02/01/2022 2:20 Plumpton - The Sussex National System
2nd Go Whatever 13/2 - 60
2nd Seaston Spirit 12/1 - 60
3rd Blame The Game 25/1
Just a quick note to remind you that the scores are beased on stats only, its not a personal opinion, below i look at the stats and my personal opinion comes into it, but essentially its all about the stats.
Chirstmas In April score 40 and the majority of the rest scored 35 and only a couple of David Pipe runners scored lower. Just to explain this is all based on stats a horse has performed in the UK & Ireland, its harder to assess the form of horses who have run in France, like all David Pipes runners. He has 2 French National Winners here, and all will like the ground today but none of them have ever gone this far or if they did, they didnt run too well, so its a bit more of a guessing game with these, of the David Pipe runners though D'Jango scored 25, but Al Roc the 66/1 outsider scored 35, as he really will love conditions here, has top weight but the jockey claims 7lb, so might be one as you can get 8 places with bet365 at 20/1. Anyway i digress.
I See You Well just scraped into the lead here. He loves Plumpton with stats of 1, 1, F, 4, 1, 1, 1. his last win came here over 3m 2f. He is 5lb higher than that win with was last time out, but he won with 5L in hand. He was actually running very well in this very race 3 years ago when challenging but fell (his only career fall) and he is on the same handicap mark as that run 3 years ago. He wont mind the soft conditions, and he could run well again.
Go Whatever was 3rd last time out to I See You Well, he is much better in the weights today, he was well beaten by 9L and will have to go some to overturn that result, its possible though. He also has the visor added for the first time too which could help plus this horse loves the softer conditions and the more rain the better. So dont be surprised to see him run a big race here. Track will suit too.
Seaston Spirit is one of 2 former winners of the race (Christmas In April the other) and is 3lb better off this year. He is another horse who loves the soft conditions and the softer the better.He was 8th last time out in the London National but the ground wouldnt have been to his liking so you would expect to see a better performance here. His stats at Plumpton are 2, 2, 4, 1. He certainly has claims
Blame The Game goes for the fitst time headgear to assist here, and im looking at the stats here and cant see what it was that helped him score so well, which probably shows that the other runners here dont have much to recommend them today.He is only 3 times raced over fences, and he did run here last time when in the same race as I See You Well and Go Whatever, he was beaten 38L bu I See You Well, and i can tell you he wouldnt have scored points on that run, so that race isnt the sole cause of the top scorers. He probably would have wanted softer ground. He has run well over hurdles here over 3m 2f and is 10lb better off than that run, and that was the same class as today but the only difference there is he carried top weight and today despite being 10lb better off he carries 18lb less than that day, so i can see the hope there, just that it was hurdles then and today its fences. We shall see.
Christmas In April is another previous winner and scored 40, so we know the track and distance is fine plus the testign conditions. He is 11lb higher than that win though and carrying 9lb more than in that race, so has it all to do.
I will certainly stick to my system here and i think I see You Well and Go Whatever both have big chances, i wouldnt put you off either of them
My Selection: I See You Well 8/1
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