The Novice Tipster

A good day yesterday for the stalls, let's hope it's the same again today. Please remember that the stall might show an advantage but the horse might not be good enough to win. 2:30 Carlisle Stall 3: Hotfill 11/2 - 33% Stall 4: Royal Celebration 16/1 - 0% Stall 7: Bellamy 50/1 - 4%   3:05 Carlisle Stall 3: Anieres Boy 15/8 - 33% Stall 4: Tribesman 33/1 - 0% Stall 7:Windforpower 4/1 - 4% 3:40 Carlisle Stall 3: Judith Gardenier 100/1 - 27% Stall 4:  Little Miss Nelly 100/1 - 0% 4:10 Carlisle Stall 3: Al Shahaniya 4/1 - 27% Stall 4: Hidden Treasures 20/1 - 0% 7:10 Catterick Stalls 1 - 3 have a 56% strike rate out of the 9 stalls, maybe a combination t/c or fc on these 3 - Castlerea Tess, Frenchie, Johnny B Goode- JBG single bet (Johnny B Goode took advantage of a great stall last time as well) 1:50 Goodwood  Stalls 1 and 2 have a 61% strike rate between the 2 stalls out of the 6, so a f/c on Peachy Carnehan and Quench Dolly. Peachy Carnehan would

5:50 Sandown Stalls 1 - 5 has a 75% strike rate the winner is likely to be one of the following - Grizzel, Whiteley, Bithynia, Snoozy Sioux or Madame Bounty  7:30 Sandown Stalls 5-7 have a 67% strike rate, so the likeliest winner will be Midhmaar, Yangtze and Primitivo - i suggest a combination t/c or f/c

1st Great Wide Open 4/1 - 85 2nd Indian Tomahawk 10/1 - 70 2nd Zylan 10/1 - 70 3rd Hurricane Cass 3/1 - 55 Indian Tomahawk has a poor stall, where as Zylan and Hurricane Cass has a good stall. Great Wide Open has impressed me in the stats and i am happy to stick with him, the hood is added today which could help. My Selection: Great Wide Open 4/1

1st Blue Sonic 25/1 - 85 2nd Anonymous Lady 7/2 - 75 3rd Bapak Asmara 4/1 - 70 Blue Sonic on stats i ooked at should have a great chance, he has an awful stall though and steps up massively in grade. Could be a bit optimistic, however BS does like it at Ayr, and won 3 in a row here last year. C&D win on good-soft is 2/2. Anonymous Lady would probably want to going to be firmer than this, but does like Ayr. Not sure she can win on this ground though. Has a good stall. BA will like the track and the going and could go well. My Selection: Blue Sonic 25/1

4:40 Bath Stall 8: Mistime 6/1 - 23% Stall 1: Kodiac Moment 16/1 - 7% Stall 3: The Nazca Lines 6/1 - 7%

Ayr 1:30 Stalls : Captain Hawk/Dalton Rating : Book Of Poetry/Northern Thunder Going : Book Of Poetry Speed : Captain Hawk My Selection : Captain Hawk 5/2 2:00 Stalls : Hab Reeh Rating : Hab Reeh Going : Mystical King Speed : Sea Of Green My Selection : Captain Joey 11/4 (Hab Reeh 12/1 ew) 2:35 Stalls : Sneakinpete Rating : Insolanceofoffice Going : Insolanceofoffice Speed : Bogsnog My Selection : Insolanceofoffice 4/1 3:10 Stalls : Hakam Rating : Hakam Going : Favourite Treat Speed : Alejandro My Selection : Hakam 5/2 3:45 Stalls : none Rating : Nice Vintage Going : Merchant Of Dubai Speed : Lostock Hall My Selection : Merchant Of Dubai 16/1 4:20 Stalls : none Rating : Maleficent Queen Going : Maleficent Queen/Chain Of Daisies Speed : Namhroodah My Selection : Maleficent Queen 11/4 4:55 Stalls : Rothesay Chancer Rating : Anonymous Lady Going : Blue Sonic Speed : Lexi’s Hero My Selec

1st Misu Pete 11/1 - 75 -(stall 5% - bad stall) 2nd Monna Valley 14/1 - 70 (stall 10% - best stall) 3rd Ocean Legend 8/1 - 65 (stall 6%) 4th Eljaddaaf 12/1 - 55 (stall 3% - worst stall) Misu Pete certainly has a good chance here, but the his very wide stall is a big worry, however at least he will not be boxed in like he was last time out, he could of possibly won that race and it was much hotter than this race. Monna Valley is very interesting, probably needed the run last time out and is dropping down in class. only 2lb higher than his last win as well, he has a good stall and should run well. Ocean Legend is a good old servant, 11 times winner at Kempton, 10 of those over C&D. However his best runs have been in claimers and sellers lately, last won a handicap in April last year. My Selection: Misu Pete 11/1 (Monna Valley 14/1 small ew just in case stall causes issues with MP)

