06/06/25 4:00 Epsom - The Oaks System

 

1st Minnie Hauk 7/2 - 50

2nd Giselle 15/2 - 45

3rd Whirl 6/1 - 30

 

These 3yo races can be difficult to do systems on, but they can still be a good enough guide to help.  

The rain that has fallen, so far, seems to have made little difference to the going, however you will need to keep an eye on this. If it goes soft, then it will boost the chances of Minnie Hauk and Whirl.

Desert Flower the winner of the 1000gns steps up half a mile in distance to try and do something not often seen, in fact Love was the last filly to achieve this in 2020, then before that it was a 20-year gap. Her immediate breeding suggests this will be a littel bit of a stretch for her,  she does have some stamina on the dam's side, plus she has the dreaded stall 1!! Only 5% of winners have come from that stall. It can be done, as Adayar did it a few years ago, but it won't be easy.  

Minnie Hauk topped this and showed up well, she will not mind any rain and good is perfectly fine for her. She comes here via the Cheshire Oaks, which is not particularly a race i like as a trial, it has only produced 3 winners in the last 20 odd years, and one of those was Enable. Aidan's last winner was in 2018 who did this route. He definitely uses better trials than this for his runners, saying all that, the way Minnie Hauk won this trial was quite impressive. She raced wide at the start and won nicely. I liked her attitude, she is a big girl and that run was badly needed, i expect you will see her spot on for today, and being a big girl she looks really strong i like that, although Epsom is not great for bigger horses, although she coped with the tightness of Chester. 

Giselle actually has a big negative for me and has come via the Linfield Oaks Trial, it's a race I like even less than the Cheshire Oaks. Aidan has never had a winner from this Trial, and yes records can be broken, but for me, it's a worry. She was very impressive in winning, I just do not think she beat anything. The 2nd horse couldn't even win a Class 4 next time out and actually came 7th of 10. I am not convinced she will want any more rain though, and Whirl has beaten her on soft. 

Whirl came via the Musidora which is a better Trial in my opinion. She won cosily and was very professional. If it rains, she would go well. She has a great chance here and i'd definitely have her closer to Minnie Hauk. 

Of those not mentioned, i thought Go Go Boots was better than her performance behind Whirl, she seemed a little immature in her attitude.  Her dam stayed 1m 4f so this step up might help her. I think 50/1 is a little steep. Qilin Queen could be stretched at this distance. Elwateen used the Guineas as a prep race and was outstanding, the step-up in trip will suit and although not much to go on, i wouldn't dismiss her chances and at 10/1 she would be a nice ew play. 

I will stick with my system here as usual. Minnie Hauk has a lot of ticks. Elwateen at a bigger price might be a nice ew for those looking at that. 

My Selection: Minnie Hauk 7/2