14/01/23 3:00 Warwick - Classic Cup System

 

1st Threeunderthrufive 7/1 - 70

2nd Guetapan Collonges 5/1 - 60

2nd Lord Mesnil 6/1 - 60

3rd Wouldubewell 16/1 - 55

 

I was really hoping the system would find a bigger priced horse here. Its very close though so once again i would suggest the ones named would all have good claims. Grump Charley, Nestor Park & Commodore have all scored 45 and its close between the reamaining as well.

Threeunderthrufive just nips this. But before i go into him i have one big concern. His weight. No horse has carried 12st to victory in this race. Highest weight carried is 11st 7lb. So this will be incredibly tough. He will have to be very tough to win this. He hasnt run on heavy either or over this distance. So i guess you are wondering how an earth he came top here, and i admit so do i. However, he won a Grade 2 Novice chase here last January over 3m. He has the class, he is a stayer. The average rating in this race is 138, and he comes in at 151. Can he class get him through? 

Guetapan Collonges looked very good here last time out, and won on season debut over 3m 2f. The 4th has since come out and won over 3m 6f and the 3rd has won also over 3m. But the average rated horse in that race was 118 and he has to find more at this distance. He carries a great weight of 10st 3lb but that shows just what kind of task he has. Heavy ground wont be an issue in fact he won over 2m6f by 14L, If he can continue to improve at this distance he could run a big race. 

Lord Mesnil like Threeunderthrufive has to carry some weight, although only 11st 9lb. but he is a proven stayer, can cope with heavy ground and has won the National Trial on soft. His season return, he ran a great race on heavy to come 2nd and the winner has gon on to win the Coral Gold Cup onver 3m 2 and a half furlongs. Lots of ticks in his boxes, its just the one negative of the weight.

Wouldubewell runs for the Owners Group. I personally thought she ran a great race in the Welsh National, she was beaten nearly 50L but she did very well weakening at the end. She carries only 10st 7lb and she stays, plus she has shown to like the ground. Its just if the combination of distance and ground will be too much. She will certainly try her best.

So this is really difficult because I think Threeunderthrufive has just too much weight, but i will stick with my system. I think Guetapan Collonges has to step up but can and Lord Du Mesnil has big claims but the weight is a worry too. I wouldnt put you off a bet on any of the 3 with Wouldubewell 13/1 for 6 places! 

One horse i will mention - Volcano 40. he has run at Warwick 4 times and won 4 times including over 3m 6f. He has to step up on his runs, and a possible question mark on heavy over this distance. But you cannot ignore his liking for the track. 

My Selection: Threeunderthrufive 7/1