30/04/22 3:40 Newmarket - 2000 Guineas System

 

1st Native Trail 11/10 - 105

1st Coroebus 11/2 - 105

2nd Luxembourg 5/1 - 85

3rd Perfect Power 12/1 - 70

As you can see this is VERY close, and i cannot split the top 2 at all. Native Trail is a C&D winner so we know its not going to be an issue, and i love a horse with course experience as that dip can unbalance horses and we know for sure he can deal with it as he is 3/3 at Newmarket and 2/2 on this course. Im not sure if the form of his season debut here has worked out because the 3rd placed horse got well beaten today in a Listed race, but he can only beat whats put in front of him and he did so easily. The main thing is that the going and track suit and thats a big plus here. 

Coroebus has only ever run at this track and is 1, 2, 1 here. The 2nd was in the Royal Lodge where this horse showed tremendous acceleration which took him clear of the field and i wonder if he just idled in front. Not taking anything from the winner but i dont think when William pressed to 'Go' button at 2f out that they would be so far ahead by the 1f . The ground will suit his dam was the winner of the Oh So Sharp Stakes, so this distance will be perfect and i think he has an exceptional chance. My only question is, why hasnt he had a run and Native Trail has? I read a piece recently i think it was William Buick, who said this horse had everything and was special and had everything a 2000gns winner would need, so the fact he has gone to Native Trail instead. 

Luxembourg is my Derby ante post horse, but looking at his siblings they have excelled at 1m to 1m 4f so he could very likely do the double here. He was so impressive at the Curragh and the way he won at Doncaster on soft made me think of the Arc. He is another horse who has impressive acceleration and that will help him here. He hasnt been to Newmarket before so we need to see how he copes with the dip, but i think he could go well. I doubt he will be far away and if he is beaten, then there is always the Derby. 

Christophe Soumillon this Perfect Power is special and the way he won at Newbury, you would have to agree. He won the Middle Park last year and there have been several Group winners out of that race. He doesnt do anything flashy like the others here but he gets the job done. He has claims

I really really liked Coroebus for a long time and he has been my choice in this, however the reason Native Trail is at the head of the market is because he has had a run and although Corebus and Luxembourg haven't, im sure they are very fit. For this reason only i will choose Native Trail here, but i would not put you off ew on Coroebus or Luxembourg. In fact maybe a fc or rfc or even t/c

Whatever happens, i dont think i have been excited about the 2000gns since Night Of Thunder won. 

My Selection: Native Trail 11/10 (ew on Coroebus or Luxembourg)