7/01/22 3:05 Gowaran Park - Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase - System

 

1st Ontheropes 16/1 - 75

2nd Coko Beach 16/1 - 65

3rd Escaria Ten 8/1, Longhouse Poet 10/1, Ex Patriot 25/1, Chris's Dream 16/1 - 45

 Thought i would do a little system on this race and was surprised it came up with 2 horses who were well clear of the others, and there really isnt much between all the others. So ill concentrate on these 2. 

Ontheropes wears cheekpieces for the first time, which should bring out some improvement. He won thr Grade 1 Munster National on soft in October, this put him up in the handicap and he is now 10lb higher, but his stats suggest soft ground are what he needs here, as both his career wins have come on soft ground. He was 3rd here in 2020 in a Beginners Chase over 2m 4f, but he loves this type of track and his form on undulation tracks such as this are 1, 4, 3, 1. Although he has only won twice both those wins came on very similar conditions and the last was a grade 1 over 3m so this distance today should be fine. Its a career high mark though so needs another best, and maybe the cheekpieces can help aide him with that. 

Coko Beach won this last year and is 9lb higher in the handicap which wont be ideal, although Davy Russell takes the ride. He won last year on heavy ground and he wont get that here, in fact his stat on heavy are very good and has not been out the top 3, he hasnt been so lucky on soft ground, and that has to be really the only concern with the extra weight. However, we know he likes the distance and the track is fine. So he could run well again, its also Davy Russells only ride today. 

Of the others Eklat De Rire is a horse i like, but he is another who wants more rain here, i still think he would run well. Escaria Ten will love conditions though and distance is fine, track should be fine too. He has to run off a career high mark though , although no reason why not.

I will stick with my system, its very competitive though and anyone can win, but i would like to think the system has it right and the top 2 named will fill the top spots

My Selection: Ontheropes 16/1 


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