The Novice Tipster

  4:05 Topham  1st Boombawn 12/1 - 60 2nd Gentleman De Mee 7/1 - 55 3rd Lisnamult Lad 16/1 - 50 4th Viroflay 25/1 - 45 4th Mahons Glory 18/1 - 45   Boonbawn did well here, its interesting and he didnt stand out to me but his consistancy got him in front here. He is a Grade 2 winner over fences in a Novice Chase, actually just beating Soul Icon. The more it dries out the better. Its interesting as the current favourite is the one Harry Skelton has chose in Madara who only scored 20. The track suits to, and although he has never seen these fences before, he jumps well and the drying ground is a huge plus.  Gentleman De Mee won this last year and is 3lb higher in the handicap, but only carries 1lb more. He is 2/2 at Aintree, once over hurdles and once over these fences. He is a class horse and comes here with strong claims again. Lisnamult Lad was 2nd the Gentleman De Mee last year and is also up 3lb since that win and as Gentleman De Mee he only carries 1l...

  4:05 Topham Chase 1st Gemirande 50/1 - 55 1st Ginnys Destiny 20/1 - 55 2nd Eldorado Allen 25/1 - 45 2nd Latenightpass 16/1 - 45 3rd Ga Law 25/1 - 40   This was a really close race. Gemirande i thought was going to runaway with the scoring but Ginnys Destony snuck up Gemirande will love the going and the distance, is much better going left handed rather than right, so keep that in mind when looking at his last run.  He needs a career best run, but this is over the National fences, so you just dont know what will happen.  Ginnys Destiny has a couple of question marks but he has some fancy form. The going he would probably prefer softer, but the distance is spot on. He has some headgear and a tongue tie added to try and get some more improvement. He might go ok. Just depends on how he takes to the fences Eldorado Allen is another im not quite sure about 0/5 at Aintree and that includes 20th last year in the National over the fences. I think this trip is possibly a bit...

  1st Bill Baxter 4/1 - 55 1st Shakem Uparry 13/2 - 55 2nd Frero Banbou 20/1 - 40 2nd Good Boy Bobby 33/1 - 40 3rd was Quel Destin, Your Darling, Celebre D'allen all on 35.  I wasnt aware my system got the top 2 in the market up there. I hoped they were big prices.  Bill Baxter i put first for one reason, and that is weight. No horse has won on soft or heavy in the race carrying more than 11st 2lb. So its a big negative for me despite his brilliant win at Cheltenham. He ticks a lot of boxes though so you cant rule him out. Ground and distance are perfect. Its just the weight for me.  Bill Baxter won this last year off 1lb lower, that was on soft but he doesnt mind heavy . He loves a flat track and going left handed, and likes the fences.  Frero Banbou is 2lb lower than when 3rd in the Grand Sefton on heavy ground. So ditance ground and course are fine. He will go well, but Ventia Williams has tried 18 times to win this race and the best was a 2nd and 3rd, can sh...

  1st Mac Tottie 16/1 - 65 2nd Spiritofthegames 16/1 - 45 2nd Romain De Senam 50 - 45 3rd Ridersonthestorm 40/1 - 40 Mac Tottie won the Grand Sefton here in November, and he shot up in the handicap, but he comes here on exactly the same mark has when winning over C&D, The average rated horse that day was 127, and today its 142. He was rated 135, so actually comes into this carrying only 10st. He did come back for the Becher Chase in December and fell at The Chair which is a worry but i think that would have always been a little too far anyway and it is his only fall of his career. The ground is perfect, the distance is perfect, the track is fine. He needs to step up to beat some of the Irish horses, but he could go very well. He has also beaten Senior Citizen, Via Dolorosa among others over the fences too.  Spritofthegames i thought scored better. he has run at Aintree, but not over the National Fences. He actually came 3rd here in a Grade 3 last year in a race where the a...

  1st Modus 11/1 - 60 2nd Morning Vicar 10/1 - 35 3rd Huntsman Son 16/1 - 30 3rd Relentless Dreamer 40/1 - 30 Over the National fences anything can happen and this system bar Modus is so close. A race like this the horse can need a lot of luck so even the best of stats wont help.  Modus is a lovely old boy and has been around the block but one thing is for sure, he runs so well fresh. In fact his stats when off for over 100 days his stats are 2, 1, 3, 1, 6, 1,  his Aintree form is 11, 5, 1, 3. The 5, 1, 3, were over fences and the 5th was a grade 1. and the 3rd was over C&D over the National course last time out in December. He runs off the same mark and he was beatn just under 2L by Sir Jack Yeats who came 2nd and where as Modus is on the same mark, Sir Jack Yeats has gone up 5lb, so Modus could easily turn the form around if he doesnt try to walk through Valentines again. Will be interesting to see how Semetagal has done on Thursday as both these were well clear of ...