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Showing posts from May 8, 2016

14/05/16 Stalls Advantage?

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2:10 Newbury
Stalls 3-6 have a strike rate of 82% between them meaning Stringbark Creek, Bershire Boy and Mehmas have an oustanding chance of winning. - i am hoping Global Applause will win this but is not Mehmas could be a good bet

4:10 Newmarket
Stalls 1 - 4 have a strike rate of 55%, not massive but when there are 11 stalls and thats between just of 4 of them, the first 4 stalls look interesting. Good for Venturous, Show Stealer, Marsha, Take The Helm

4:45 Newmarket
Silly one this, as only 3 runners and only 2 races run with 3 runners. But both winners have come from stall 2, Opposition has been given that stall today

Thirsk overall the stalls seem to hold a slight advantage for middle to high numbers.

14/05/16 4:30 Newbury - System

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1st Vivre Pour Vivre 7/1 - 75
2nd Imperial Aviator 10/3 - 60
3rd Ebtihaal 10/1 - 50

VPV won very well last tie out on heavy ground, todays ground should suit as well and there is no worries there. He is entered into a Group 2 at Ascot, so clearly he is highly thought of and he is only rated 88, he is very attractively handicapped for me.

Ebtihaal is entered for the Derby so this could be very interesting to see how well he does.

Imperial Aviator won on similar going as today last time out after a break and he is entitled to come on from that.

My Selection: Vivre Pour Vivre 7/1


14/05/16 2:25 and 3:35 Newmarket - Systems

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2:25 Newmarket

1st Ehtiraas 1/1 - 60
2nd Generalship 12/1 - 50
3rd Western Prince 11/1 - 45
4th Huge Future 3/1 - 40

Ehtiraas is the horse who should take this race. His debut he got beat by subsequent Group 3 winner Crazy Horse in a photo finish, And he came in front of C Note who came back after a break to win, then went out and came 5th in a Group 3, beaten not very far. There has been 13 subsequent runners in Class 5 races 4 have won but 8 have placed. He is dropping to class 5 today and he has a massive chance of taking this.

The Gosden duo should go well and Huge Future has a decent stall. I cannot see past the fave here. If your looking for value then the Gosden pair will offer you that, with a slight preference for Western Prince, as stats looked good.

My Selection: Ehtiraas 1/1 (or if you want ew value Western Prince 11/1)


3:35

1st Scrutineer 11/4 - 110
2nd Thikriyaat 5/4 - 100
3rd Dragon Mall - 70

Race looks between the favourite and the 2nd favourite. Thikriyaat could be anything …

14/05/16 5:10 Thirsk - System

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1st Withold 6/4 - 35
1st Rosette 50/1 -35
2nd Jethro 50/1 - 30
3rd Goldmember 3/1 - 25

Withhold is my tracker horse and to be honest is the one to beat, should move onto better things after taking this. He will have learned a lot from that last run, and he will prefer the quicker ground.

Rosette is very interesting at 50/1 and well as Jethro. You can never rule big priced horses out in races like this because some take a while for things to click. Jethro's connections are 1/1 with Maidens in the last 14 days.

Rosette came 4th here over C&D was beaten by a horse called High Bridge, who came 6th in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. She possibly needed the run last time after 116 days off and could go ok, she has the 2nd best speed over the exact distance.

My Selection: Withold 6/4 (small ew on Rosette 50/1)

14/05/16 Newbury

14/05/16 My Tracker Horses/Ante Post Bet

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Chastushka 5.05 Newbury 9/2- NB Dark Crescent 7.45 Doncaster 15/2 Global Applause 2.10 Newbury 8/13 Torrid 2.50 Thirsk 5/1- NAP Withhold 5.10 Thirsk 2/1 King Of Rooks 3.20 Newbury 9/1 Rio's Cliffs 8.45 Doncaster 14/1  I have some horses who have been on my list for a very long time, not sure about them as much Gypsy Eyes 5:05 Newbury 16/1 - been following her for a long time now, but info i have on Chastuska stops me backing her, she could place though Brandenburg Gate 3:05 Bangor 7/2

Ante Post Bet
3:55 Newbury - Dutch Connection 10/1 - needs better ground

13/05/16 Aintree

13/05/16 9:00 Hamilton - System

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1st Salvatore Fury 2/1 - 95
2nd Bronze Beau 7/1 - 85

Salvatore Fury looked good in this. He is 8lb lower than his last win, and only 4lb higher than his last win on good-firm over 5f. So he must have a good chance here at a track he likes. Trainer is in form.

Bronze Beau has a good stall, but trainer isnt in form. He does like Hamilton though

My Selection: Salvatore Fury 2/1

13/05/16 2:20 York - System

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1st Lydia's Place 20/1 - 110
2nd Dheban 16/1 - 70
3rd Excessable 12/1 - 45

El Astronaute has been running well in better company, he is dropping in grade here and has to go well.

Lydia's Place was very impressive in the stats. She is 2/2 on good-firm, 1/1 over C&D, and best speed stats. Trainer is in ok form, jockey is a worry but his claim is useful. Don't know why she ran poorly last time out, no reason was given, however back on good-firm she should put in a good run again. She is back from a break so hopefully she will go well

Dheban scored very well as well, his stats were helped by the good form of his trainer and jockey. He should run well

My Selection: Lydia's Place 20/1

13/05/14 Stalls Advantage?

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9:00 Hamilton
Stall 1: Bronze Beau 6/1 - 27%
Stall 2: Little Belter 5/1 - 24%
Stall 5: Final Venture 3/1 - 7%
Stall 6: Swendab 12/1 - 11%

2:00 Newbury
Stalls 4-7 have a 79% strike rate which is good for - Oceanus, Zebulon, Cunco, Barrington.
Maybe Cunco can make a winning start after all as his stall has 25% of the 79%


5:00 Newmarket 
Stall 7:  Jack's Revenge 10/1 - 26%
Stall 4: Simply Shining 7/1 - 17%
Stall 5: Emerald 5/1 - 7%


2:20 York (small stats figures of  11 races)
81% of winners have come from stalls 1-7 which is great for Curtain Call, Lydia's Place, Paddy Power, Ayresome Angel, Just That Lord, Teresar, Dheban.

5:10 York
Stalls 4-7 have had 78% of winners, which is good for Lil Sophella, Azagal, Three Gracez and Invoke



13/05/16 York