Top Tips 29/6/13
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| Derby rivals meet again for the Irish Derby |
SRD beat consistent Memory Styx over C&D last time out, overcoming a wide stall draw. This time he is in the middle. He has to give weight away all round apart from 1, but he is an improver and should run a big race.
2:45 Chester - Lady Ibrox 8/1 e/w (nap)
She seems to like it here. Been racing in higher classes so this is a step down today. Stats on this track are 2, 1*, 1* (*higher class). She is now down to the same mark as her first victory at the course in a higher class. I think she might prefer a little rain, but the ground is ok. Dale Swift has ridden her in all 3 of her career wins, he takes the reins again. She has very strong e/w claims and a good stall draw.
4:50 Newcastle - Whispering Warrior 5/2
Jim Crowley has ridden him 3 times and won on him 3 times. The track will suit and although not raced on Good-Soft yet, he has raced and won on the All weather, so suggests that this ground will not trouble him.
3:50 Newcastle - Trail Blaze 11/1 e/w
Stats over 7f looks like this 5, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1, and from those stats the one's where he has won on the same ground are 5, 2, 1, 3.
His return to 7f will suit him better, although 1m he did well, this drop back in trip could bring out more improvement at this level. Only beaten 2L over 1m last time out. Has fantastic e/w chance
3:15 Newcastle - Northumberland Plate - Arch Villain 12/1 e/w
System Results
1st Arch Villain 12/1 - 60
1st Montaser 10/1 - 60
2nd Noble Alan 25/1 - 50
3rd Sun Central 12/1 - 40
3rd Il De Re 9/1 - 40
4th Handsome Man 10/1 - 25
5th Tominater 8/1 - 20
6th Ardlui 8/1 - 15
6th Mubaraza 8/1 - 15
6th Good Morning Star 40/1 - 15
6:30 Curragh - Libertarian 4/1
This horse could of won the Derby in my opinion. Coming round Tattenham Corner, he had traffic issues and was bumped around, when he finally got out, he flew and got beaten by a horse that had no such issues. The other horse in the same position was Mars, and Mars has gone on to be 3rd in a G1, even though he was the 2nd string in the race. Ruler Of The World could be good, and it's silly to discount him, and although my views on Joseph O'Brien as well documented, the fact is, at Royal Ascot he rode several odds on horses, and lost. He tended to win on the longer odds horses. Now it could be that Ruler Of The World is good enough to get them both home in front, but i think the track will suit Libertarian a lot better, and there will not be the traffic problems.
Sugar boy interests me a lot and i like him e/w. I also think Galileo Rock could be dangerous too. But i will stick with Liberterian
System picks
1st Ruler Of The World 11/10 - 75
2nd Libertarian 4/1 - 45
3rd Trading Leather 11/2 - 35
4th Cap O'Rushes 100/1 - 15
2:20 Newmarket - Fig Roll 3/1 - System horse
4:05 Newmarket - Awake My Soul 5/1 - on my list of Horses To Watch
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