The Novice Tipster

Grand National Trends – System I have looked into the trends in the last 20 years, and put them into a system.  With particular trends the system kept all 20 previous winners plus many placed horses, in fact a minimum of 1 placed horse behind the winner. Unfortunately it only offered a list of 14 horses, so you need to break them down.  If you follow my actual system i posted earlier then, Blaklion, Definitly Red and Sahir Du Rheu have come up in both. DR is my horse anyway, so i am going to go with Blaklion and Saphir Du Rheu as well. But if there are any in this list you like, well if the trends remain strong, the winner should be named here as well as a placed horse. Bishops Road Blaklion Cocktails At Dawn Definitly Red Doctor Harper Goodtoknow La Vaticane Lord Windermere Regal Encore Roi Des Francs Saphir Du Rheu Stellar Notion Tenor Nivernais Ucello Conti

Lingfield 2:00 Anastazia 14/1 2:35 Horroob 4/6* 3:10 Runaiocht 10/1 3:45 Eqitraan 2/1* 4:15 Suqoor 10/1 4:50 Moneyoryourlife 11/8 5:40 Dubai Horizon 6/5 Wolverhampton 6:20 Blue Bahia 13/2 6:50 Exquisite Ruby 11/2 7:20 Hellovaqueen 10/1 7:50 Sennockian Star 9/1 8:20 Rembrandt 11/1 8:50 Percys Princess 4/1 9:20 Compton Park 10/1

Aintree 1:45 Rating : Holywell Going : Joe Farrell Speed : Rons Dream My Selection :   Joe Farrell 14/1 2:25 Rating : La Breuil/Bordeaux Bill Going : Cultivator Speed : Captain Forez My Selection : Cultivator 20/1 3:00 Rating :   Charbel Going : Forest Bihan Speed : San Benedeto My Selection : Forest Bihan 5/1 3:40 Rating : Takingrisks Going : Knock House Speed : Value At Risk My Selection :   Value AT Risk 8/1 4:20 Rating :   Ballyoptic Going : Cole Harden Speed : Cole Harden My Selection : Cole Harden 5/1 5:15 Rating : Doctor Harper Going : More Of That Speed : More Of That My Selection : More Of That 12/1 6:15 Rating : Cousin Oscar Going : Vosne Romanee Speed : Born Survivor My Selection : Born Survivor   11/1

1st More Of That 12/1 - 70 2nd Blaklion 12/1 - 65 3rd Cause Of Causes 14/1 - 45 3rd Definitely Red 10/1 - 45 3rd Saphir Du Rheu 18/1- 45 4th Just A Par 40/1 - 40  4th Regal Encore 50/1 - 40 4th Le Mercurey 50/1 - 40 4th Vieux Lion Rogue 11/1 - 40 The Grand National is a lottery, you can do probably no worse than stick a needle in it, and do better. All the stats in the world will not make a difference if a horse doesn't jump well of a horse falls in front of him. But here are the system horses. More Of That and Blaklion have shone here with the stats, More Of That worries me, there is no doubt he will love the going and gets on well with Geraghty, He won the World Hurdle at Cheltenham a few years ago, so no doubt he stays, but just a niggling in my mind that he has never won over fences at 3 miles or above. His form has been patchy lately and his handicap mark hasn't relented. This is a drop in class though, so he is a class horse on his day. That could help him

Leicester 2:00 None 2:30 Ivors Fantasy 5/1 3:05 Gallipoli 8/1 3:40 Sufi 4/1 4:15 Buthelezi 40/1 4:50 Desert Dream 11/2 5:25 Pivotman 10/1 Kempton 5:45 Fleeting Francesca 14/1 6:15 Metronomic 9/4 6:45 Lunar Deity 12/1 7:15 Childesplay 9/4 7:45 Raffle King 12/1 8:15 Family Fortunes 13/8 8:45 Maestro Mac  4/1 9:15 Almanack 9/4

1st O O Seven 20/1 - 90 2nd Go Conquer 9/1 - 85 3rd Henryville 12/1 - 80 4th Gold Present 11/1 - 65 5th Eastlake 14/1 - 60 The top 3 in this look to have brilliant chances in this race. Eastlake who came 5th looks up against it in my opinion. Up 10lb since his win here last year, and he is 11 now, he also has a lot of P's against his name recently. However he jumps well, and that's what you need to do here. O O Seven, well he just pipped Go Conquer. He loves a flat track, in fact he is 4 wins from 4 runs at this type of track. He is 3 wins from 5 and a place on this going, he jumps so well. And Nicky Henderson has won this race 3 times in the last 4 years. So he knows how to get a horse right for this. Also 5th in the RSA, is a good run. Henderson also runs Gold Present, but that horse worries me because he has only run over fences 4 times, and i feel that compared to stable mate O O Seven, he might need more experience. But he jumps well, and that counts. And

