27/12/20 2:50 Chepstow - The Welsh National

 1st Secret Reprieve 7/2 - 80

2nd Truckers Lodge 9/1 - 60

3rd Ramses De Teillee 16/1 - 50

4th Captain Drake 25/1 - 45

4th Bobo Mac 18/1 - 45

Quite a tight little race for the minor places here but Secret Reprieve certainly sets the standard. He is 2/2 on heavy and although untested over this distance, he excelled over 3m on heavy here last time out and won very cosily. He looks to want a real test. Obviously he is up againts some seasoned warriors here who will not go down without a fight. He is 2/2 at Chepstow too both times on heavy. He is only 4lb higher than his last win here, and it will be interesting to see. He will need to jump better but has a perfect weight to carry in such testing conditions, and connections are in form. He could go very well. 

Truckers Lodge was 2nd in this last year, so this tells us 2 things, 1st is the ground isnt an issue and 2nd the distance isnt either. What does worry me is he was 139 last year and this year its 155. Last year he carried 10st 2lb and the jockey claimed 3lb, and this year the jockey claims 3lb but he has to carry 11st 8lb. That wont be easy, but he stays all day and will relish conditions. He just has a big task off that weight. 

Ramses De Teillee will like the going, he will stay but im worried about him staying on this ground with 11st 6lb on his back. He is on a career high mark and Yala Enki has a 1lb pull in the weights with him when RDT beat him by a Short head at Cheltenham. 

Captain Drake was well beaten by Secret Reprieve last time out, but he stays as proven when coming 2nd in the Midlands National on heavy ground. He is only 2lb higher than that run now and has a tongue tie applied for the first time. He carries 10st 7lb which is a good weight. He could run a big race. 

Bobo Mac came 3rd in the race won by Secret Reprieve and carries a good weight in this. I think that race maybe a good guide to this race as 3 of the top 5 home have scored well in this system. He wont mind conditions but will have to prove he stays, and there is no reason why he shouldnt. 

One horse not mentioned and that was the 2nd placed horse in the race one by Secret Reprieve, and that is The Two Amigos. He probably wont reverse the form, but at 12/1 represents good value. 

So my view from this system is that the Welsh National Trial could be a big guide to this race. You want a horse with a low weight and all of them do. Secret Reprieve, Captain Drake, Bobo Mac and The Two Amigos are horsesto consider here. I will stick to my system though

My Selection: Secret Repireve 7/2