05/04/25 4:00 Aintree - The Grand National System

4:00 The Grand National 

1st Vanillier 10/1 - 60

2nd Minello Indo 25/1 - 55

3rd I Am Maximus 13/2 - 50

4th Chantry House 100/1 - 45

5th Bravemansgame 50/1 - 40

 

This system has done very well for National horses in the past, however it is important to bare in mind that this is all based on stats and trends. So a horse who has won the race before is slightly favoured. So it does come as a little shock that Vanillier came top. 

Vanillier was 2nd in this race in 2023 off 147, and why im highlighting this race as that day it was good to soft that day as it will be on Saturday, he is rated 147 this time and in 2023 he carried 10st 6lb. Everything is the same as 2023, the only difference is he is 2 years older. His run last time out was much better than the 3rd, as they jockey nearly took the wrong course and dropped right back in the field. Last year it was soft ground, he carried 6lb and it was a lot harder, this year there are more things in his favour.

Minella Indo a former Gold Cup winner and 3rd in this last year carrying 3lb more. The better ground possibly will help him, he is a good sound jumper, i'd be confident if having a smooth trip around, that he will definitely get around.

I Am Maximus was a very good winner of this last year, however he has it all to do this year. Its a massive negative carrying topweight in this - no topweight has won since Red Rum for a reason. Its indredibly hard to carry that weight, that far. Is he a Red Rum? im not sure, he has shown no form in his 2 races since, and after winning i find many horses really dont achieve much again, only a couple have gone on to do anything, and one of those was Tiger Roll. Connections are sounding very positive though so that is always something to consider. We know the distance and course is fine, ground has a little question mark as he tends to prefer softer. I cant see him not getting around, its just that weight. 

So its interesting that I Am Maximus owner also has Chantry House who has scored very well here. I like this as i love Chantry House, he is such a beautiful horse, but being beautiful doesnt win you a National. Henderson has also never won a National which is a concern, the horse i thought might do it, is not running. Tiny negative is he is 11 now, its not too bad though, there have been 4 11 year olds to win since 1997. I am not convinced Aintree is the best track for him previously, but this step up in trip on this flat track could help him. He has a great weight to carry. 

Bravemansgame was once considered a Gold Cup Horse and came 2nd in it, in 2023. I should think Aintree will suit him much better than Cheltenham, and the ground is perfect. He is a really good jumper and with luck he should get round. 

This is so hard, i hope the winner is in those named above. I will stick with my system and go with Vanillier, but also a small ew on Chantry House

My Selection: Vanillier 10/1