02/06/17 Coronation Cup 3:10 Epsom - System

1st Journey 9/2 - 85
2nd Air Pilot 33/1 - 75
3rd Hawkbill 10/1 - 60
4th US Army Ranger 14/1 - 55
5th Highland Reel 7/4 - 50

Journey has been in the form of her life since stepping up to 1m 4f, with stats of 1, 2, 1, 1, 1. The 2nd was hardly a disgrace when beaten by Simple Verse in the Champion Fillies & Mares Group 1, when beaten less than a length in less than ideal conditions. If you look at the going and zoom in on todays good conditions, then she is 1, 1, 1. Her sire Dubawi has a 26% strike rate with offspring at Epsom, so you would like to think the course's quirks will not be an issue.

Journey has a 3lb mare's allowance and there is 3lb between her and Highland Reel in the handicap mark.

One interesting fact is, that both Journey and Highland Reel have raced over 1m 4f at Ascot last season in Group 1 races. Journey's was much quicker than Highland Reel, and Highland Reel had the advantage of quicker ground. You look back at previous runs at Ascot where they both came second on good-soft, and Journey once again clocked a quicker time ( Journey as a 3 year old at the time of those speeds and HR was 4yo). Epsom is not an easy course and Highland Reel is by Galileo so you know he will not mind the course, he has a 15% strike rate at the course with his offspring.

Air Pilot needs to step up what he has done already, but he might find some improvement up in distance. Still not convinved he would trouble the leading contenders here, but he has placed here over 1m 2f and if some do not take to Epsom he could take advantage.

Hawkbill comes here from a stable in red hot form. He has never run on good ground before, and my concern would be that he would prefer it a bit softer, the rain is coming, but i am not convinced it will be enough to make a difference to the going. I can see place claims for him.

Highland Reel boasts form of 1, 2, 1 over 1m 4f, the speed i talk about is a concern, plus he hasn't won after a break yet, he hasn't won left handed in 4 attempts - however it's not the end of the world as he has never gone left handed at this distance before, and he has never won in June, in fact all 4 of his wins are in July where he is 4/4. The positives are the stable are in form. In my personal opinion, Highland Reel is very short for a horse with a bit against him. He is a class horse though, but if there is a weakness there will be another one to exploit that.

US Army Ranger came 2nd in the Derby last year, and he was quite immature then, but he has the course experience. However unfortunately his 4yo form hasn't been inspiring in his 2 runs, and i think he will be forced to make the running. If by fluke he doesn't then he could go well here.

My Selection: Journey 9/2