02/06/24 4:30 Epsom - Betfred Derby System
2nd City Of Troy 7/2 - 45
3rd Deira Mile 20/1 - 30
3rd Voyage 20/1 - 30
Lots of talk about the stalls and as when every system for the Derby or Oaks and i am big on this, because of the nature of Epsom the lower stalls unless the horse front runs can get trapped on the rail and nowhere to go, unless they have a stablemate able to make room or if the horse is very lucky. This is a much closer race than first thought
City Of Troy obviously didnt do very well in the Guineas but he is bred for further. Ground and trip should be fine. There is also a question mark to if Justify's offspring do well at 3. Time will tell but he is favourite, his yard think he is the best, despite Los Angeles apparently training better than him this week.
Ambiente Friendly stepped up and won the Derby Trial at Lingifeld and he won very cosily, there is a question mark to what he beat as Illinois didnt even make the O'Brien cut here, he stays, the ground will be fine and he has to be considered a strong contender here.
Deira Mile was a close 4th in the Futurity as a 2yo and came out and won his Novice as a 3yo debutant, its sketchy as to what he beat in that, gut says not much, so he really needs to step up here, however this trip he is bred to get so he could be a nice ew
Voyage has run one race so this will be extremely tough, he beat Mr Hampstead very easily and the prices reflect that here. He needs to step up but 1m4 is probably his optimal distance and you just dont know what you will get here. Its rare a once raced horse can win a Derby but its not impossible.
Of the rest Ancient Wisdom and Los Angeles cannot be ruled out. But my system just edges it with Ambiente Friendly, so ill stick with him. I dont think this Derby has much depth though and with City Of Troys stall, i am happy to stick with Ambiente Friendly
My Selection: Ambiente Friendly 6/1
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