17/02/18 3:15 Haydock - System
2nd Mysteree 10/1 - 80
3rd The Dutchman 9/2 65
4th Silsol 12/1 -55
No horse rated above 149 has won on heavy ground, which is a bit of a negative for Blaklion (161), he tried in this last year off 152 when he came 2nd, although he and the winner were well clear of the 3rd horse. Blaklion is 9lb higher than that year, so it makes life hard for him. Only one horse in 10 has ever won off top weight (Silver By Nature). It does worry me that last year he carried top weight on Good-Soft and this year its heavy. Thats a big ask, even for a class horse like Blaklion. What we do know though is that he stays forever and jumps well. His stats on heavy are 2, 1, 1. He is the one they have to beat.
Mysteree's stats on heavy are 3, 1, 1, PU. His PU was after 294 days off the track and although he was 2/2 after a break of over 200 days., this was a Grade 3, so it was a big ask. He has to find a bit to beat Blaklion, but he is carrying 25lb less than Blaklion on this going is a big help. And he stays well, he is a C&D winner on heavy here. he could go well.
Based on The Dutchmans last win then he will give Blaklion plenty to think about. He is 2, 1, 2, 1 on Heavy ground. and he wont have to improve much more to have a chance.
Silsol came back from nearly a year off and clearly needed the run. His last run in the Welsh national was much more improved and if he has come on from that, he could also go well.
I have seen views of most connections of this race, all rate their chances here. Blaklion on form is the one they have to beat, the worry is the weight he has to carry, but he will go very well.
My Selection: Blaklion 9/4
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