Fancy Charlie Hills trio at Ayr - so have done in a Multi Bet - treble pays about 37/1 Captain Hawk 1.30 Ayr 2/1 Captain Joey 2.00 Ayr 11/4 Hakam 3.10 Ayr 5/2

1st Ghostly Arc 9/4 - 65 2nd Norville 6/1 - 50 3rd Hydrant 4/1 - 45 Ghostly Arc won over todays distance last time out in a hotter race than today. He has gone up 6lb for that run, which seems a bit harsh, so that could be a worry, although his jockey claims 3lb which will help. Norville will like the going and is stepping up in distance. Hydrant loves the going and has won 2 from 4 at Ayr. He won at Ayr this time last year, he is now 10lb lower in the handicap. I think he will be a big contender My Selection: Ghostly Arc 9/4 (Hydrant RFC)

I am told Newcastle is a very even track and there is showing no advantage, so lets hope thats right. I have gone for the horse who will like this surface, however if your horse you like is named then it should have a good chance. Today is a bit of a learning curve, see if Ratings/speed or going has the best results Newcastle 2:00 Rating : Steccando Going : Tap The Honey Speed : The Magic Pencil My Selection : Tap The Honey 12/1 2:35 Rating : Chilworth Bells Going : Demonstration Speed : Monsieur Chevalier My Selection : Demonstration 9/1 3:05 Rating : Thello Going : Steal Stockholder Speed : Kicking The Can My Selection : Steal Stockholder 18/1 3:40 Rating : Galilee Chapel/Graceful Art Going : Outlaw Torn Speed : Who’s Shirl My Selection : Outlaw Torn 11/2 4:10 Rating : Cape Speed Going : Peril/Turbine Speed : Late Hawill My Selection : Peril 6/4 (Turbine for fc) 4:40 Rating : Llewelyn Going : Kyllach Me S

4:05 Kempton 1st Gowanauthat 5/1 - 90 2nd Jimmy Shan 8/1 - 60 3rd Minella Web 10/1 - 45 3rd Billy Lagan 12/1 - 45 Gowanauthat does seems to go better in a class 5 race, and today its class 4, however he is only up 4lb so he could well be involved again, he won nicely last time out. 5/1 is an ok price to risk an ew bet. Jimmy Shan is dropping back in distance. He pulled up last time but that was over 3 miles on soft, he does interest me. My Selection: Gowanauthat 5/1  4:40 1st Abyaat 7/1 - 80 2nd Frozen Over 6/1 - 60 3rd Mr Lando 4/1 - 50 3rd Directional 7/1 - 50 Abyaat i feel was harshly treated by the handicapper after his last win, he was put up 7lb for a 2L win, and now he shoulders top weight in a slightly better race, however the cheekpieces seemed to work last time out and they just might again. His only win has come on good going over this distance. Hopefully 7/1 could look very good for him. Frozen over is down to a winnable mark and could go well.

1. This is a new system i am trying out based on first time handicappers. 563 runners 182 winners = 32.33% profit of  £388.50 if placed £1 stake on each horse 3.35 Kempton - Neumond 13/2 8.40 Leicester - St Michel 5/1      

2:10 Brighton Stall 6 - Sir Theodore 13/2 - 25% Stall 4 - Al Sailiyah 4/1 - 5% 6:00 Windsor Stall 3 - City Of Angkor Wat 14/1 - 26%

1st Show Legend 25/1 - 50 2nd Absolute Zero 6/1 - 45 3rd Sir Roderic 6/1 - 30 3rd Dubai's Secret 11/1 - 30 Show Legend showed some early promise as a 2yo winning a class 2 Nursery, the 3d horse that day went on to win a class 2 race, this Class 4 should be within his grasp. They found an issue after his last run but now he is fully fit and raring to go. He could take all the beating, he is certainly worth a chance at this price. Absolute Zero has been gelded since his last run, he might improve, but depends how fit he is against race fit horses. Miniturist is also another horse who has been gelded since his last run.4 Sir Roderic could go very well, he will certainly like the going and distance will suit as well My Selection: Show Legend 25/1

Ripon tend to have a slight advantage on certain stalls. So here is the time of the race and the horse/s in the best stalls. All the names here will only be ones that show a definite advantage. It' then all up the horse to take advantage of it. 2:00 Our Charlie Brown 28/1 2:30 Ashurst Beacon 3/1 3:35 Giddy 5/2 (my nap which is always nice) 4:45 Perceysvivace 7/2 5:15 Pearl Noir 13/2 & Pabusar 10/1