09/04/21 4:05 Aintree - Hunters Chase - System

 

1st Semetagel 6/1 -50

2nd Ravished 33/1 - 40

2nd Kashmir Peak 50/1 - 40

2nd Greensalt 100/1 - 40

3rd Bishops Road 66/1 -35

Going over the National fences is tough and anything can happen, this system as you can see is very close but im hoping the winner is named above. But it all does depend on a clear round. 

Semetagel came 6th in the Grand Sefton in December over C&D off 142, today he arrives off 138, he also came 3rd in the Grand Sefton in 2017 off 144, so although he is now 12, all his 3 runs have been on soft or heavy and i actually think he would like the better ground with his form on good is 2, 1, 2, 8, 3. This is probably been his aim all year so will be primed for this. He came 2nd in a Hunter Chases in February who was carrying 11lb less than him, and the winner has since gone on to win again, He is sure to give his best.

Ravished pulled up in the Hunters Chase at Cheltenham and the race before that, which is worrying, however the predicted good ground should be ok. Its his first time meeting these obstacles which is not a bad thing as there have been many winners who win after going over the National fences for the first time. I just wonder if the age of 13 he is ready to hand up his shoes. 

Kashmir Peak i thought came a clear 2nd. He is another who comes here for the first time over the fences. the distance is fine and the ground should be ok too. he was well beaten by Semetagal last time out but he had been off the track for nearly a year, so he would have needed the run. He will come here a lot fitter, and although im not sure he can reverse the form with Semetagel, he could well be closer. 

Greensalt has won 6 times in his career and 2 have come on good and 3 on good to soft, so a little rain won hurt but he prefers this going. His more recent form on soft ground hasnt been great so a return to good ground is eye opening because his last run on it was at Kelso over 2m 5f and a half and he won. He also came 7th in this when it last ran in 2019 and it was soft that day, so the better ground could show him in a better light. Apart from Semetagel of those named above and despite 100/1 i would see what price i could get ew and how many they are paying for

Bishops Road will appreciate the distance here and the better ground 2, but my system really has picked out the old boys. They are all probably playing for places behind Billaway with Semetagel the main danger, but these fences do funny things and can revitalise horses.

Billaway scored 20, but his form in mainly on deeper ground. Still looks the one to beat

My Selection: Semetagel 6/1 (will look at Greensalt 100/1 and see how many places i can get on the race)