02/10/21 Longchamp Saturday
12:23 Qatar Prix Chaudenay - Manobo has done nothing wrong so far and is unbeaten in 3 runs so far, and although i do not think the distance will be an issue, the ground causes me some concern and for that reason, his price of 8/11is not attractive. Kemari is by Dubawi so the softer ground might not be an issue. If Interpretation runs well it will do a lot for Hurricane Lane, as he was 4th in the St Leger, so we know the distance should not be an issue here, ground is a little worry. For me though i am taking a little risk on ALTER ADLER 10/1 - he was 2nd in the German Derby and the soft ground is not an issue, the worry is the step up in distance on soft. Its a tough race to start off with and i cannot have the favourite with those concerns so i am looking for the value.
1:33 Qatar Prix Daniel Wildenstein - THE REVENANT 6/4 looks the most obvious one here. He hasnt been in the form on his 2 season runs back so far, but both of those were on good ground, this horse loves the mud and his for on soft - heavy is 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1. trip is perfect. One EW horse i would give is Coeursamba 18/1 who beat Mother Earth over C&D in May when it was very soft and possibly too soft for Mother Earth who on soft managed to reverse that, but as a C&D winner and a filly who has shown softer conditions is fine, she might go well at decent odds
2:15 Qatar Prix du Cadran - my heart says Stradivarius, i just love him and he wasnt disgraced in the Arc last year, but he stays all day, the ground would be a slight worry though, as although he has won on soft, this will be deeper than he has raced on at this distance. Princess Zoe won this last year on heavy so she has big claims and i wouldnt put you off her, and Trushan will relish this ground and also has massive claims, but there is one at a large price that i keep coming back too..... STRATUM 33/1 you might think i am mad because he was well beaten at York by Stradivarius, the thing is, that was good ground and this horse is completely different when on soft/heavy ground. His flat form on soft reads like this 2, 1, 10, 2, 1, 1. now taking those and highlight the form on races over 2 miles on soft or heavy then its 1, 1. they were 2m 2f and 2m 5 and a half furlongs. I just feel on soft at that price you cannot dismiss this Royal Ascot Grade 1 winner over 2m 5 and a half furlongs on soft ground.
2:50 Qatar Prix de Royallieu - i am not sure i can see past VALIA 15/8 here, ground and distance are perfect and she is proven on both. Joie De Soir is certainly next best but has to prove it at this distance. She does get the 3yo allowance here so Valia has to carry 8lb more. Joie De Soir has beaten Valia last time out, but the softer ground and the step up in distance is much more in Valias' favour and i am happy to take her to reverse the form.
3:25 Haras de Bouquetot - Criterium Arqana - the favourite Green Fly does look rather good and will love the going and distance, however that stall is a big negative for me and although he looks good, i want to look elsewhere and my pin on PURPLEPAY 8/1 and he did win last time out over 1f further than today on soft in a Conditions race, so we know conditions wont be an issue. The stall is perfect and he could run well. British raider Pavlodar is interesting too and could be intresting, but another whose stall is possibly not ideal, although much better than the favourite
4:00 Qatar Prix Dollar - Magny Cours just worries me at this distance on this ground, if it was firm ground then i wouldnt worry but i think this just stretches his stamina a bit on this ground. I am taking a big risk here as i want a horse who stays in this ground and THIRD REALM 11/1 will certainly stay and he won the Derby Trial on soft beaten none other than Adayer & Scope (who won at Ascot of Friday) he then came 5th in the Derby, then disappointed twice, now the risk is because i actually think its not the trip that caused issues i think he wants it softer and all his siblings were very versatile and won on softer ground. its a big risk and one i am not too confident on but a small ew on Third Realm to finish the day
Comments
Post a Comment