07/01/23 2:50 Plumpton - Sussex National
2nd Gold Clermont 7/1 - 55
3rd Foxboro 7/1 - 50
3rd Special Acceptance 12/1 - 50
Tommie Beau was the clear winner of this system, he scored well in everything, the big worry is his weight. only one horse has carried 11st 11lb on soft to win this so him carrying 12st 1lb is a massive ask. He wont he Durham National by a head but is 8lb higher now, this is exactly the same standard of race. He won the Southern National too on heavy carrying 12st. He loves the mud, he stays very well. He has a massive chance, however he is on a career high mark.
Gold Clermont won on heavy last time out over further, and beat Eceparti by a massive 14L, there is a 6lb swing in the weights for Eceparti, but Gold Clermonts jockey claims 3lb. She loves the mud and the distances she could go well. My only concern is these stayers tend to beneift from a nice time between races. She only ran 19 days ago.
Foxboro is another who won last time out over further and on soft ground. Similar race to today and won by a massive 20L. Up 6lb for that run, but first time over this distance and clearly relished it, so might be more to come. Cannot rule him out.
Special Acceptance needs to step up but carrys bottom weight and loves Plumpton, and the ground should not be an issue. Its a big ask, but his light weight might help him
I am concerned about Tommie Beaus weight but thats it, he will be my selection, but i would not put you off Gold Clermont and Foxboro.
My Selection: Tommie Beau 8/1
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