rd Rock The Kasbah 7/2 - 60 Thought Antony and Rock The Kasbah would dominate this so to see Beg To Differ dominate the stats in this race, there is only one horse i will be following. My Selection: Beg To Differ 7/2 

1st Dominada 10/1 - 85 1st Aristo Du Plessis 20/1 - 85 2nd London Prize 11/2 - 80 3rd Cool Sky 9/1 - 45 3rd Traditional Dancer 7/1 - 45 Optimus Prime is a bit of an unknown with stats, and you cannot rule him out. he scored very poor but only has a place over here. Ian Williams is going through a purple patch with his flat horses and that might convert to his jumpers. I actually thought London Prize would come top and was quite happy to go with him. Surprised he was pipped by the other 2. Cool Sky scored well and could be there at the end. Dominada has some good form and i will side with him here. But watch out for Optimus Prime and the Williams pair London Pride and Cool Sky. My Selection: Dominada 10/1

1st Ballyculla 22/1 - 50 2nd Billy No Name 22/1 - 45 2nd Rolling Dylan 6/1 - 45 2nd Connectable 25/1 - 45 Well i am Beyond Time in this race, he looks to possible be better than this lot, but today is heavy going and not all horses go well in it, so if there is a chink in his armour then the going might be it. In that case there a a few that might fancy their chances, including Billy No Name who is unbeaten on heavy going in 2 races. He will love conditions out there today, and at a mouthwatering 22/1, he might be interesting. El Terremoto is 1/1 on heavy as well. Ballyculla has won on heavy before and he tops it here - just. I will stick with him. But i quite fancy Billy No Name with his unbeaten record on heavy. My Seletion:  Ballyculla 22/1 & Billy No Name 22/1

1st Missed Approach 7/4 - 70 2nd Calett Mad 5/2 - 55 3rd Delusionsofgrandeur 15/1 - 40 3rd The Dutchman 15/2 - 40 Missed Approach scored solid points here and looks to be the one to beat. He is highly regarded as well, but then so is Calett Mad. Both horses go on the ground and both horses have connections in form and both are pretty decent jumpers for novices. So i can recommend a RFC on these. This is a race on who out jumps the other as they both have a big chance. My Selection: Missed Approach 7/4

1st Le Prezien 11/4 - 105 2nd Top Notch 11/4 - 75 2nd Clan Des Obeaux 2/1 - 75 3rd Baron Alco 6/1 - 70 I am shocked that La Prezien came top by so much, it seemed so tight between 4 of the 5 runners. I know Nicholls cannot split his 2 here, and Henderson fancies Top Notch. All should go well but Le Prezien came top by a bit so i am sticking with him My Selection: Le Prezien 11/4

1st Rayvin Black 8/1 - 95 2nd Buveur D'air 4/11 -85 3rd Irving 4/1 - 45 4th Hurry Henry 100/1 - 40 Buveur D'air is the one to beat, he is a leading contender for the Champion Hurdle. Not sure the heavy going is ideal, but i am sure he will win this on class alone. Irving tries new headgear today with a tongue Tie, so we might see him improve. He has also not encountered heavy ground before but he is a good horse. Rayvin Black is a horse i like, he loves Sandown and heavy going, i think he might give Buveur D'air a run for his money. Not sure he will beat him but he is a much better price and on a going day, he won't lay down and give up. He will fight till the line, so i am going with him just incase Buveur D'air doesnt like the going. My Selection: Rayvin Black 8/1

Redhotfillypeppers 4:30 Fairyhouse - Redhotfillypeppers 13/8 My ante post Mares Novice bet. She is pure class 3:00 Sandown - Behind Time 6/1 Been told to follow this horse 1:40 Wetherby - West Wizard 11/4 Always ell thought of but only now starting to fulfill his promise now chasing

This could be part of something that will be happening soon, so i am posting up to see how it goes. Some of these will be short though Pays around 19/1 - based on some systems 1.10 Fairyhouse Retour En France 8/11 1.25 Lingfield Byron Flyer 6/5 1.50 Sandown Buveur Dair 4/11 4.30 Fairyhouse Redhotfillypeppers 13/8 12.25 Musselburgh Gaitway 6/5

