The Novice Tipster

  The Grand National   1st Johnnywho 8/1 - 50 1st Imperial Saint 50/1 - 50 2nd Panic Attack - 45 3rd Jagwar 9/1 - 40 3rd Iroko 11/1 - 40   FYI I Am Maximus scored 35, those on 30 were Gerri Colombe, Haiti Couleurs, Mr Vango, Top Of The Bill, Deep Cave, Grangeclare West, Favouri De Champdou and Final Orders.  I have been on Captain Cody and Grangeclare West for a while, so I was hoping they would make into the top list, alas they didn't. I am glad though, as it makes me look at the race much harder.  Negatives were Gerri Colombe, Banbridge, Haiti Couleurs, Lecky Watson and I Am Maximus who all carry over 11st 9lb, It's tough to carry a big weight over this distance.  Johnnywho won the Ultima at Cheltenham, and it's a good race to win seeing as Corach Rambler won it on his way the National victory in the same year.  Corach Rambler carried 10st 5lb to victory and Johnnywho has 10st 4lb. Good to soft is spot on for Johnnywho, he is definitely a better hors...

4:00 The Grand National  1st Vanillier 10/1 - 60 2nd Minello Indo 25/1 - 55 3rd I Am Maximus 13/2 - 50 4th Chantry House 100/1 - 45 5th Bravemansgame 50/1 - 40   This system has done very well for National horses in the past, however it is important to bare in mind that this is all based on stats and trends. So a horse who has won the race before is slightly favoured. So it does come as a little shock that Vanillier came top.  Vanillier was 2nd in this race in 2023 off 147, and why im highlighting this race as that day it was good to soft that day as it will be on Saturday, he is rated 147 this time and in 2023 he carried 10st 6lb. Everything is the same as 2023, the only difference is he is 2 years older. His run last time out was much better than the 3rd, as they jockey nearly took the wrong course and dropped right back in the field. Last year it was soft ground, he carried 6lb and it was a lot harder, this year there are more things in his favour. Minella Indo a forme...

  Aintree   1:45 Ratings: Stoney Mountain Going: Reserve Tank/Polish Speed:   Tea Clipper My Selection: Tea Clipper 15/2   2:25 Ratings: Straw Fan Jack Going: My Drogo Speed:   Guards Your Dreams My Selection: Guard Your Dreams 16/1   3:00 Ratings: Shishkin Going: Shishkin Speed:   Shishkin My Selection: Shishkin 1/10   3:35 Ratings: Paisley Park Going: Thyme Hill Speed:   Thyme Hill My Selection: Thyme Hill 5/2   4:15 Ratings: Top Notch Going: Happygolucky Speed:   Top Notch My Selection: Top Notch 7/1   5:15 Ratings: Canelo Going: Give Me A Copper Speed:   Mister Malarky My Selection: Canelo 40/1   6:20 Ratings: Pressure Sensitive Going: Brave Kingdom/Parramount/World of Dreams Speed:   Super Six My Selection: Super Six 10/1

Grand National Trends – System I have looked into the trends in the last 20 years, and put them into a system.  With particular trends the system kept all 20 previous winners plus many placed horses, in fact a minimum of 1 placed horse behind the winner. Unfortunately it only offered a list of 14 horses, so you need to break them down.  If you follow my actual system i posted earlier then, Blaklion, Definitly Red and Sahir Du Rheu have come up in both. DR is my horse anyway, so i am going to go with Blaklion and Saphir Du Rheu as well. But if there are any in this list you like, well if the trends remain strong, the winner should be named here as well as a placed horse. Bishops Road Blaklion Cocktails At Dawn Definitly Red Doctor Harper Goodtoknow La Vaticane Lord Windermere Regal Encore Roi Des Francs Saphir Du Rheu Stellar Notion Tenor Nivernais Ucello Conti

1st More Of That 12/1 - 70 2nd Blaklion 12/1 - 65 3rd Cause Of Causes 14/1 - 45 3rd Definitely Red 10/1 - 45 3rd Saphir Du Rheu 18/1- 45 4th Just A Par 40/1 - 40  4th Regal Encore 50/1 - 40 4th Le Mercurey 50/1 - 40 4th Vieux Lion Rogue 11/1 - 40 The Grand National is a lottery, you can do probably no worse than stick a needle in it, and do better. All the stats in the world will not make a difference if a horse doesn't jump well of a horse falls in front of him. But here are the system horses. More Of That and Blaklion have shone here with the stats, More Of That worries me, there is no doubt he will love the going and gets on well with Geraghty, He won the World Hurdle at Cheltenham a few years ago, so no doubt he stays, but just a niggling in my mind that he has never won over fences at 3 miles or above. His form has been patchy lately and his handicap mark hasn't relented. This is a drop in class though, so he is a class horse on his day. That could help him...

What makes a Grand National Winner? For me the horse has to jump well, have the stamina and above all i do like a horse to have had experience of the fences. So i went through the runners up to number 46. And i marked out several pointers. ·          Horses who have won over 3 miles (11 out of the last 11 have all won over 3 miles before the National) ·          Horses who have won over hurdles this season (5 of the last 6 winners, all had a pipe opener over hurdles) ·          Stamina, i want see who has proven stamina, so looked at horses who have completed 3m 6f+ ·          Also course experience is interesting, especially with that very long run in. So i have looked to see if a horse has won a race at Aintree, either hurdles or the Mildmay course or even over the National Fences. ·   ...