04/10/20 Sunday Longchamp

 

1:15 Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere

Due to conditions i need to find the horses who will go onthis ground because that will be the key. These are lightly raced so its even harder, but for me the standout form is NANDO PERRADO 13/8 who was 2nd to Campanelle at Deauville in the Prix Morny. That was soft that day and the winner could be special. Nando Perrado is also a winner of the Coventry, which is the best form on offer. The soft ground in France is not like the soft ground over here, we would call it heavy. He has to step up a furlong but he is bred to stay the mile. St Marks Bascilica has won a Maiden on soft, and run a great race to be 2nd in the Group 1 National Stakes, the may well deal ok with the ground, but i think he would prefer it a bit drier. Sealiway looks the best of the French.

 

1:50 Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium des Pouliches

I do like Pretty Grogeous in this and she is a winner on Soft which is a bonus, she looks to be very good and a worthy favourite. Her battles with Shale are well documented, and Shale is a very good horse. I cannot see her being out the top 3. But i am very drawn to FEV ROVER 5/1 who has won in these conditons and offers just a little value ew. She won at Deaulville a Group 2 in these conditons and the step up to a mile will suit. Group 3 winner Tiger Tannaka looks the big French danger with proven form on heavyground. She has beaten a few in here. La Jonction is possibly one to look at, as SKY bet are paying 5 places. At 50/1 she is unbeaten, the races were a maiden and condtions stakes, so its a big step up, but she is another proven on the ground. I doubt she can win, but with form on the going, may be worth a ew dabble for minor places.

 

3:05  Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

It would be a fairytale if ENABLE 1/1 could win this, and without doubt she is my selection, she has the class, she goes on the ground albeit not being her preferred ground, but without doubt she is the one to beat here. The 1m 4f on this type of ground, stretches her limits but she has the class.

Now picking Enable is too easy. My job is to find the horses who will go on or like the ground and will get the distance. 

Stradivarius i'll start with, he is another who would prefer better ground but he stays all day, he has the stamina, being a winner over 2m 4f on soft ground. He was just beaten by Anthony Van Dyck over C&D last time out, but it was good that day and the more stamina test, the more he will come into play. I think he is a BIG danger to Enable. Stall is a worry.

In Swoop will not mind softer conditions but 8/1 is not for me. Well beaten by Mogul last time out, Mogul is full brother to Japan and his other siblings are late maturers, so although a good effort, im not sure its in the league of the marker leaders. That brings me to Mogul to, well bred and will cope with the going but he will want better ground.

Sottsass is much more likeable, and in fact i backed him ew last year at a very big price. He came 3rd last year in similar conditions to today. If he runs to that standard then he has big ew claims again. My only worry would be that he has not been in the same type of form as last year, buthe hasnt encountered the exact conditions either. Do not discount him.

Japan came 4th last year, but his for this year has not been as good. They are supposed to get better with age, but Japan hasnt had a good year, including being well beaten by Enable. I actually like Serpentine, i didnt think his Derby win was a fluke, and what i dont understand is that after winning the Derby from the front. He was ridden differently when beaten by Mogul here over C&D last time out. And he underperformed. If he takes up the running again, he may have good ew claims. Another who would prefer better ground but will cope with the conditions. 

Raabihah could cope with conditons but not ideal and gets weight all round she should not be ignored with her weight she is carrying and she is bred for this type of distance,her 2nd last time out is a little concern though. Persian King is a horse i have followed a few times but a step up to a mile and a half on this ground is a major worry. 

Gold Trip is a horse who will love the going, and actually beat In The Swoop over 1m 3f on soft ground. I think he could be an outsider that could be value here. I am baffled as to why he is 33/1. Yes he is only a Group 2 winner, and his tactics of coming from behind is a worry, because its difficult to close in these conditions. He could pick up a place or 2. He has a good weight to carry. He does have the dreaded Stall 9 though!!

Way To Paris is also one to watch, 5th of 6 behind Anthony Van Dyck and Stradivarius in the Prix Foy, it was his first run since June, so not a bad effort as wasnt beaten far, was hampered coming out the stalls and it light him up a bit. Should cope well with conditions, he may be able tosneak in a place if he copes well. 

Sovereign looks to be pacemaker here, well beaten by Enable last time out, ground a concern too.Chachnak, Deirdre and Royal Julius, are here to make up the numbers. Cannot see any troubling the Judge. 

So all in all for me Enable is the one. Sottsass and Stradivarius are the dangers. And Raabihah,Way To Paris and Gold Trip are ones for the 4th place, if you can get more places with Bet365. For me though there is nothing in the class of the first 3 in the betting this year. 

1st Enable 

2nd Stradivarius

3rd Sottsass

4th Way To Paris

3:50 Prix de l'Opera Longines

Alpine Star ran a great race behind Palace Pier on heavy ground last time out, so the ground is not a worry. The 1m 2f on heavy is the worry for me. I can see why they are trying it but at her odds, i cannot go with her, her form is good, i just think this will really stretch her stamina, all her siblings are milers. Fancy Blue has beaten Alpine Star over half a furlong further, she is more likely to get the trip better than Alpine Star on this type of ground, the ground wouldnt be to her liking either. For me this could go to unbeaten Tawkeel who has won over distance on very testing conditions. She needs a little bit more but on this ground i think she has to be the one to beat. However, i am really drawn to AMBITION 16/1 - ground and trip are perfect. Audraya 12/1 beat her last time out, but i really think the more testing the better for Ambition, and i think she can turn the form around. 

4:25 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines

Beofre Battaash pulled out i backed GLASS SLIPPERS 9/4 she won this last year and just loves these conditions, she won at the Curragh in conditions that although she copes with, they are not her best, this mud is what she wants. Keep Busy and Make A Challenge both have been beaten by Glass Slippers and they would also prefer soft ground, hwoever i doubt they can reverse the form. Batwan would be my big price ew horse at 16/1. he is a C&D winner on this ground as well and could run very well. His recent form isnt encouraging but it was all on good ground, the more testing the better for Batwan.

 

 4:55 Qatar Prix de la Foret

 I can see why Earthlight is favourite, certainly the horse to beat, does go on this going. Untested over 7f on this type of ground though. Only run once over 7f and that was on good. ONE MASTER 3/1 is going for a record 3 wins in this, she has won on this going and she has major claims again. She has the stamina on this ground which will be needed. Tropbeau is the ew bet for me, 2nd to Earthlight last time out, will much prefer the softer conditions here. Lope Y Ferandez on this ground doesnt inspire confidence. Safe Voyage will cope with conditions but is probably looking at place claims.