08/04/21 4:40 Aintree Red Rum Chase- System
2nd Getaway Trump 5/1 - 50
2n Brelan D'as 33/1 - 50
3rd Jan Maat 20/1 - 45
Grey Diamond will aprreciate the better ground here with stats on good of 1, 4, 5, 4, F, 1, 3, 2, 1. His last win he beat Dostal Phil quite cosily, there was a 10lb difference that day with Dostal Phil carrying 10lb more and today only 5lb difference. Dostal Phil seems to want the rain which he wont get here. The average rating for that race was 136, and this race its 137, so for a Class 3 race it was very competitive. Grey Diamond has only run 5 times over fences and this is his toughest test to date, he could still be improving. Track should suit well as he actually runs very well on flat tracks, with stats of 1, F, 3, 1. So he could run well.
Getaway Trump has a very big weight here, and thats my biggest concern. Only 2 horses in the last 23 years have carried more than 11st 8lb to victory. Up 9lb for his latest victory, and he loves this ground, his stats on good are 4, 1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 4, 1, 3, 1. His last win the average rated horse was 134 and was a Class 2. The 3rd placed horse who he beat 16L, came out and won a Class 4 race by 40L since, but the average rating in that race was 106, so although it franks the form it probably doesnt look so good that it was a drop in class. He has big claims but the weight is the negative for me.
Brelan D'as will probably find this tough but in his whole career he has only ever won 3 times and 2 of those were on good ground. He has been running up to 3 miles, but has won on good over 2m and half a furlong. Its a tough one to work out because he hasnt run over 2m since Oct 2019, and he was running well before unseating 3 out. He went straight up in distance to 2 and a half miles to 3 miles. Saying all of that, he came 5th in this very race in 2019, it was soft that day, but he is 1lb lower, so he could run ok but i think at this distance he would probably want a test of stamina.
Jan Maat is partnered by the Cheltenham heroes Rachel Blackmore and Henry De Bromhead. His recent form hasnt been inspiring, but he certainly prefers the better ground and the track should suit. He is a Grade 3 novice Chase winner but the recent form is the concern.
A horse i want to bring up is Frero Banbou, as this system is based on as many stats as possible, and Frero Banbou doesnt have those over here. Its hard to see how his french form works out. His win was very good though, and the 3rd placed horse has run very well since. The ground is a question mark because he has run on very testing conditions in france but won here easily on Good-soft.
My Selection: Grey Diamond 12/1
Comments
Post a Comment