09/04/21 1:45 Aintree - System

 

1st Wilde About Oscar 9/2 - 90

2nd Monte Cristo 9/1 - 55

3rd Nightboattoclyro 20/1 - 50

3rd Jacamar 20/1 - 50

This race was incredibly close race for all but Wild About Oscar, who ran away here. 

My biggest worry is that only 2 horses in the last 23 years has won over the rating of 145, at 150 it will be hard. He is a C&D winner in a Class 4 Novice, he won that with ease. Is 2/2 on Good to Soft. His last race the average rating was 135 and this race is 136. He is 4lb higher since that win. Its a big ask carrying this weight but he is only 6 and his potentially still improving over hurdles and 6yo have a good record in this race.

Monte Cristo, is also unexposed over hurdles and is only 5. He was a easy winner over 2m 5f at Kempton in a Class 3. In fact he won very cosily, and the 2nd placed horse has won since and the 3rd placed horse has since come 2nd in a Grade 3. Also had Jarveys Plate back in 6th. So the potential is there. He then went to the Coral Cup and was pressing for places when badly hampared by a faller and he lost all chance and came in 11th. You have to forgive that run and he was running a blinder before that. He could have every chance here.

Nightboattoclyro probably wants the rain to come, he actually ran really well at Kempton in the Silver Plate but i think the good ground was possibly a little agaisnt him. He could run well at a nice price, he won a Class 2 in February where the average rated horse was 136 like today but it was on soft. He is a nice big price and is not without a chance

Jacamar is a C&D winner in a race where the average rated horse was 135, where he beat Strong Glance (45) by a length. He is 13lb higher here where Strong Glance is only 1lb higher, thats a massive swing in the favour of Strong Glance and there was only 5 points between them here, so Strong Glance could be interesting, but he is one that looks to want the rain and he will not get that. Where as Jacamar will prefer the drier ground. And he beat Southfield Harvest at Wincanton who was fancied at Cheltenham but didnt run. He is very exposed though, but he could run ok.

As i said apart from Wilde About Oscar it is a very close race, there were several on 45 Edwardstone, Amour De Nuit and Strong Glance. So its very competitive but i think Wild About Oscar is the one to beat with Monte Cristo definitely having major claims at a better price

My Selection: Wilde About Oscar 9/2