14/11/21 2:55 Cheltenham - Greatwood Hurdle
2nd Adagio 12/1 - 65
2nd Camprond 16/1 - 65
3rd Ballyandy 25/1 - 60
3rd Mount Windsor 80/1 - 60
4th Jesse Evans 4/1 - 55
Most the times when i do a system i dont know the prices, i prefer not to. It doesnt sway me because the stats dont change, its's just easier. 2 things surprised me about this system, one that Jesse Evans didnt top the list, and 2nd that Glory And Fortune did. Because i remember Jesse Evans popping up quite a few times but Glory & Fortune was slow and steady. Because, a horse stands out i presume its favourite, and Jesse Evans has been backed heavily, i can say im not surprised. And its why when i saw he was 4th on the list i wanted to post him up just to say he had good stats. Ill bfriefly look at him further on. Its still a very close race though and i wouldnt be surprised to see a big priced horse come up, and i hope the winner is above.
Glory And Fortune didnt like fences but has found his stride over hurdles. He will love the ground his stats are 1, 2, 8, 5, 1, 1. the 8th was over fences, all the rest over hurdles, and the 5th was the Scottish Champion Hurdle. His last run was good and since then 2 of the well beaten horses have since placed in Listed Hurdles. That race was the Welsh Champion Hurdle and the average rated horse was 139, and he was 134. Today the average is 137 but he is 8lb higher too. He carried 10st 7lb that day and now carries 11st 7lb. We shall see how harsh the handicapper has been!
Adagio has to carry around 11st 12lb though and thats because he was 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle here in March. His form at Cheltenham is 2, 1, 2. one of hos 3 wins came on good but the other 2 wins including a Grade 1 at Chepstow came on soft, so that would be my only concern, he has had a wind op though so that may show an improved performance. You cannot ignore him here.
Camprond opened his season by winning the Persian War Grade 2 Hurdle, its not bad and then picked up a much easier race as well at Cheltenham last time out. He drops back in distance which is a concern, despite winning a Maiden Hurdle over this distance. He looks like he has plenty of stamina. He could well end up in the places though.
Ballyandy next and he is one of the older boys at 10, and that is a slightl disadvantage itself, the oldes horse in the last 20 odd years was in 2002 when the 8 year old Rooster Booster won. Ballyandy was beaten 25L by Fame And Glory last time out, and i would be surprised if he could reverse that form however, he always finds a few gears at Cheltenham and his hurdles form are 3, 4, 3, 2, 8, 2, 3. (the 8th was in the Champion Hurdle) I do think he wants rain though, but last year he ran in this very race off a mark of 154, and came a very gallant 2nd, this year he is 8lb lower!! however, that run was on soft and this is good. He follows the same route as last year with a run at Ffos Las on his season debut, that was on soft last year and he was 2nd, this year he was well beaten on good ground, so for me the biggest concern apart from his age is that going.
Mount Windsor, needs to improve. But the ground is perfect and the trip is fine. He deserves his shot at this but he isnt really in the league of the big guns here. He scored so well because he has been so consistant over this distance and good ground.
Jesse Evans as i discussed stood out for me and was surprised he wasnt 1st or at worst 2nd. Anyway his last hurdles run was in the Galway Hurdle where he was 4th, thats pretty strong form seeing as he and Tudor City, came home in front of Embittered who as since won a Grade 3, and Cape Gentleman who was a head in front has won 2/2 including a Grade 3, the winner who was only 2L in front has also won a Grade 3 since. Its strong form. He was 2l in front of Tudor City (40) that day too, there is a 4lb swing in the weights but Tudor City is 9 now and as with Ballyandy that is a worry. I wouldnt ignore Jesse Evans, but price is short now.
I will stick ew with my system, it is a surprise, but i can certainly see why he scored so well.
My Selection: Glory And Fortune 14/1
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