15/04/23 5:15 Aintree - The Grand National System
2nd Noble Yeats 15/2 - 50
3rd Gaillard Du Mesnil 12/1 - 45
3rd Delta Work 8/1 - 45
3rd Sam Brown 80/1 - 45
I would like to add i completely believe in my system and i havent seen a horse clear in it since Tiger Rolls 2nd attempt.
I just have not considered Corach Rambler and he is favourite. Probably because he is favourite, i want value because its such a lottery and all this bar one is disappointly short. Here is why Corach Rambler came top. Firstly racing weight, and i will repeat myself several times here. No horse in the last 25 years has won carrying more that 11st 9lb, and this horse carries 10st 5lb. He stays well, he seems to love Cheltenham but has won at Aintree over 3m 1f, but has not faced the Aintree fences yet. This is no included in the stats but he i beleive is suppoed to go up 10lb in the handicap, so essentially he comes here 10lb well in, Noble Yeats was 11lb well in last year. His stats going left handed are 1, 1, 1, 4, 1, 4, 1. The ground will suit and if he takes to the fences there is absolutely no reason why he cannot go very well. I should never ignore a horse! Lets hope he drifts.
Noble Yeats as i said was 11lb well in last year.. Was nice to see Sam Waley-Cohen win before he reitred, however he did what he has done on many big rides and he hits the horse so much with the whip. He got a big ban, which made no difference as he was reitring, but under todays rules he would have had the book thrown at him, and rightly so. This time Sean Bowen gets the ride, and its sad because Noble Yeats has to carry a massive 11st 11lb. Saying all that Sean Bowen is a great jockey and i think if they can get into a good rhythm and stay out of trouble then i think he could place. I dont think he can win carrying this weight.
Gaillard Du Mesnil has NEVER been out the top 3, and he won the National Hunt Novice Chase at Cheltenham in March. My worry is he put everything into that race, and i worry about the 'Cheltenham Bounce' as Willie calls its. He also clocked a 3rd in the Irish National, so we know he stays, we know he jumps well. He carries 11st. Normally i would say he would want more rain but at this distance good to soft is probably perfect. He ticks a lot of boxes. He loves a flat track and is better left handed. If he is ok after his Cheltenham efforts then you really cannot ignore him.
Delta Work, is another Cheltenham horse, he did it last year, he won the Cross Country and really ground it out with Tiger Roll, then came 3rd here. I admit being a big fan of him, i think he is such a beautiful horse and such a 'chaser type'. He actually carries less here than last year, and this year he had a proper dingdong with Galvin, and poor Galvin carries 11st 11lb.He comes here carrying less than last year. He has big claims
Sam Brown was an odd one, i have him down as wanting heavy ground, he won here last year (not over the national fences) on good to soft. He pulled up over 3m 4f at Haydock on Heavy ground but came a close 2nd over 3m 2f on soft ground. I just wonder at this distance on good to soft, he could go ok. He could surprise a few here.
Any Second Now and Galvin carry big weights and for me thats a big negative. A shame as it would be nice to see both in the top 4. And there isnt a reason why they cannot, but with those weights they would have to be very special to do that. Any Second Now is coming to the end of his career now and Galvin, its a shame because if he was 11lb lower, i would really fancy his chances, and it would be great to see Davy go out on a high.
The rest of the runners all scored very close, 6 horses scored 40, Born By The Sea, Minella Trump, Cloudy Glen, Hill Sixteen, Francky Du Berlais, and Evas Oskar. 6 horses scored 35 too and it just goes to show you how close it is this year. Saying all that. The National is all about endurance, good jumping and a hell of a lot of luck, anything can happen. But as long as all horses come back safe and sound i dont care
My Selection: Corach Rambler 7/1 (small ew on Delta Work 8/1)
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