The Novice Tipster

Derby rivals meet again for the Irish Derby 2:10 Chester - Salford Red Devil 8/11 SRD beat consistent Memory Styx over C&D last time out, overcoming a wide stall draw. This time he is in the middle. He has to give weight away all round apart from 1, but he is an improver and should run a big race. 2:45 Chester - Lady Ibrox 8/1 e/w (nap) She seems to like it here. Been racing in higher classes so this is a step down today. Stats on this track are 2, 1*, 1* (*higher class). She is now down to the same mark as her first victory at the course in a higher class. I think she might prefer a little rain, but the ground is ok. Dale Swift has ridden her in all 3 of her career wins, he takes the reins again. She has very strong e/w claims and a good stall draw. 4:50 Newcastle - Whispering Warrior 5/2 Jim Crowley has ridden him 3 times and won on him 3 times. The track will suit and although not raced on Good-Soft yet, he has raced and won on the All weather, so suggests that t

Blue Bajan and David O'Meara 9:20 Newcastle - Cracking Choice 9/1 e/w (nap) Noticed this horse straight away. Although he is a 13 race maiden, he seems to save his best for Newcastle, and his stats are 2, 3, 2, 2. His last 2nd here, he was only just beaten on the line. Now conditions are the same today as they were then except he is 1lb lower in the handicap, and carrying 1lb less in the weights. And the other difference is that today blinkers are applied for the first time. If they do their job, then it might help him gain his first victory. Salvatore Fury is a potential big danger, but he is 9lb up for his last win, and Bondesire is fancied, but he is down in trip and up 5lb in the handicap. 4:30 Yarmouth - Colincas Lad 13/2 e/w (only paying 1-2 places) - £50.63 Colincas Lad is getting on a bit now, but i am not sure if anyone has told him. He ran very well at Epsom last time out in a higher class. The drop down in class will benefot him. This is another horse who

2:00 Newcastle - Mr Matthews 4/1 I know there is a hot favourite here in Good Old Boy Lukey, but i was impressed with Mr Matthews win last time out, and he beat some nice types in Disclosure, Ixelles Diamond and Mitcd, where as GOBL's last race looks a lot weaker. Mr Matthews last run, he seemed to run quite green still, and was quite keen at the start. But did well to win, and win nicely too. As long as he get's his lead he will be tough to beat. 4:40 Warwick - Dutch Mistress 3/1 - £40 Paphos is favourite here, but he has gone up a lot since his last run and is top weight. My choice is still improving. In her 5 runs so far she has been in the top 3 in all 5. Her last race she was stepped up in class and was only beaten a short head, today she drops back down in class. She does have a bit of weight to carry, but i cannot see it being an issue as she has carried more to victory. 8:50 Hamilton - Hopes n' Dreams 5/1 This was a nice little race to look at, and

Franciscan Struggling to find some i really fancy. So i have 1 plus a couple of very short ones too 4:35 Carlisle - Franciscan 12/1 e/w Interesting horse this, i kept coming back to him. Has been out of form recently, but if you look back at his form it reads interesting. Firstly he has been racing in better company so the drop in class today should help. Also as long as there is no rain, which none is forecast then it makes me hopeful. His stats on this surface is 1, 1, 1, 1*, 7* (* higher class than today), i cannot explain the 7th place except that he was on his highest ever mark and carrying biggest weight to date, but was never on terms. But if you look back to his last win, he is now 2lb lower in the handicap than that day, and the horse he beat is racing today too, and Eltheeb is now 3lb higher than that day also they are on a more even keel weight wise. as Franciscan carried 7lb more in the weights whereas today 2lb separate them , also Eltheeb has gone on to beat 2

3:15 Brighton - Benandonner 16/1 e/w - this old timer owes no one anything, but the reason i took a look is his last win is under similar conditions as today. Carrying the same weight, same surface, same distance. The only difference is his last win last year he was rated 84, today he is rated 53. Also he has cheek pieces fitted, which might give him some spark again. Since that win, not once has he had these conditions. He did have g-f over 7f, and was picking up 2f out. So hopefully he will go well today - £25 3:30 Beverley - Dairam 1/2 - Yard in form, this horse has been 2nd 4 times, and has come up against some decent types. This race looks a bit easier, and should be able to take advantage of that and has more experience over the others. - £15 4:30 Beverley - Valentino Oyster 10/1 e/w (nap) - stats over C&D are 1, 2, 1. His last win was in similar conditions. Going and distance. He was put up 6lb by the handicapper, and since then has had 2 runs over 1m 2f. Thi

Saga Lout 2:45 Wolves - Saga Lout 7/1 e/w - Won here back in December then went on to win at Lingfield too, went up in class and didn't perform. Went back down in class but this time went right handed round Kempton. Back down to the same mark as his last win, plus the left handed track i am hoping he re-finds his form here. - £13.75 3:15 Wolves - Archie Stevens 8/11 - I would be shocked if this horse didn't win. He has been racing in higher class races on turf, but his last race on the A/W was in a Class 2 race here. This is Class 5. He has 1lb lower handicap mark than that race, and came 2nd then. So he should take this easily. - £17.22 4:45 Wolves - Peter's Friend 10/1 e/w - This boy has been beaten by some very nice horses. He came 3rd by 6L to Awake My Soul, who has won much better class races since then, and the next time out was beaten by Sofia's Number One who was on a winning spree. He just needs to re-produce those performances to go close here. - £1