Grand National Trends

What makes a Grand National Winner? For me the horse has to jump well, have the stamina and above all i do like a horse to have had experience of the fences.

So i went through the runners up to number 46. And i marked out several pointers.

·         Horses who have won over 3 miles (11 out of the last 11 have all won over 3 miles before the National)

·         Horses who have won over hurdles this season (5 of the last 6 winners, all had a pipe opener over hurdles)

·         Stamina, i want see who has proven stamina, so looked at horses who have completed 3m 6f+

·         Also course experience is interesting, especially with that very long run in. So i have looked to see if a horse has won a race at Aintree, either hurdles or the Mildmay course or even over the National Fences.

·         For me experience over these fences is only positive, as the can be very daunting.

·         Because the fences are so big, you need a horse who jumps well, saying that Aurora’s Encore’s record was Fallen 5 times 1 UR, and 1 REF. But on the whole horses who jump go well.

For me these are a good combination and here is the list of the horses who did well in order of how well they did

Shakalakboomboom

Across The Bay

Saint Are

Triolo D’Alene

Wayward Prince

Teaforthree

Tidal Bay

Balthazar King

Prince De Beauchene

Monbeg Dude

Burton Point

Chance Du Roy

The Package

One In A Milan

Swing Bill

Soll

Night In Milan

Mr Moonshine

However Age seems quite important and horses age 7-8 and 12+ have a very bad record in the race, so that leaves us with

1^st Shakalakboomboom 33/1

2^nd Across The Bay 40/1

3^rd Wayward Prince 50/1

3^rd Teaforthree 8/1

Balthazar King

Prince De Beauchene

Monbeg Dude

Burton Point

Chance Du Roy

The Package

One In A Milan

Mr Moonshine

The winner you have to assume is from this list, although i have highlighted the main scorers. The top 4 horses look very nice indeed. However it’s still a long list and i have split the list in 2. The first list is horses who have had experience over the fences and the 2^nd is the horses who are racing in the National for the first time as 15 of the last 20 winners have won on their very first time. I am posting them in order.

Experience over fences	Were They Came	First Time over fences
Shakalakaboomboom	7th Topham & 9th GN	Wayward Prince
Across The Bay	8th Bechers & 14th GN	Prince De Beauchene
Teaforthree	3rd GN	Monbeg Dude
Balthazar King	15th GN	Burton Port
Chance Du Roy	1st Bechers, 2nd Topham and Fell Grand Sefton	One In A Milan
The Package	UR GN	Night In Milan
Mr Moonshine	3rd Bechers & PU GN

So if you would want to Shortlist the horses even further the Shakalakaboomboom and Wayward Prince could be the 2 to focus on. However for me i am sticking to my list after the ages had been sorted and my final list will be

1^st Shakalakboomboom 33/1

2^nd Across The Bay 40/1

3^rd Wayward Prince 50/1

3^rd Teaforthree 8/1