05/04/21 - 5:00 Fairyhouse - The Irish Grand National

 

1st Agusta Gold 9/1 - 60

2nd Court Maid 16/1 - 50

3rd Fitzhenry 28/1 - 45

3rd Snugsborough Benny 66/1 - 45

As you see Agusta Gold is clear here only just, 4th placed Latest Exhibition, Espanitio Bello, Run Wild Fred and Enjoy D'allen all scored 40 

Agusta Gold is extremely consistant, so consistant she seems ok on any ground. She actually won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown last year, so we know the distance today will not be an issue. Her stats at Fairyhouse are 2, 3, 1. She runs off a career high mark here which means she needs to find more, and that would be a worry however, hre last run over fences was on her season debut after 320 days off, the average handicap mark in that race was 141 and today its 143. the biggest difference was that it was over 2m 5f on heavy and taday its 3m 5f on yielding. She beat Moyhenna that day who is not only 1lb lower than that run, has a 5lb claimer on where as Agusta Gold is up 7lb, so thats a big swing in Moyhennas favour. Moyhenna came 3rd in this years National Trial. But Agusta Gold is much more reliable.

Agusta Gold will run the usual good race, and this better ground may well be more in her favour she certainly stays very well. 

Court Maid is a C&D winner which i also think counts for a lot especially over these marathon distances. That day the average rating was 136, so its a tiny bit tougher here. She beat Brace Yourself (30) by 13L that day on soft ground, and since that run and another recent run she is up 12lb in the handicap, is up 2lb so there is a 10lb difference this time. Now its difficult to say if the difference in handicap marks will turn the result as both are pretty unexposed over fences and both will not mind the better ground. Plus Court Maid won very cosily indeed so could have easily pulled out more if it was closer. 

Fitzhenry came 6th in the Kim Muir last year which is not bad form. He was also 3rd here back in 2018 over C&D. His stats at Fairyhouse are 5, 11, 2, 3. The first 2 were at 2m 4f and 2m 1f. the other were 3m and 3m 5f. So he diefinitely goes well here at longer distance. His last run was actually his best in qite a while, where he came 3rd in the Leinster National, behind Ten Ten and Scoir Mear. Scoir Mear is up 8lb since then and Ten Ten is up 4lb and Fitzhenry is up 1lb, so both Ten Ten and Fitzhenry will be much closer. Ten Ten is untested at this distance and Scoir Muir was well beaten (27.5L) by Brace Yourself and Court Maid over C&D. I would think he would struggle to reverse the form with those, where as Fitzhenry might be better over this extra distance. 

Snugsborough Benny came 4th here in the race in its last running in 2019. He was rated 145 that day and today he is also rated 145 but has a 5lb claimer this time. It was good to yielding that day so today will be ideal. He is 11 and not getting any younger. He wont mind the going and he could sneak into the minor places at a big price. 

Its a tough race but im hoping the system has the winner named above. I will stick with this as usual but i wouldnt put you off the top 2.

My Selection: Agusta Gold 9/1