Aintree 1:40 Rating : Geordie Des Champs Going : Bigmartre Speed : North Hill Harvey My Selection : Geordie Des Champs 14/1 2:20 Rating : Mount Mews Going : High Secret Speed : Moon Racer My Selection : Mount Mews 3/1 2:50 Rating : Whisper Going : Calett Mad Speed : Whisper My Selection : Whisper 11/4 3:25 Rating : Uxizandre Going : Fox Norton Speed : Uxizandre My Selection : Uxizandre 8/1 4:05 Rating : Eastlake Going : Thomas Brown/O O Seven Speed : Clarcam My Selection : Thomas Brown 16/1 4:40 Rating : Constantine Bay Going : Monbeg Charmer Speed : Elegant Escape My Selection : Monbeg Charmer 25/1 5:15 Rating : If The Cap Fits Going : none Speed : Clondaw Castle My Selection : If The Cap Fits 11/2

1st Theinval 13/2 - 85 2nd Gino Trail 14/1 - 65 3rd Doitforthevillage 22/1 - 50  Theinval came 3rd in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham last time out, which is great form. The flatter track will suit him much better than the undulations of Cheltenham. In 5 attempts he has won 3 and been placed once. The going and distance will be perfect and he has a massive chance. Only 3lb higher than his last win as well. I am pretty positive this horse will not be out the top 3, and a win is very much on the cards. I think i will make a bold statement here. Dandridge will not win. He nearly won in this last year, off 1lb lower. That won't stop him, what could is that he has never won with Davy Russell on board,  he has only ever won once going left handed in 10 tries. He has placed 5 times though. The biggest point though is he has never won on a flat track. in 7 attempts. Ok last year he nearly won, but he didnt. He has never won above a Class 2 race, ok he has placed in  Grade 3's b

Southwell 1:55 Caledonian Gold 11/2 2:30 none 3:00 Copper Baked 4/6 3:35 Silver Quay 9/2 4:15 Percy Thrower 9/2 4:50 Dusky Dawn 5/4 5:25 Dark Forest  11/4 Chelmsford 5:45 Coverham 5/1 6:15 Interweave 5/2 6:45 Me Too Nagasaki 8/1 7:15 Cape Peninsular 4/1 7:45 Weekender 9/4 8:15 Masterson 8/15 8:45 Lightening Charlie 4/1

1. Sam Waley-Cohen his stats are good over the National fences, and the Foxhunters tomorrow he has ridden in it 10 times, won 3 and placed 5.He rides the fences well. He rides Black Thunder around 25/1 2. Noel Fehily and Paul Nicholls have teamed up 4 times for the Betway Bowl Chase (not much of a stat) however they have won it twice with Silviniaco Conti, who has got stats of 3, 1, 1 in the race. Paul Nicholls himself has a 22% strike rate in the race and although Silviniaco Conti is getting on now, his stats are impressive. He is 3 wins from 5 at Aintree with a place. His loss  was a PU in the Grand National Last year. On Good to Soft ground he is 5 wins from 10, but only been out the places 3 times. 8/1 could be a good ew bet.

Aintree 1:45 Rating : Max Ward/Frodon Going : Top Notch Speed : Top Notch My Selection : Top Notch 5/4 2:20 Rating : Defi Du Seuil Going : Bedrock/Defi Du Seuil Speed : Defi Du Seuil My Selection : Defi Du Seuil 2/7 2:50 Rating : Silviniaco Conti Going : Tea For Two/Silviniaco Conti/Cue Card Speed : Silviniaco Conti My Selection : Silviniaco Conti 9/1 3:25 Rating : The New One Going : Buveur D’air/The New One Speed : My Tent Or Yours My Selection : My Tent Or Yours 12/1 (Beveur D’air will win, but MTOY is great ew) 4:05 Rating : On The Fringe Going : Mendip Express Speed : Darwins Fox My Selection : Darwins Fox 40/1 4:40 Rating : Ravens Tower Going : Theinval Speed : Astre De La Cour My Selection : Thinval 13/2 5:15 Rating : Irish Roe Going : none Speed : Sassy Diva My Selection : Sassy Diva 12/1