04/06/21 The Oaks - 4:30 Epsom - System
2nd Dubai Fountain 12/1 - 45
2nd Sherbert Lemon 33/1 - 45
2nd Save A Forest 50/1 - 45
3rd Mystery Angel 25/1 - 45
I am honestly surprised that there are no Aidan O'Brien runners who made the top positions here. Santa Barbara should appreciate the step up in trip and the connections really rate her, so but with a 1 and 4 to her name its not as easy to do stats when there are not many, saying that the system picked last years Derby winner and all he had done was win a Maiden.
Saffron Beach topped the stats just here, its extremeley close and nothing between any of them, so it goes to show how wide open this race is. To be honest the only worry with Saffron Beach would be the distance, her dam only raced at 7f -1m but possibly could have gone further. Her sire New Bay was 3rd in the Arc, so the distance wasnt an issue for him. Saffron Beach won the Oh So Sharp Group 3 last year and was 2nd in this years 1000gns. She is very tough, and will run her race.
Dubai Fountain won the Cheshire Oaks and the distance will not be an issue, in fact she will probably want further than this. In true Mark Johnston style she was raced a lot as a 2yo, and that means she is a lot more streetwise than some of the others, it could help her, but its also a reason why she has scored well, because she has the stats to use.
Sherbert Lemon does need to prove herself on this type of going, as he wins came on much softer ground. She did beat Save A Forest and Ocean Road last time out though in the Oaks trial. A race that Tecnique was bitterly disappointing in. Sherbert Lemon will get the trip and Epsom should not pose a problem either, its just the going that worries me.
Save A Forest came a close 2nd in the Oaks Trial but she is one who will want it drier and could easily reverse that form with Sherbert Lemon. Distance again is not an issue and Epsom should not be either, and could go well at a very big price. Just depends how strong the Oaks Trial was.
Mystery Angel was well beaten by Snowfall last time out, but did win the Pretty Polly on good to firm ground before than, im wondering if the 10 day gap wasnt long enough between races.Trip will suit
Of horses not mentioned Zeyaaah and Ocean Road are in stalls 1 & 2, and im pointing this out because there has been no winner from those stalls. Stall 1 is the worst unless the horse is a front runner and neither are, the reason being is because they can get trapped on the rail and have to find a way out. It will be very hard for those 2.
Technique and Teona i think are horses with potential and havent shown their best. Teona with first time hood really interests me.
Im not sure how good Aidans runners are this year, Santa Barbara is obviously well thought of though and shouldnt be ignored.
I will stick with my system here, as i said last year Serpentine came top of the Derby system and there wasnt a lot to go on, i thought my stats had gone mad, I trust in my system and hope Saffron Beach can at least place
My Selection: Saffron Beach 10/1
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