14/04/23 4:05 Aintree - Topham Chase System

 

1st Al Dancer 10/1 - 70

2nd Equus Dancer 16/1 - 40

2nd Batcio 16/1 - 40

3rd Top Ville Ben 33/1 - 35

3rd Fantastikas 33/1 - 35

 

One clear leader her in Al Dancer. My system got it right with Mac Tottie last year, so hopefully its right again. He actually won the Grand Seftan last time out, and is up 5lb for that win. He hasnt run since but this is why, his stats when running after a break of over 100 days are 1, 1, 1, 1, 15, 1. The 15th was a Grade 3, all the wins have come in handicaps. He has won rated 151, so 149 is not too bad. Going is perfect and he doesnt mind the track. He could run a massive race.

Equus Dancer has not run here before, but he is 3/3 on a flat track like Aintree, and left handed is fine too. Ground is perfect as well, and so is trip. He is back down in trip from the 3 miles at Sandown where he came near the back, but he probably doesnt stay that far, so the drop down is fine. He does need to improve, but its not out the question as he is lightly raced for a 9 year old.

Batcio was 2nd in this last year and is onyl 3lb higher. He was off nearly a year and came back and didnt run great with unseating the jockey. However that would have helped his fitness, although it was only 24 days ago so you have to worry about the bounce factor. Ground is perfect and we know the track and trip is fine. Just the concern of the bounce factor and if he is back to the same fitness as this time last year. 

I love Top Ville Ben, he is such a wonderful horse for connections. He Pulled up in the National last year and fell in the Bechers before that. That would be a concern but the National he jumped well, it was possibly too far, and pulled up 3 out after being tailed off. The drop back to 2m 5f might be a little on the short side, but he tries so hard. The ground will be fine, i wouldnt rule him out. 

Fantastikas was well beaten in the Becher in December but i do think this step back in trip could work. The ground is perfect, and i think he could have place claims

My Selection: Al Dancer 10/1


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