1st Alvarado 6/1 - 75 2nd Five In A Row 6/1 - 65 3rd Gonalston Cloud 7/1 - 40 4th Present Lodger 22/1 - 35 Actually looks a 2-3 horse race according to the system. Alvarado's stats over 4 miles is 4, 4, 2. The two 4th places were in the National. So we know the distance will be fine for him. He has a good weight thanks to Just A Par staying in. He has never been out the places in 3 attempts at Musselburgh and even won one. He is 3 wins from 6 on this going. My only worry is that he fell on his last run, so as long as he is over that, then i think he will run very well. Five In A Row is the big danger, although not going this far before he has come 2nd in a 3m 5f race, but he also pulled up tackling it for the 2nd times and, if he can recapture the form of the race before then he could go well. He has also won at Musselburgh so the course will not be an issue. Gonalston Cloud is interesting. He is another that hasn't gone this far before, but his 2nd in the North Y

Lingfield 2:00 Stalls : none Rating : Skidby Mill Going : Skidby Mill Speed : Skidby Mill My Selection : Skidby Mill 2/1 2:30 Stalls : Corporal Maddox Rating : Seek The Fair Land Going : Seek The Fair Land Speed : Flowers on Venus My Selection : Flowers On Venus 6/4 (STFL 20/1 ew?) 3:00 Stalls : none Rating : Critical Thinking Going : Dream Magic Speed : Dream Magic My Selection : Dream Magic 15/2 3:35 Stalls : Blaze Of Glory Rating : Blaze of Glory Going : Mailshot Speed : Mailshot My Selection : Blaze Of Glory 8/15 4:10 Stalls : none Rating : Neptune Star Going : Gnaad Speed : Gnaad My Selection : Gnaad 10/11 4:40 Stalls : Marshall Aid Rating : Salient Going : Attain Speed : Marshall Aid My Selection : Marshall Aid 16/1

  176 runners 111 winners 63.07%  = £154.04 profit 2.00    Lingfield       Skidby Mill 2/1 No longer qualifies if over 4/1

1st Midtech Star 7/1 - 65 2nd Ride The Lightening 11/4 - 55 2nd Cavalieri 14/1 - 55 3rd El Campeon 8/1 - 50 3rd Luv U Whatever 12/1 - 50 What a very close race this is. I hope my system has found the right horse here. Midtech Star has dropped to 1lb higher than his last win which was at this trip, coincidentally its the first time back at this exact trip since his win as well on the AW. Adam Kirby rode him that day. Adam Kirby's stats on him are 4, 2, 1, 1, 5. He has only won 3 times and Kirby has been on him for 2 of those wins. He certainly has claims back in this lass after competing in a class 3 race. El Campeon is 2 wins from 3 at this distance and was beaten by a horse possibly well handicapped last time out, they were nearly 4L clear of the 3rd horse. So3lb rise might mean he still has a good chance. Plus he has come a long way for this race. Ride The Lightening won last time out and the run maybe suggests he would like further, bit too short for me thoug

1st Aachen 28/1 - 80 2nd Belmount 12/1 - 75 3rd Streets Of Promise 12/1 - 60 3rd Goodtoknow 3/1 - 60 3rd Mountainous 8/1 - 60 Aachen is getting on now, and this could be a hard task. However he is starting to slip back down the handicap and today he is getting the one thing he seems to love above all else, and that is heavy bone weary ground. Last time he encountered heavy ground was over a year ago where he was beaten a neck by the gallant Soll. His stats on heavy are 1, 1, 1, 2. He is also 5 wins from 7 when running in February. This is probably his easiest assignment since 201, but the P's are too many. Belmount is a C&D winner and the ground shouldn't be an issue either. He should run well. Goodtoknow is trained by Kerry Lee so we know the distance and the going will not worry him. He is justified favourite and he has obvious claims. Mountainous loves a slog, but like Aachen he is getting a bit long in the tooth, however on older form he has claims. Str

Trainers Nicky Henderson 4.10 Leicester Reigning Supreme 15/8   B Ellison 7.00 Newcastle Mr Morse 13/2     J J Quinn 5.00 Newcastle Bloomin Lovely 5/2    John Gosdon 3.20 Kempton Bois De Boulogne 13/8   N P Mulholland 2.20 Kempton American Patrol 4/5 2.40 Leicester Dusty Raven 2/1 3.00 Hereford Knight Of Noir 12/1 3.20 Kempton Penny Poet 40/1 3.40 Leicester Fingerontheswitch 5/2 4.30 Hereford Runasimi River 5/1      Jockeys     Nicky Mackay 3.20 Kempton Bois De Boulogne 13/8   Daryl Jacobs 4.10 Leicester Laser Light 3/1    Charlie Deutsch 1.30 Hereford Miracle Cure 4/1 3.30 Hereford Aachen 16/1