22/04/23 3:35 Ayr - The Scottish National System

 

1st Threeunderthrufive 20/1 - 50

2nd Kittys Light 9/2 - 45

2nd Dusart 14/1 - 45

3rd Monbeg Genius 4/1 - 40

3rd Mighty Thunder 20/1 - 40

Unlike the National last weekend, this race is a lot closer, and not much seperates them. 

Threeunderthrufive was a surprise. The positives are that the drier it gets the happy he will be, although unbeaten right handed, he still goes very well left. He will love the flat nature of the track as well. He is a twice Grade 2 winner over fences and thats why he has a hefty 11st 7lb to carry. There is no trend to suggest it cant be done, unlike the Grand National where is nearly impossible to carry over 11st 9lb and win. The only question mark is, will he stay? Paul Nicholls has won this a few times, most recently with Vincente who on his 2nd time won with 11st 10lb,  Threeunderthrufive has a very similar profile, including coming via Cheltenham. If he stays he has a big claim. 

Kittys Light defintely stays after winning the Eider last time out, the ground will suit, the track should be ok, and Kittys Light will just stay. Up 8lb for winning the Eider, and this is probably a little more competitive, but with Dusart in, he carries just 11st, and in the Eider it was 11st 4lb. He has big claims, plus his trainer won this race last year with Win My Wings.

Dusart has to shoulder 12st here, which i dont actually think any horse has won carrying. Cheekpieces added to eek out more improvement. He is a classy horse like his half brother Simonsig, but where as Simonsig was a 2 miler, Dusart definitely stays 3m. The step up to 4 is a risk, but certainly one they should try. He is still very unexposed as well. He defeintely would prefer it to dry out but will also be happy with a tiny bit of cut. He could go well, once again the question mark is the weight and distance, if he stays he has place claims, i just worry the weight might hinder him.

Monbeg Genius is currecntly just holding favourtism, and he is certainly an unexposed horse over fences with just 5 runs under his belt, but this is the same with the above runners, and thats what is interesting, a lot of the Nationals and long distances races involve veterans, who have many miles on the clock over fences, here 8 and under is considered good, even horses with just one run over fences have done well. So thats a positive. He is another who has never gone this far but he seems to stay well. He has a good weight. Ground should be fine and he beat home Threeunderthrufive at Cheltenham. His stats going left are 7 runs 5 wins and a place! so he could go very well here.

Mighty Thunder won this in 2021 with a handicap mark of 144, he comes here today off 128, 16lb lower than his win. He just hasnt been the same horse since. We know he stays, we know he can win here and the ground will be fine. If back to his old self he could very well win this. He actually ran his best race since his win here, last time out. 5th and beaten 17.5L. I wouldnt put anyone off him, his stable are obviously on a massive high at the moment. 

My Selection: Threeunderthrufive 20/1