05/06/21 The Derby - 4:30 Epsom - System
2nd Mohaafeth 13/2 - 85
3rd Bolshoi Ballet 11/10 - 80
4th Third Realms 14/1 - 75
and just for reference One Ruler scored 65 and John Leeper 60. They were clear of the rest of the field.
I have to say i was surprised by the one who scored most here. He hadnt even crossed my radar (silly i know), and this is why i do these systems, as it has a good look at ALL the runners. Also, you may notice that Saffron Beach scored 50 and was the highest, the boys here have all scored higher. We will find out if thats good or bad.
Hurricane Lane is the unbeaten son of Frankel, he is a full brother to Frankels Storm who is a class 3 winner over 1m 4f. There was always question marks to if Frankel had the stamina and we will never know, what we do know is that his offspring certainly do, with an impressive strike rate of 20% at this distance, and in fact even further too!! So watch out for the St Leger if he does go well here. His dam won over 2m and ran well at 1m 4f without winning. He won the Dante last time out and people were disappointed in High Definition as he was very much fancied, but Hurricane Lane was a very good winner and it may not have been the fluke people thought it was. He has a big chance and has a big chance in the St Leger too.
Mohaafeth is another son of Frankel, and these systems do not actually look at the breeding side so this is coincidental. Mohaafeth's half sister is a winner over 1m 4f, his dam was a winner at 1m 2f but she was out of Sea The Stars, so 1m 4f was well within her compass, but after getting her blacktype she was sent to the breeding barn. Since coming back as a 3yo Mohaafeth has done nothing wrong, he won nicely last time out in fact by 5L, it may have been flattered slightly in a small runner race, but he still won nicely. He will need to step up again but there is nothing to suggest he cannot.
Bolshoi Ballet is very interesting, the last time Aidan sent just one runner to this race was in 2001 when he won with Bolshoi Ballets' sire Galileo. So, it could point to what they think about him. There is no issue about trip with him. He won the Derby Trial at Leopardstown and he beat Mac Swiney that day, and in fact won the race by 6L. Mac Swiney since won the Irish 2000gns so thats not bad form at all. They only worry for me is the draw. I will explain in more detail at the end of this but its a big concern and he will have to be very very good to win, but its not impossible.
Third Realms won the Derby Trial at Lingfield which used to not really be a trial because before 2019 there had only been 1 winner of this trial that went on to win The Derby , and that was High Rise in 1998. In 2019 Anthony Van Dyck won the Trial before winning the Derby. In 2020 English King came 5th but he had the dreaded stall 1, so not a bad effort. Maybe the form of that race is getting better. We know distance will be fine and he could go well here.
My comments about the stalls is something i take seriously here, because the way the track runs, those in the low stall numbers can get trapped on the rail if they cannot lead or get into a postion before getting trapped on the rails. It will take a seriously good horse to win from the low numbers. Stall 1 has only ever had 1 winner of the Derby (New Approach 2008) and Stall 3 has also only ever had 1 winner (Oath 1999) stall 2 (Bolshoi Ballet) has NEVER had a winner. in fact stalls 4-14 have produced 84% of winners in 25 years, so they seem to be more the stalls to look at. there is much more to it than that, but this is the simpilist way i can show what a disadvantage those stalls are. Its not impossible, but it wont be easy to win. Adayar has stall 1, Bolshoi Ballet stall 2 and Gear Up stall 3.
I am happy to stick with my system here at nice ew odds
My Selection: Hurricane Lane 9/1
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