02/06/17 The Oaks 4:30 Epsom - System
2nd Enable 6/1 - 45
2nd Sobetsu 9/1 - 45
3rd Coronet 8/1 - 40
No surprise Rhododendron was top here, best speed stats, by Galileo, trainer and jockey are in form and she has every chance, however the trip for me is possibly a worry. Obviously Galileo offspring normally have no issue at 1m4f. But she has 3 full brothers and sisters. Flying The Flag was pacemaker in the 2013 Derby, so i guess that doesn't count. But the next time he ran at that distance was a Listed race and he nearly came last. Her brother Hanover Street did win a hurdle race over 2 miles, but failed at 1m 4f. And Sister Just Gorgeous did win at 1m 4f but a very poor maiden, and then failed miserably at 1m 4f the next 2 attempts, with a 12th out of 12 in a Listed. Saying all of that though, she has the class, she is already a Group 1 winner, and the one they all need to beat.
Enable is a horse who will stay and has won the Cheshire Oaks. Although since 1998, only one horse has won both, and that was Light Shift. But you look at Light Shift and Enables 2 races before the Oaks, and the both went the Newbury/Chester route. In fact they are the only ones to run and win a 1 mile maiden, go to Newbury for a 1m 2f race, then to Chester to win the Cheshire Oaks. Maybe thats a winning forumla?
Sobetsu won her maiden well, but then only managed 5th in the Fillies Mile last year, but her scope was dirty, she made up for that by winning in France, and this step up should suit, she could be even better now, and capable of an upset.
Rhododendron is too short to back, Enable and Sobetsu are her dangers, and although my system says she is the one to beat, it has it close, and the other 2 are more appealing on price. I wouldn't put you off any of the 3. but i will stick with my system, and hope Rhododendron see's out the trip
My Selection: Rhododendron 5/6
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