13/11/21 2:15 Cheltenham - Paddy Power Gold Cup System
2nd Midnight Shadow 12/1 - 65
3rd Nietzsche 20/1 - 55
Protektorat and Galahd Quest both scored 45 and came 4th. So it was quite a close system and Manofthemountain has just topped it here. He has run twice at Cheltenham, one when he was 4th to Frodon over 3miles. He then won a Grade 2 over C&D in April, beating Magic Saint. Coole Cody and Up The Straight were well beaten by him that day. His stats on good ground are 2, 1, 1, 4, 2, 1, 2. So we know the ground and distance will suit, and he has won over C&D, he has slightly more weight to carry after that win but should run well here.
Midnight Shadow runs well here and his stats are 14, 1, 11, 1, 6, 2. If you cut it down to chases over 2m 4f - 2m 5f its 1, 6, 2. the 6th was in a Grade 1 Marsh Novice at the Festival. He has won on good ground previously, i do think he needs more juice in the ground though. That would be my only worry. His last 2nd here was over half a furlong further on soft, he was well beaten, it was the same class as today. His last run in the Old Roan Chase on his season debut was quite impressive seeing as he wasnt beaten far by Allmankind and Itchy Feet, that is good form, it was on good also. So you have to think if he brings that kind of form then he will go well.
Nietzsche is a strange one, because he can put in a good run sometimes, and he has won the Grade 2 Greatwood Hurdle here, but could only manage 8th in the Ultima at the Festival this year, although it was over 3m 1f and that was obviously too far for him. He will love the ground and the distance is sport on, i think the other 2 named are better chasers, but you never know with these right conditions he could go well.
Of the others, Protektorat who came 4th won the Grade 1 Maniesto Chase at Aintree, which puts him at the top of the pile, it also means he carries top weight. Its plain to see why he is fancied. Caribean Boy is a horse i have always thought he is a classy horse he needs Good ground and he hasnt had that since his last win, plus he needs this distance, I think he could run well. This is a very competitve race and most have claims to this. But i always have faith in my system and one horse comes top of that so i will stick with him
My Selection: Manofthemountain 20/1
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