14/09/16 4:10 Listowel - Kerry National - System






1st Killer Crow 8/1 - 85
2nd Ballycasey 8/1 - 80
3rd Your Busy 25/1 - 60
4th Three Kingdoms 12/1 - 55
4th Kylecrue 16/1 - 55 (Reserve)

Ballycasey has a big weight here in testing conditions. And has never won over further than 2m 6f, although has placed at 3m 1f. He has won 3 times out of  6. I am not going to lie, its a big ask for a good horse like him. I think he might gt beat by a horse carrying a lighter weight. However he still has an ew chance.

Killer Crow could be the one to beat him, he scored well, he likes the going, i think i was told he is considered a National horse, and he came 7th in the Irish National. So he obviously has stamina. he carries a nice weight as well.

Your Busy has never completed a race over fences on heavy and PU in this last year, which is a worry. But he stays all day. I think he would need firmer ground than this though.

No horse has won so far carrying more than 11st on heavy ground, Rogue Angel won this carrying 10-4 and in 2012 Faltering Fullback.

Due to the testing conditions, i zoomed my focus in to weight, and then wondered how many sires have had winners on heavy in this race. It cut me down to 3 sires, who between them have a 75% strike rate, and one of those sires has 2 runners today, which happen to be Killer Crow and First Lieutenant.

So for me there are positives for Killer Crow and i am happy to stick with him

My Selection: Killer Crow 8/1

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