10/10/21 3:55 Limerick - The Munster National
2nd Spyglass Hill 18/1 - 50
3rd Snow Falcon 16/1 - 45
4th A Wave Of The Sea 16/1 - 35
The last couple of systems havent been great but its based on the horses form when they are race fit, coming back off breaks is something my system doesnt like, although i try to take it into account. This though, most have been running a bit, only 2 are coming back off a break and neither made it into the top 4. So i am hoping this will be more accurate.........
Fairyhill Run you might recognise as a horse who came top of The Kerry National system i did, and she was well backed in that but was first reserve and didnt get in, Waitnsee came 3rd in that system and also didnt get in. Snow Falcon came 2nd and ran 7th (the ground was against him) and Top Moon who fell!
Anyway back to Fairyhill Run, she is on a career high mark, but she is getting better and better over fences, and this is is her toughest task to date, her last win had an average rating of 123, where she one cosily. Today its 134. The ground, trip and track will suit. In fact her stats at this track over fences are 1, 1. She wont want any rain, which none seems to be forecast. Now she has to prove it in this class of race. Bryan Cooper rode her for her last 2 races where they won.
Spyglass Hills stable mate is one of the favourites, i can see why, as his last win he beat subsequent Grade 3 winner Exit Poll, so thats pretty solid form, but Spyglass Hill can boast some nice form with a 2nd in the Grade 3 himself in April. Ignore his last run as it was over hurdles, and he is 3lb lower than his 2nd in the Grade 3. Ground, going and track are perfect and he will be sharper for his run over hurdles.
Snow Falcon will get the softer ground but wont want it to dry out. He is getting on now and at his peak he was a Grade 1 winner and that was when rated 148, he is 8lb lower today plus at his peak he was a 157 rated chaser. His last win was rated 156 in a Grade 2. He really does have a good chance if he can put it altogether.
A Wave Of The Sea steps down in class after coming 6th in the Kerry National, like Snow Falcon, he needs this kind of ground, so you will see a better run here from him. He has never been here but 5 of his career wins have come on tracks very similar to Limerick. He could go well at a nice price.
As you would expect, its a tough race and all have claims. One horse i was concerned about was the Top Moon had never won above 2m 4f, and that was the only worry i had that flagged up. Apaprt from that, you could go with any of these and get a good run. I will stick to my system though and hopefully, although she didnt run last time, this time she will and i hope she wins.
My Selection: Fairyhill Run 6/1
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