03/10/21 Longchamp Sunday

 

 Ground is officially Very Soft

1:15 Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium des Pouliches - RACLETTE 6/4 - is my main bet of the 2 days at Longchamp. Im not afraid to say this filly could be super special. Obviously she has to step up on her last win, but the ground and distance isnt an issue. Agartha is also a horse i have followed, she wont mind the distance or going but Racette looks special, the only concern with Racletter is she was only out 2 weeks ago. 

1:50 Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere - i managed to get this down to 3 runners, Ancient Rome, Angel Bleu & Accakaba - all will love the going and the distance is fine for them. But for me ACCAKABA 11/2 just edges it here. She just beat Fleur D'iris in the Prix Du Calvados against fillies, and Fleur D'iris has since gone on the win a Group 3. Accakaba does take on the boys here, but with her allowance i think she could maintain her unbeaten record. Angel Bleu will give her the most to think about, after winning the Group 2 Vintage Stakes on soft. 

3:05 Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - I have been very strict here, and shortlisted the runners. Because i want proven horses on this kind of ground and i mean this will be testing so horses who have won at 1m 4f on soft or heavier. Its left me with a shortlist of 6 runners, all have a great stall too, and there is a thing about number 9 stall never having a winner, i do pay stock to this as someone who loves a stall analysis. Stall 9 is occupied by Snowfall. I will start with Adayar as he actually has the worst stall of 11 in the race, and he was the more 'iffy' one as he has won on soft ground, and that was not over this distance and he was actually beaten by Third Realm in the Derby Trial over half a furlong shorter. Just really because of this at his price, i cannot back him. However, he comes in with some of the best form. Alenquer might be of surprise, but he is a winner at Royal Ascot on Heavy ground in a Group 2over 1m 4f and was 3rd to Hurricane Lane over C&D on very soft ground, also 2nd to Mishriff last time out which is solid form. I just dont think he can reverse the form with Hurricane Lane though. Bubble Gift has won over 1m 3f at this course, but was also beaten by Hurricane Lane over C&D, and was behind Alenquer, so Bubble Gift probably will not be able to reverse the form with Hurricane Lane. Tarnawa will love the ground and the trip, she actually won the Prix de L'Opera here last year on heavy ground. There is only one small niggle and that is she hasnt won at this distance on truly testing ground, but thats a minor niggle as she has won on yielding to soft at this distance. HURRICANE LANE 4/1 is my ante post bets but goign through them all he actually ticks ALL the boxes, the only negative is that NO St Leger winners has ever gone on to win the Arc, now records are there to be broken, and you can argue that no true mudlover has ever won the St Leger, but Hurricane Lane loves the soft ground, He won the Grand Prix du Paris over C&D on very soft ground, so it was dire out there, you want a horse with proven stamina in this race, and he certainly has that. I think the St Leger stretched him and was lucky it wasnt heavy that day, so this step back in distance on truly testing ground will be a boost for him. He has had a longish season too, but before the Leger he had a break so hopefully this wont be one too many. There is one horse i havent mentioned off the list and that is BROOME 66/1 i like to look closely at the outsiders in this and have done very well in this sphere with big priced ew horses and a 40/1 winner in Solemia. Purely based on the fact that they loved soft/heavy and they stayed. Broome could be this horse. His form on soft/heavy is 1, 2, 1, 13, 1, 2. the 13th was over 2 miles, but his form over 1m 4f on soft is 1, 2. the win was this year in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, and also 2nd this year to Wonderful Tonight in the Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot, i think thats good form. His form on good or good to firm is patchy but he is more consistant on the softer surface, and trained by Aidan O'Brien too, from stall 7, i would think he could run a big race. I was concerned he would be made pacemaker for Snowfall, but at Saint-Cloud he led from start to finish so i would be more than happy to see him jump out ahead. Of the horses not mentioned Snowfall, she gets ll the allowances which will really help in this ground, so she carries bottom weight. That really is a massive advantage. Now, although they say Snowfall goes on soft, the going in the Oaks was Good-Soft, i know there was debate about how soft the ground was, but her 2 official runs on soft she was 5th and 8th, beaten 12L in both, and she was beaten over C&D last time out. The Japanese are desperate to win this race and they have Chrono Genesis who was narrowly beaten by Mishriff, which is fantastic form. The major worry is the softest she has encountered in Yielding. another horse Love, i am a big fan, but i have huge doubts about the ground for her too. 

3:50 Prix de l'Opera Longines - no strong view of this race. Audarya came here last year in the Prix De l'Opera and was 3rd to Tarnawa, in very soft conditions. That gives her big claims here and think she will go very well. But for me its PALMAS 9/1 who catches my eye, she is a Group 1 winner and she won by 6L. The worry is the going, but her full sister Penny Lane ran some good races on very soft and heavy ground, so i am hoping it wont be an issue. Joan Of Arc, could run well too

4:25 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines - they say that you want to have a low stall in this race which is a worry for the favourite Suesa, and she has big claims on ground she wont mind, but i have to say last years 2nd and 2019 winner of this race GLASS SLIPPERS  9/2 must hold big claims as well, she goes so well here her stats are 1, 1, 2.

5:00 Qatar Prix de la Foret - Sagamiyra 13/2

5:30 Qatar Grand Handicap des Flyers Presente Par RMC - Favaritx SP

6:00 Qatar Prix de la Centieme Edition de l'Arc - Marillaman SP