05/12/20 3:15 Aintree - System

 

1st Might Bite 16/1 - 55

2nd Touch Kick 28/1 - 50

2nd Semetagel 10/1 - 50

3rd Modus 8/1 - 35

3rd Beau Bay 28/1 - 35

I cannot deny i am very happy that Might Bite is top here. He is my absolute favouirte. However this was not my doing, this is soley down to stats. And as you see, its pretty close. So why is he top?

Unlike the last system, Might Bite has never run over the National fences, however, his stats at Aintree are 1, 1, UR. He is a Grae 1 winner here, when winning the Betway Bowl. He goes well on a flat track with 4 wins from 9, with his stats looking like this 1, 2, F, 1, 1, 1, 5, 7, UR. He had lost his way a bit but his last run showed some spark, and he would have needed the run. He has also been eased 2lb for that run. He is 2/2 over 2m 5f albeit over hurdles. At his peak he was rated 172, he is now 150.Just shows you how far he has fallen from grace. However, if he shows some spark again over these fences, he has major claims. 

Touch Kick does have experience, with a 6th in this race last year and is now 1lb lower, and runs for new connections. He will love the going and the distance, and he jumps well except for some mistakes in this race alst year, and thats the thing that could give him issues. 

Semetagel goes for Paul Nicholls. He is 1lb lower than his last win. He actually came 3rd in this race in 2017, and is 2lb lower. That was on heavy that day and soft ground probably is better for him. Be worth watching Minellacelebration in the 1:30 as Minellacelebration beat him in his last race. So maybe a nice form boost. He could go well.

Modus runs well at Aintree, winning last time here, but has not faced the National fences yet. He was put up 8lb for that win, which gives him a tough task here. However, he will love the ground and the distance and has claims if taking to the fences. 

Beau Bay is 1lb lower than his last win. He is also 1lb lower than when 3rd here last year, so we know he wil like the fences and the track, and the going. He would have claims if he goes as well as last year.

My Selection: Might Bite 16/1



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