09/04/22 5:15 Aintree - The 2022 Grand National System

 

1st Any Second Now 9/1 - 70

2nd Delta Work 8/1 - 65

3rd Burrows Saint 20/1 - 60

3rd Santini 40/1 - 60

4th Mount Ida 33/1 - 55

5th Top Ville Ben 50/1 - 50

5th Cloth Cap 25/1 - 50

5th Good Boy Bobby 33/1 - 50

5th Minella Times 9/1 - 50

As you can see it is very close, i actaully wasnt sure i would get a clear winner here, but we do

Any Second Now was 3rd in this last year, so we know he can go well over C&D, what worries me slightly is that he carried 10st 9lb last year and this year he has to carry nearly a stone more at 11st 8lb, now horse in the last 23 years has carried more than 11st 9lb. So it can be achievable, but that weight worries me. He won the Bobbyjo Chase last time out, its not a race thats produced any winners, maybe a few placed efforts. The ground is perfect for him and we know he can get around the track. He wasnt an obvious choice for me. He was also badly hampared in last years race and still came 3rd so there could be something in that.

Delta Work is coming the same route as the mighy Tiger Roll, he carries more than Tiger Roll did,but as we have seen has is a very big horse. He still has to carry 11st 9lb around here and thats a massive ask.  He was stepped up in trip at Cheltenham on heavy ground and he and Tiger Roll stormed up that Cheltenham hill in very bad conditions, 21L clear of the next horse home. That shows this horse can stay and stay well. As long as he came out of that race well he could go well here. Once again its just the weight, but it can be and has been done with 11st 9lb, the only other horse to do this was the mighty Many Clouds. He has never been to Aintree before but has run very well at flat tracks and he jumps well.

Burrows Saints is like Any Second Now, in that he was 4th in this last year and comes here carrying 6lb more, so not as hefty a rise as Any Second Now, i actually am not sure he could change that around as was beaten 19L by Any Second Now and i think Any Second Now stayed better than Burrows Saint. However saying that, looking at his form, most of his better runs come on the better ground and its drying all the time, so that will be in his favour. It just worries me that he weakened quite quickly on the run in like most do and this extra weight will not help. Bristol De Mai in the race last year did help a lot of these carry less weight, this year they dont have that.

Santini is the best of the British here, at his peak he was 2nd in a Gold Cup however he is 10 now and although he is not at the peak he still managed to come 2nd in the Cotsworld this ear to a very highly regarded Chantry House, one thing i know about him is how he is seen and that is 'slow and steady' this horse can stay all day, and i am really glad he scored well here. He has jumped very well his whole career except maybe one race and that was a Gold Cup. He will love the ground, and yes its the furthest he has ever been but thetrack will help, and he loves going left handed. I like him, plus he carries 11st 2lb. 

Mount Ida disappointed me at Cheltenham in March, but it might be that she just needs further. She won the Kim Muir last year but she has been kept around 2 and a half miles ever since, that was the only time she went up to 3 miles and over in the Kim Muir and she beat some really good stayers there, so yes its her first time at such an extreme distance, but this could be what she needs. She is a good jumper and if the headgear works she could be very interesting. She wont mind the ground either, especially if it dries more. 

Some more Bristish horses, it was looking like another total Irish Domination!! Top Ville Ben is a horse i have a soft spot for as he is a little terrier. He fights and fights and sticks his neck out. Most of his form is on soft and heavy but he has won on Good-Soft before and i think to get this distance it helps some if the ground is a little drier. He certainly stays quite well, it is unknown if he can stay this far. My only little concern is he has fallen twice in his career and one was over this course in the Bechers. He is a horse who likes to lead or be up on the pace, and in this race that helps because you stay out of trouble more. He has a nice weight, if you follow him you know you will get a good run for your money, and its nice to see the smaller yards do well in races like this.

Cloth Cap was favourite for this last year and pulled up, which was a shame for his owner, and would be bittersweet if he won this year now his owner has passed away. He carries 5lb more this year but does wear a tongue tie for the first time. I dont think you can write him off, especially if that tongue tie works, he jumped well last year just got very tired. My only worry is he refused to jump a fence at Ascot. Ground is fine, although i suspect he needs it to try out more. He has stayed 4m well in the past so really it is all down to this tongue tie. 

Good Boy Bobby has never been this far, but will like the ground, has a very good weight and he can jump very well. 9 of his 10 wins have come left handed, although he has never been to Aintree, he wont mind the flat track, and he is a little suprise here, however the National is full of surprises. Nothing to say he cannot go well if getting the trip. He is another prominant runner so he should stay out of trouble.

Last but not least, last years winning duo, Minella Times and Rachel Blackmore, i am not sure there will be a dry eye in the place if they win again. We know ground, distance if fine . His form coming into it has not been good which is a worry. Plus he carried 10st 3lb last year and this year its 11st 10lb and stats say that no horse for 23 years has won carrying that weight. Its a massive ask, and also not many horses come back the next year after winning and run well again, apart from the obvious Tiger Roll. So if they can do it then it will be such a incredible achievement, and Henry De Bromhead is such a wonderful trainer too, if anyone can it he and Rachel.

Just a rundown of some other scorers, 45 - Lostintranslation, Run Wild Fred, Mighty Thunder. 40 - Two For Gold,  Kildisart, Easysland, Dingo Dollar, Snow Leopardess, Deise Alba, Death Duty & Eclair Surf. This shows you just how tight this is. 

I am going to stick with my system here, however any of the named above all have claims of some kind. Its such a tight race that nothing really stands out. Good Luck with whoever you back and i hope this gives you the winner

My Selections: Any Second Now 9/1, Delta Work 8/1 & Santini 40/1