13/02/22 2:40 Punchestown - System
2nd The Big Dog 9/2 - 65
3rd Stone And Roses 15/2 - 55
4th Torygraph 11/2 - 45
Hopefully the winner is above! The Big Dog won this last year off a mark of 136, and this year he is 8lb higher. He also carried 10st 11lb that day and today its 11st 10lb. His form at Punchestown is 2, 3, UR, 3, 1. He has only won 3 times in his career but twice on soft so the ground will not be an issue. We know he stays too. So he has every chance, but is carrying a bigger weight than last year for has to find more, can he? I dont think he will be far away at all, although has to go better thn when running poorly in the Welsh National.
Death Dury just pipped it, track should suit, he has won twice here, once over hurdles and once in a Novice Chaseover 2m 2f it was a Grade 3 andhewon cosily, so track shouldnt be an issue. His stats on soft are 3, 1, 1, 1, 10, 2, 6, 7. The 10th, 6th and 7 were a Grade 1, 2, & 3. He hasnt won since his Novice Chase days, and he started off with a handicap mark of 159, and today he runs off 20lb lower!!! He came 7th in the Grade 1 Thyestes where the average rated horse was 146, and today its 136. I will point out that Coko Beach beat him in that and both dropped 1lb but Coko Beach has to carry a massive 11st 12lb here on soft ground, so Death Duty could possibly overturn that this time.
Stone & Roses has plenty of stamin and stays all day. He was running a great race last time out when unseating his rider, if he can jump well here he should have big claims, soft ground is fine but he has won on heavy so wont mind any rain. He has big claims.
Torygrah hasnt won over fences yet, but has only run 3 times over them and come 3rd twice. this stepup in disntance should suit, he wont mind the ground or any rain. I wouldnt rule him out, as Elliott is shrewd and he could go very well. He has a very nice weight.
Any of the oabove can win but i will stick with my system
My Selection: Death Duty 11/1
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