08/04/22 4:05 Aintree - Topham Chase System
2nd Spiritofthegames 16/1 - 45
2nd Romain De Senam 50 - 45
3rd Ridersonthestorm 40/1 - 40
Mac Tottie won the Grand Sefton here in November, and he shot up in the handicap, but he comes here on exactly the same mark has when winning over C&D, The average rated horse that day was 127, and today its 142. He was rated 135, so actually comes into this carrying only 10st. He did come back for the Becher Chase in December and fell at The Chair which is a worry but i think that would have always been a little too far anyway and it is his only fall of his career. The ground is perfect, the distance is perfect, the track is fine. He needs to step up to beat some of the Irish horses, but he could go very well. He has also beaten Senior Citizen, Via Dolorosa among others over the fences too.
Spritofthegames i thought scored better. he has run at Aintree, but not over the National Fences. He actually came 3rd here in a Grade 3 last year in a race where the average rated horse was 142, so this race looks good. He was 144 thats day and today he is 136, also gets to carry 10st 1lb around here. Ground is fine and although he has attempted this distance 8 times and not won, he has placed 7 times. I like that he has never fell before.
Romain De Senams form is all over the place, but a couple of things point to him possibly running well. He has never been over these fences, and has a 3rd to his name over 2m 4f at Aintree in a similar grade race, the ground and trip are pretty perfect which is important. He is now with his 3rd trainer in David Pipe, i would ignore his last run in the Midlands National, he had been off the track 339 days and would have badly needed it, but my one worry about him is he can make a mistake at his first fence and that wont be good over these fences. But if Davd Pipe has got it right, and he jumps well. I dont think you can ignore him at a price.
Ridersonthestorm is another horse on his 3rd trainer, he is another who has not been over these fences but is a 1, 2 at Aintree. Both runs here have been after a break of over 200 days, he is back after 49 days off. His last run here when 2nd was off a mark of 147 and today runs off 136. The distance is fine, although i think he might want some rain which he wont get, he could run well well here if taking to the fences.
Of those who scored next i thought i would post Janika, Senior Citizen (35) Mister Coffey, Mister Whitaker (30) so you can see its quite close.
My Selection: Mac Tottie 16/1
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